Russia Blasts US for Sending Depleted Uranium Rounds to Ukraine
As part of a $1B aid package that includes $175M for weaponry, the US announced that it's sending to Ukraine depleted uranium rounds on Wednesday.
Following suit with the British who first announced they were sending such munitions in March, the US said that the 120 mm rounds it would be sending were made to arm the US-made M1A1 Abrams tank — 31 of which it plans to send Ukraine this coming fall.
These armor-piercing rounds were first produced by the US during the Cold War. They were used by the US against Iraq in the First Gulf War in 1991, and again in the 2003 invasion; they were also used in Serbia and Kosovo.
Pro-establishment narrative
Russia is obfuscating the truth when it says such weapons are made from nuclear components. Depleted uranium is incapable of causing a nuclear reaction and the IAEA classifies it as a toxic chemical. While there are some health risks attached, these are largely overblown by Russia which also uses the munitions, alongside many other militaries across the world.
Pro-Russia narrative
This is an inhumane move by the US that shows just how far Washington is willing to go in its attempt to weaken Russia. America is not satisfied with sacrificing this generation of Ukrainians but is prepared to irreparably damage the future ones as well. The long-term health risks of these weapons are well documented in places like Iraq, Serbia, and Kosovo.
Nerd narrative
There's a 4% chance that there will be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
New Zealand to Produce Lab-Grown Fruit
Amid a changing climate that could cause food insecurity, scientists at New Zealand's Plant and Food Research are attempting to grow fruit tissues inside a lab.
According to direction co-leader Samantha Baldwin, the idea behind diversifying the country's growing systems is to fill the gaps in the year where there might be "pressure on outdoor production."
While more than 80 companies across the globe are studying and producing lab-grown meat and seafood, Plant and Food Research is working with cells from blueberries, apples, cherries, feijoas, peaches, nectarines, and grapes.
Narrative A
If regulated and mass-produced ethically, lab-grown or farm-free food could make inexpensive and nutritional food available to everyone on a level never witnessed before by humanity. It will not just aid in global cooling and saving the planet but also increase the probability of eliminating food insecurity worldwide.
Narrative B
While farm-free food may attempt to solve world hunger, the technology will likely push millions of people who work in the farming and food processing industries into unemployment, with dairy farms predicted to collapse into bankruptcy as early as 2030 and the beef industry forecast to drop profits by as much as 90% by 2035.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the largest plant-based meat production capacity will be at least 107.2K metric tons per year from a single facility by Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Mexico Decriminalizes Abortion Nationwide
The First Chamber of Mexico's Supreme Court ruled Wednesday that federal criminal penalties for abortion are unconstitutional, reaffirming a similar decision issued in 2021 against a law in the state of Coahuila that federally decriminalized the procedure.
This comes as the advocacy collective Information Group on Reproductive Choice (GIRE) challenged the abortion section of the federal penal code, which the court agreed is in violation of human rights.
Abortion was previously legal across the country only in cases of rape, with states free to decide on its legality otherwise. Last week, Aguascalientes became the 12th state or federal district to decriminalize the procedure.
Left narrative
Though Mexican lawmakers still have to eliminate abortion from the penal code in a process that could take years, this ruling is great news for those long fighting for reproductive autonomy as the country will no longer criminally charge people for seeking or providing abortions.
Right narrative
This decision doesn't come as a surprise as Mexico's Supreme Court has quickly assumed cases regarding state-level abortion bans to overturn them. The only way to effectively protect the right to life from conception will be explicitly enshrining it in the country's constitution.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the United States before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China Considers Banning Clothes That 'Hurt Feelings'
The Xi Jinping administration is reportedly considering implementing a law that would forbid a range of behaviors, including dress or speech, that undermine people's spirit or "hurt the feelings of the Chinese people."
According to a draft of revisions to its public security law released by the standing committee of the nation's legislature, violators could spend up to 15 days in jail or be fined up to ¥ 5K (US$680).
The current proposal doesn't specify what kind of clothing or speech would be considered "offensive" by the PRC government.
Anti-China narrative
In the name of reforms, Xi Jinping has proposed an excessive and authoritarian law to punish citizens for dissent. In addition, the lack of clarity on what constitutes a "violation" could lead to abuse and infringe on personal rights. The feelings and spirit of a nation aren't fragile enough to be offended by someone wearing "wrong" clothes. The proposed law is just an attempt to penalize those who offend the CCP's sensibilities.
