Anti-Putin Militias Overrun Russia's Belgorod Region
Two paramilitary groups crossed from Ukraine into Russia's Belgorod region on Monday, overrunning a border checkpoint in the settlement of Kozinka, resulting in armed clashes that injured a number of civilians.
Russian officials alleged the groups were Ukrainian saboteurs and said that the Russian military, the National Guard, and the Federal Security Service were taking "necessary measures to eliminate the enemy." They further alleged the move was initiated to divert focus away from Russia's capture of the Donetsk city of Bakhmut over the weekend.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials denied responsibility, alleging the groups were made up of Russian citizens that opposed Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin's government. Kyiv identified the groups as the Liberty of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps, and did not comment on whether they had assisted them.
Pro-Russia narrative
These attacks in Russia's Belgorod region were perpetrated by Ukrainian saboteurs with the help of the country's security services. Russian authorities are on scene and are taking the necessary steps to eliminate the threat.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Ukraine has no involvement in these attacks. These movements are being carried out by Russian citizens who support Ukraine's fight against Vladimir Putin's tyranny.
Nerd narrative
There's a 4% chance that a coup or regime change will take place in Russia before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Italy: Meloni Govt. Accused of 'Ruthless' Influence Over State Media
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's right-wing government has been accused of trying to bend Italy's public broadcaster RAI [Radiotelevisione Italiana] to its will after a series of high-profile departures, including left-leaning talk show hosts Fabio Fazio and Luciana Littizzetto.
This comes as the former managing director of RAI, Carlo Fuortes, resigned earlier this month, claiming that the state-funded TV and radio outlet is undergoing an ideological purge on the orders of the new government.
While Fuortes was replaced by the government-appointed RAI manager Roberto Sergio, the former RAI board member Giampaolo Rossi — who is backed by Meloni's Brothers of Italy party — has become director-general.
Left narrative
The Meloni government couldn't wait to get their hands on the levers of state media power, and now we know why. Not only is the ultraconservative regime taking over state media but all state-run cultural departments as well. Brothers of Italy is currently trying to disrupt decades of antifascist progress, and shaping the public discourse is step one in this regressive effort.
Right narrative
Each report on Giorgia Meloni's cultural policies is baseless. The left-wing media globally despises her not because her ideas are wrong or she's evil, but because she has common sense beliefs and promotes true Italian culture. The left needs to invoke fear in the public to blind them from the fact that its decades of tearing apart the nuclear family and religion have been a net negative to society.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that South Tyrol will secede from Italy before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Twitter Buyout: Judge Throws Out Shareholder Lawsuit Against Musk
US District Judge Charles Breyer in San Francisco, Calif. ruled Monday to dismiss a class-action lawsuit against Twitter owner Elon Musk. The lawsuit claimed Musk cheated shareholders several times last year in the course of buying the social media company for $44B.
Breyer said the plaintiff, William Heresniak — who filed the suit one month before Twitter accepted the buyout on Oct. 27, 2022 — lacked standing to sue because he challenged "wrongs associated with" Musk’s buyout rather than the fairness of the buyout itself.
Breyer also ruled that Heresniak failed to prove that he was harmed by Musk's belated disclosure of a 9.2% stake in Twitter, which he said allowed the billionaire to buy more shares at lower prices before the buyout was announced.
Narrative A
Musk's lawyers justifiably characterized this lawsuit as a "disjointed laundry list of — often irrelevant — grievances," and Judge Breyer agrees. While Musk may have enriched himself as a result of the buyout, even though the company has since lost half its value, Heresniak didn't lose any money from it. There was no proof the plaintiff actually lost any cash over this.
Narrative B
Though company acquisitions are typically mutually beneficial agreements for both buyers and sellers, Musk's decision to publicly bid on the company — and then abruptly pull out of the deal — was not a typical acquisition. Musk did eventually pay the $44B offer that he went to court over, but that doesn't take away the dip in share prices that occurred between the day he first announced his bid and the day the deal went through.
Colombia Suspends Ceasefire With EMC-FARC Rebels
Colombia's Pres. Gustavo Petro has unilaterally suspended a ceasefire with the rebel group Estado Mayor Central (EMC), a dissident offshoot of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), allowing the military to resume operations in four southern provinces.
This announcement comes two days after the National Organization of the Indigenous Peoples of the Colombian Amazon (OPIAC) denounced the killing of four indigenous minors who tried to escape after being forcibly recruited by the EMC's Carolina Ramírez Front in the Putumayo department.
The 3.5K-strong group has denied such allegations, warning Bogotá that the end of the bilateral truce contradicts the Petro government's "total peace" policy while also claiming that this move will bring on war.
Left narrative
Though significant obstacles remain, the fact that Colombia and its leaders have indicated there is hope for peaceful dialogue shows that this historically violent Latin American nation may have turned over a new leaf. It won't be easy to persuade all stakeholders to reach an agreement, but Petro has already conducted more diplomacy than his predecessors.
Right narrative
It's evident that Colombia needs total peace, but Petro's disastrous plan is encouraging illegal narco-terrorist armed groups to keep committing crimes as they will be rewarded with total impunity. Instead of allowing asset laundering operations to benefit criminals, Colombia should bring these groups to justice and force them to pay sanctions and hand over their tainted money to the Colombian people.
Cynical narrative
Petro's "Total Peace" plan offers a general framework to open dialogue and is a step towards achieving his ambitious goal, but the strategy is risky as there is no alternative if negotiations go wrong or if criminal groups refuse to lay down their arms. Most problematically, this proposal fails to tackle the roots of violence in Colombia and could further decentralize groups, as evidenced by the FARC's demobilization.
