ASEAN Summit Kicks Off Amid Regional Strife
Southeast Asian leaders have gathered in Indonesia’s capital Jakarta for their final summit this year to discuss a litany of divisive issues including Myanmar’s civil conflict, violent disputes in the South China Sea, and the tense US-China rivalry.
The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting, which started on Tuesday under tight security, will be followed by wide-ranging talks with Asian and Western counterparts on Wednesday and Thursday.
President Joe Biden, as well as China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin, will be absent. Vice President Kamala Harris, Premier Li Qiang, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov represent the three powers, respectively.
Narrative A
Joe Biden’s absence from the ASEAN summit came down to priorities, and the US president decided that attending the G20 meeting in India was more important than addressing the ASEAN leaders. Moreover, the US is still sending Vice President Harris to the meetings, which is hardly a snub of the bloc. Ultimately, it's hard to be in two places at once and Biden had to choose which foreign summit to attend.
Narrative B
Skipping the ASEAN gathering in Jakarta is a shortsighted mistake that contradicts the Biden administration's alleged willingness to build a stronger relationship with Asia as a whole to counter China. It's certain that some countries are more important to the US than others, but snubbing Indonesia, a vibrant democracy and a major regional power, suggests that the US wants simply a marriage of convenience.
Pro-China narrative
Biden’s absence from the ASEAN summit is far more calculated and nefarious than it seems on the surface. His administration is solely concerned about the region when it comes to its geopolitical tensions with China as it looks to turn ASEAN countries against Asia’s largest economy. The fact is, ASEAN countries haven’t bent their knee to the US, so Biden is sending a message by skipping their summit.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership will have at least 12 parties on December 31, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Kim Jong Un to Meet Putin for Weapons Talks
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is expected to travel to Russia this month in order to meet with Pres. Vladimir Putin and discuss potential weapons sales, according to a US official who briefed reporters on Monday.
Based on military intelligence cited by the official, whose comments were first reported by the New York Times, the meeting is likely to take place in the eastern Russian port city of Vladivostok — given its proximity to North Korea — though exact details remain unconfirmed.
According to the report, Putin is aiming to secure artillery shells and anti-tank missiles from North Korea. Kim is reportedly seeking technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines from Moscow.
Anti-Russia narrative
As Russia increasingly turns to countries like North Korea and Iran, these developments underscore just how isolated Putin has become. Russia is desperate for weapons amid issues with its floundering arms industry and related supply-chain problems.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia is a neighbor of North Korea, and so to seek harmonious relationships and benefits through mutual interests — rather than discord and a policy of isolationism — is both inevitable and productive for both nations.
Nerd narrative
There's a 31% chance that North Korea will possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 nuclear warheads before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Web Summit Founder: PRC Could Dominate Tech Sector
Paddy Cosgrave, the founder of the Web Summit, said the West has lost its lead on tech and innovation after being in the top position for half a century. He predicts that China will dominate the world of technology in the coming decade.
Cosgrave said China will emerge as a global technology giant because of the mutually reinforcing role of the public and private sectors.
The Irish co-founder of the global tech event was critical of the US and European countries, arguing that they "find it difficult when companies from elsewhere in the world outcompete them."
Pro-China narrative
China's rapid rise to technological and economic stardom is due to the West's underestimation of its culture and political system. When Washington first welcomed Beijing into the World Trade Organization 20 years ago, it thought China would have to adopt the same political system to achieve the same economic growth — that assumption has proven to be a grave mistake. Even many of the Chinese people believe their government is the reason for their prosperity, which shows the West needs to redesign its China strategy.
Anti-China narrative
Between the US' recent boost in domestic production and its anti-corruption probes into Chinese companies, the PRC's brief rise toward matching the West technologically has come to an end. Furthermore, the Chinese education system does not foster creativity — a key component of Western values that are necessary to become a world leader. Until Beijing can rid its economy of rampant corruption and underwhelming innovation, it will never surpass the US.
Nerd narrative
There is an 82% chance that there will be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Moroccans Protest Over Tourists Killed in Algerian Waters
On Monday, dozens of Moroccans rallied outside the parliament in Rabat to urge the government to challenge the Algerian state after its coast guard killed two tourists who allegedly crossed the maritime border between the two Mediterranean countries.
Organizations present at the protest, including the Moroccan Association for Citizenship and Human Rights, are reportedly mulling over filing a lawsuit in international courts against the leaders of the Algerian Army.