Pro-China narrative
Pres. Xi Jinping has led China to reform, develop, and contribute to world peace and development. Under his vision, nearly 100M Chinese people have been lifted out of poverty in just eight years while a project of modernization has been wildly successful. Chinese citizens believe in Jinping's leadership and decision-making as he highly values culture, puts people first, and works toward advancing national rejuvenation.
Nerd narrative
There's a 51% chance that Xi Jinping will continue leading China in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Climate Scientist Claims He Overstated Impact of Global Warming on Wildfires
Dr. Patrick T. Brown, co-director of the climate and energy team at The Breakthrough Institute, has claimed that he overstated the impacts of climate change on wildfires in an influential paper to secure publication in the scientific journal Nature.
The paper Brown co-authored, titled "Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California," was often cited by media outlets this summer. Brown says he chose to ignore important non-climate change-related factors, so as not to "dilute the story" he claims scientific journals hold to.
Brown claimed in an opinion piece that climate science "misinforms the public" by focusing on inducing alarm, adding that journals encourage authors to include misleading yet "eye-popping numbers" and scenarios to increase their stature and create "good headlines."
Pro-establishment narrative
If what the editor-in-chief of Nature says is true, Brown intentionally published a misleading paper that he could later walk back from in order to promote an anti-scientific climate skeptic narrative. Whatever his reasons for this are, the consensus is that climate change is being accelerated by human activity and is leading to more inclement weather. It's Brown, not the establishment, that has resorted to trickery in order to push a narrative.
Establishment-critical narrative
Brown has given credence to what many of us have long suspected climate science is being misused to promote alarmist narratives and political agendas. The claim that climate change is to blame for wildfires does not square with the reality of the fires being mostly started by humans, and that the percentage of land ignited by these blazes has shrunk year after year. Academia and the media work together to promote an activist agenda at the expense of real climate solutions.
Cynical narrative
A fair attempt at correlating wildfire risk to human-induced global warming can be seen in services for journalists like the World Weather Attribution Initiative. For wildfires, the Initiative states that there's likely an underlying climate signal, but wildfires are much more challenging to correlate due to issues like forest management and ignition sources. The Initiative also attempts to call reasonable balls and strikes for what specific wildfire events may, or may not, potentially be tied to global warming. In general, media outlets need to do a better job of sticking to long-standing, nuanced guidance from well-meaning scientists rather than getting swept up in either alarmist or denialist hype.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that wildfires will destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
VP Harris Confident in Biden Re-election
On Wednesday, US VP Kamala Harris told an interviewer that she’s confident she and Pres. Joe Biden will win re-election in 2024, and although she’s ready to succeed him “if necessary,” she believes he’s “going to be fine.”
Biden, who turns 81 in November, is currently the oldest serving president in US history and would be 86 by the end of a second term in office.
The comments come as 58-year-old Harris represented Biden and the US at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Democratic narrative
Harris’ record as a leader on key domestic and international issues makes her one of the best vice presidents in US history and proves she’s more than capable of being a future chief executive if needed. Even if she never ascends to the higher office, she’ll continue to be an asset for the administration and the 2024 campaign.
Republican narrative
While Harris is undoubtedly accomplished in many areas, her approval numbers are a reflection of her performance as vice president. From mishandling the border to fumbling through speeches, she's not qualified to continue in her current role, let alone as president.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that Harris will be the president of the US before inauguration day 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Google to Require Disclosure of AI-Generated Political Ads
Beginning in November, roughly a year before the 2024 US presidential election, Google will require a prominent disclosure for any political ads on its services — such as YouTube — that include audio or images synthetically altered or created by artificial intelligence (AI).
The rule, which will apply to "all verified election advisors," will demand a "clear and conspicuous" notice "in a location where it is likely to be noticed by users," Google said in its announcement on Wednesday.
Disclosures won't be required for AI edits such as cropping, resizing, or in-background edits that don't depict a realistic interpretation of real events. For the rest, however, ads without them will be blocked from running or removed later if initially able to evade detection.
Narrative A
Not only should tech companies be reviewing AI-generated images and videos, but the government should enact laws to prevent this insidious content from polarizing society even more. Until that happens, however, everyone must learn to carefully analyze the images they see online before spreading them onto the internet.
Narrative B
While Google isn't calling for an outright ban on deepfake images, requiring disclaimers is a slippery slope that could lead to forced labels on other content, such as satire and simpler forms of editing. Lying about what people said, and even doctoring images to fit a narrative, were around long before the advent of AI, so just because a new technology exists doesn't mean we should lose our right to use it how we please.