Separately, Morocco's National Council for Human Rights strongly condemned the Algerian coast guard for using live ammunition against unarmed civilians — deeming the incident a serious violation of human rights laws and international standards.
Narrative A
It's not only outrageous but criminal that Algerian coastguard officers have shot tourists who were trying to return to Morocco's Saidia resort after their jet skis mistakenly drifted to Algerian waters due to bad weather. International law recognizes the fundamental right of people in distress to receive help and bans the use of live-fire ammunition against unarmed civilians.
Narrative B
After previously intercepting three jet skis that conducted smuggling operations across Algerian territorial waters — in a border region that has experienced increased activity of drug trafficking gangs and organized crime — Algeria's coast guard issued an audible warning to the group several times but the passengers refused to comply and fled with dangerous maneuvers. While these deaths are undoubtedly tragic, authorities were left with no options.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Morocco will recognize Western Sahara by December 2119, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Russian General Seen in Public for First Time Since Wagner Mutiny
A photo posted online appeared to show a Russian general who had not been publicly seen since the Wagner mercenary group launched a short-lived rebellion in June.
Sergei Surovikin is believed to have been close to the head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a plane crash on the outskirts of Moscow last month. Reports suggested Surovikin had foreknowledge of the mutiny attempt, but failed to notify superiors up the chain of command.
He was last seen publicly in a video he released hours into the mutiny — in it, he urged Prigozhin and his fighters to give up their plans. Since then, his fate remained a mystery and rumors swirled that he was arrested, though this was never officially confirmed.
Pro-establishment narrative
According to US officials, Surovikin knew in advance about Prigozhin's rebellion but failed to act or inform his higher-ups. This is the reason for his short-term imprisonment and his disappearance from public view.
Pro-Russia narrative
Claims that Surovikin had prior knowledge of the mutiny are simply gossip and speculation, aimed at creating discord within the Russian military. His removal from his post was for unrelated reasons that remain undisclosed.
Nerd narrative
There's a 95% chance that Vladimir Putin will be President of Russia on January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study: Online Pharmacies Could Save Patients Millions
According to a study published Monday in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine, Americans could potentially save millions each year by buying prescription drugs through online pharmacy discount programs — such as GoodRx and Amazon Pharmacy — rather than traditional insurance plans and retail pharmacy chains.
Comparing out-of-pocket payments from the 2020 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to the 2023 counterfactual discount card pricing of Amazon Prime and GoodRx Gold for 20 generic medications, it found that Amazon and GoodRx were about 20% and 43% cheaper, respectively.
The researchers from the University of Toledo in Ohio, who analyzed those with private health insurance, public health insurance, and no insurance, also found that at least 1 out of 5 prescriptions were cheaper through Amazon or GoodRx compared to traditional out-of-pocket payments.
Pro-establishment narrative
Between the sky-high prices of pharmaceuticals in America and the growing demand for online services in the wake of the COVID pandemic, Americans both want and need cheap and efficient online pharmacies like the services offered by Amazon. Beyond the cost-effectiveness of online deliveries, these transparent services will also force drug manufacturers to lower prices if they wish to remain competitive. The US is financially drowning over what should be an easily affordable product, but, thankfully, e-commerce has a proven solution.
Establishment-critical narrative
While large pharmaceutical corporations functioning as "platforms" seem to be the future of the industry, small, independently-owned pharmacies are actually more efficient and popular than the big chains. While online corporations have advantages over brick-and-mortar franchises like CVS and Walgreens, vital mom-and-pop drugstores are being left out of the conversation. Government policies are geared toward supporting these goliath companies, so we should rewrite the law to boost local pharmacies rather than national chains or e-commerce giants.
Report: Hollywood Strikes Cost California Economy $5B
After four months, the joint Writers Guild of America (WGA)-Screen Actors Guild and American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) strike has reportedly cost the California economy an estimated $5B, exceeding initial estimates made by experts.
Kevin Klowden, chief global strategist at the Milken Institute, which conducted the research, says the industries taking the hardest hit include the support services of Hollywood from around the globe – including restaurants, caterers, construction and transportation services, dry cleaners, and rental companies.
In May and July, around 11.5K writers represented by the WGA and 160K actors represented by the SAG-AFTRA went on strike as negotiations with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), the representation for Hollywood studios and production companies, stalled. As a result, all TV and movie production has stopped with no clear date to resume.
Narrative A
The time has come for studios and streaming companies to meet workers’ needs in terms of compensation and address their concerns about AI. These companies are attempting to severely cut writers’ ability to live while it’s the union members who create the content and then promote it. This strike is having a terrible impact beyond the writers’ and actors’ lives, and the studios should do what they can to end it.
Narrative B
While there’s no one worth backing in this battle between the elites on both sides, the actors and writers are acting particularly privileged in this disagreement. Rather than holding the entertainment industry hostage over AI, they should use the technology to supplement and improve their work. It's time to get back to work before even more local economies are decimated.
UN: Invasive Species a Threat to Biodiversity, Economy
The UN Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) on Monday revealed that 37K alien species have been released by humans into the wild worldwide – with more than 3.5K of those proving to be harmful.
The report — the group's first since 2019 — blames these invasive species for spreading diseases and putting food supplies and livelihoods at risk.
The group of 86 researchers from 49 countries also determined that these species cost the global economy $423B each year and are at least partly responsible for 60% of all plant and animal extinctions.
Narrative A
Human activity and climate change are contributing to the increase of invasive species and the world must take responsibility. It’s imperative that countries take this threat seriously and do what they can to prevent the spread, especially in cases where species are sometimes introduced on purpose without consideration of the risks.
Narrative B
Every country must do what it can to mitigate this problem, but large volumes of trade between Europe and North America has caused those areas to be responsible for an inordinate amount of these introductions and displacements, so they should assume much of the responsibility for slowing the spread of these species.
Narrative C
While the findings of this report must be taken seriously, they must also be taken cautiously. "Invasive" is often used as a blanket term to refer to "bad" species, while "native" is ascribed to "good" ones. This creates a rigid dichotomy that doesn't consider how each invader individually impacts the ecosystem, with some undoubtedly wreaking havoc but others having little — or sometimes even positive — impacts.
Hong Kong Court Rules in Favor of Same-Sex Partnerships
On Tuesday, Hong Kong's top court ruled that the city's government must provide new regulations to legally recognize the rights of same-sex couples.
The ruling, made by Hong Kong's Court of Final Appeal, came after a five-year-long legal challenge by LGBTQ+ rights activist Jimmy Sham and was the first time that the court directly addressed the issue of same-sex marriage in Hong Kong.
Sham first asked for a judicial review in 2018 after the lower courts dismissed his challenges, which argued that Hong Kong’s laws ignoring foreign same-sex marriage violate the constitutional right to equality.
Left narrative
This is an exciting victory for LGBTQ+ activists in Hong Kong and abroad. Same-sex couples deserve the same dignity and respect as heterosexual couples, and establishing a legal framework of recognition will positively impact the LGBTQ+ community in Hong Kong and improve the territory's reputation.
Right narrative
While everyone, regardless of sexual orientation, should be protected from discrimination, this ruling paves the way to a direct contradiction to Hong Kong's constitutional stance on traditional family and marriage — the bedrock of its society.
Narrative C
While legal recognition of same-sex couples is better than nothing, Hong Kong still has a long way to go before equality. The court unanimously dismissed challenges requesting the recognition of foreign same-sex marriages or the approval of same-sex marriage. This is only a partial victory.
Texas AG Ken Paxton Impeachment Trial Begins
The impeachment trial of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton began Tuesday as Republicans in the state’s Senate must decide whether or not to oust the thrice-elected politician accused of corruption or stand behind the prominent ally of former Pres. Donald Trump.
Paxton, a long-time conservative hero in the state, was impeached by an overwhelming majority of the GOP-led Texas House of Representatives over claims that he used his power to help a donor, Austin real estate developer Nate Paul, who allegedly granted Paxton favors in return.
Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a Paxton ally, will preside over the trial, which started with the Senate clerk reading each of the House’s 20 articles of impeachment. The two sides made their opening statements, with the House going first, followed by Paxton’s side.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's a sad yet common reflection of our times that the political establishment can pursue sham impeachment trials to attack political opponents. We’ve seen this political lawfare ramp up with the endless attacks against Trump, and we are seeing it now against Ken Paxton. Unfortunately, this issue isn’t exclusive to one political party and is a signature part of Washington's so-called democracy.
Pro-establishment narrative
Paxton is a corrupt politician who abused his power for years. While Paxton may be popular among Texas voters who remain entranced by Donald Trump, no one is above the law, especially a state attorney general who has sworn to uphold and enforce it. Senators cannot sit by and allow a crooked attorney general to remain in power. This is about maintaining the integrity of the Texas government, not partisan politics.