CNN Poll: Biden Approval at 39%
A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS shows US Pres. Joe Biden with a 39% approval rating in addition to other negative opinions of the job he’s doing and his chances of winning re-election in 2024.
Among those polled, 58% said Biden’s policies have made the economy worse — up eight points since last fall — 70% said things are going badly in the country, and 51% said the government should do more to solve the nation’s problems.
In relation to 2024, 46% of registered voters said any Republican nominee would be a better choice than Biden, while 32% said the Democratic incumbent would be better than any GOP nominee.
Republican narrative
This continues the barrage of bad news for Biden, and Republicans should be motivated. Americans, even in his own party, are acknowledging the terrible job he’s doing. Beware, though, because a desperate Biden is going to try to scare voters to pull out a win. But the electorate should see through his scare tactics and pull the lever for the GOP nominee.
Democratic narrative
These results should be taken with a grain of salt From disinformation to conspiracy theories, the forecasts are tainted by a largely uninformed electorate and media that's hyper-fixated on ratings — which are a notoriously fluctuating metric. Biden is doing a great job and, just as the political analysis in the lead-up to the midterms was wrong, will likely prevail this coming year.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 40% chance that Trump will beat Biden – if they’re the nominees – in the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Palestinians Set Out Terms For Saudi-Israeli Deal
Officials from the Palestinian Authority (PA), including PA intelligence chief Majed Faraj and Secretary-General of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Hussein al-Sheikh, held talks in Riyadh with their Saudi counterparts on Wednesday, with the Palestinian representatives reportedly asking for a cash boost and more control of land in the West Bank.
The officials reportedly also asked for a "complete cessation" of Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank, the re-opening of the US consulate in Jerusalem — the diplomatic mission to the Palestinians — and the resumption of US-brokered negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians from where they stopped in 2014.
Saudi Arabia reportedly seeks greater military cooperation with the US and US support for its own civil nuclear program. Regarding concessions from Israel, the kingdom wants more meaningful changes in Israeli policy toward the Palestinians.
Pro-Israel narrative
A normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia would not only benefit the region as a whole but also the Palestinians. A good deal would satisfy all parties involved, and could potentially lay the groundwork for the future resumption of peace talks.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Ultimately, a deal between Israel, the US, Saudi Arabia, and the PA only benefits the leadership of those actors, as opposed to the group of people that this issue is centered around — the Palestinian people. Palestinian Pres. Mahmoud Abbas is deeply corrupt and unpopular, and he and his cronies are essentially asking that Riyadh pay them hush money. Saudi Arabia and the PA are selling the Palestinian people for cheap.
Study: Under 50 Cancer Rates Surged Over Last 30 Years
Cancer diagnoses for patients under the age of 50 have increased by nearly 80% over the last 30 years, according to a comprehensive study by BMJ Oncology. Scientists are citing a confluence of factors for the uptick.
The study includes data from 204 counties and examines 29 types of cancer while delving into new cases, deaths, health implications, and risk factors for people aged 14 to 49. The study also measured changes between 1990 and 2019.
Global cases of early-onset cancer rose from 1.82M in 1990 to 3.26M in 2019, while cancer deaths in young adults under 50 increased by 27%. More than 1M people under 50 die of cancer annually.
Establishment-critical narrative
In a modern, artificial world, nearly everything we eat, drink, and consume has the potential for contact with cancer-causing elements. Therefore, it's no surprise that early-onset cancer has risen so rapidly over the last 30 years. Soda, for example, is chocked full of high amounts of sugar and can lead to obesity, and there are so many more unnatural compounds that make the “diet” versions so dangerous. Our leaders may pay lip service to health and sustainability, but the fact is that large corporations continue to pump out dangerous artificial consumables that are making us sicker than ever.
Pro-establishment narrative
There are many factors contributing to the rise in early-onset cancers, and researchers are determined to get to the bottom of this problem. Obviously, not smoking tobacco and overconsuming alcohol can go a long way in preventing cancer along with regular exercise and a balanced diet. While the BMJ Oncology study may seem alarming, cancer still disproportionately affects older people, and young people can take simple, high-leverage measures to reduce their risks and treat cancer in its earliest stages.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the mean year relative survival rate of all cancers for both sexes in the United States will exceed 75% by April 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.