UK Declines to Return Ethiopian Prince's Remains
Buckingham Palace has reportedly denied requests to return the remains of an Ethiopian prince who was buried in the catacombs of St George's Chapel in Windsor Castle in the 19th century.
The British Army brought Prince Alemayehu to the UK at age seven following the defeat of his father, Ethiopian Emperor Tewodros II, at the battle of Magdala in 1868. He arrived as an orphan after his mother died en route and was taken under the wing of Queen Victoria before his death from what was likely pneumonia at 18.
Descendants of Prince Alemayehu had requested the British royal family return his remains to his homeland, saying "it was not right" for the prince to remain buried in the UK as it's "not the country he was born in."
Pro-establishment narrative
It's not right to pressure Windsor Castle on this matter, as there's a valid reason to continue to hold Prince Alemayehu's remains in the UK. While it's tragic that he was dislocated from Ethiopia and there is a case for his repatriation, identifying and exhuming the prince wouldn't be possible as there are dozens of bodies buried in the catacombs.
Establishment-critical narrative
Though the logistics of exhuming the remains are complex, it's unfair to keep Prince Alemayehu's body in a foreign country as his rightful resting place is next to his father in Ethiopia. Moreover, the UK — which also plundered Ethiopia to steal its gold, jewelry, and exotic animals — can use this moment to atone for its imperial past and diplomatic blunder by sending the prince's body back to where it belongs.
Florida Sued for Chinese Citizens Property Ban
Following Gov. Ron DeSantis's (R-FL) signing of a bill that restricts people from China and six other countries from buying property in Florida earlier this month, a group of Chinese Florida residents filed a lawsuit on Monday, arguing that the bill is unconstitutional and violates the Fair Housing Act.
In addition to Chinese nationals who aren't US citizens or green card holders, the bill also affects most citizens of Cuba, Venezuela, Syria, Iran, Russia, and North Korea, barring them from owning property within 10 miles of any military installation.
There's still uncertainty regarding the specifics of the bill, which has led to confusion among Chinese nationals who have already purchased property in Florida. The legislation has been altered to halt broad bans on Chinese Americans owning property statewide and lessen the distance restrictions.
Republican narrative
Though the details need to be ironed out, this bill is a sensible measure in countering Chinese and other foreign states' influence in the US. For far too long, adversarial nations, namely China, have taken advantage of the US' free market to advance their geopolitical interests. Hopefully, more states will follow DeSantis' lead.
Democratic narrative
Though China may not be a benign force in US domestic politics, this bill is too broad, thus making it inherently discriminatory. The US prides itself on being the home of enterprise and freedom, and barring those interested in such ideals from pursuing their dreams is wrong. The US must prevent such discriminatory practices from occurring.
EU Seeks Court Backing in $14B Apple Tax Fight
EU competition regulators appealed to the union's highest court on Tuesday to override a lower court decision and make Apple pay €13B (US$14.3B) in Irish back taxes.
The European Commission (EC) said in 2016 that two Irish tax rulings had artificially reduced Apple's tax burden for over 20 years. However, the General Court said in 2020 that regulators hadn't met the legal standard to show Apple had an unfair advantage.
EC lawyer Paul-John Loewenthal told the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) that the previous ruling was "legally flawed" and should be set aside. Apple disagreed, arguing that it had paid its fair share of taxes in the appropriate country.
Narrative A
Apple has paid its fair share of taxes under the Irish tax code, including a corporate tax of $7.69B in 2022, a 73% year-over-year increase. Furthermore, the profits that the Commission says should have been taxed in Ireland, totaling a whopping €20B, were already taxed in the US.
Narrative B
This case will decide whether US-based corporations — and the billions of dollars they generate outside the US — will be able to hide their profits from other governments. Apple Sales International and Apple Operations Europe receive most of their revenue from outside the US, which clearly shows why that money should be taxable in Ireland.
Guam Braces for 'Direct Hit' from Super Typhoon Mawar
Guam — the remote Pacific Island territory of the US — is bracing for a direct hit from the intensifying Super Typhoon Mawar. On Tuesday, the cyclone was 195 miles southeast of the island and is expected to make landfall as a Category 4 storm packing up to 150 mph (241 kph) winds.
In addition to high winds, the storm is expected to bring a deluge of rain that will cause catastrophic flooding, with the National Weather Service (NWS) in Guam directing residents to remain "in a solid, reinforced concrete structure."
Guam's Governor Lou Leon Guerrero has declared a state of emergency for the island's 168K residents and three American military bases ahead of the major impacts as Mawar's eye is expected to pass over the island.
Narrative A
Climate change is real and it's happening before our eyes. The warming climate is increasing the temperatures in the oceans. This blistering hot water is fueling hurricanes and cranking up the energy that results in devastating winds and pounding surf. The natural variables that slow storms down and limit strengthening are weakening, again due to changes in our climate. The good news is that as storms continue to increase in frequency and magnitude our tools for tracking and monitoring are growing more accurate. If we aren't going to limit the earth's warming we can at least adequately warn people who are in the impact zone.
Narrative B
It's easy to dismiss any extreme weather event as a consequence of human-induced climate change, but in reality they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors that have nothing to do with it. The history of this planet shows that temperatures fluctuate in cyclical patterns and the changes we see are not necessarily out of the ordinary. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.
Nerd narrative
There is a 48% chance that New York City will experience a hurricane by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Surgeon General: Social Media May Harm Kids
US Surgeon General Vivek Murphy on Tuesday released a report warning that social media can have a “profound risk of harm to the mental health and well-being of children.”
Murphy called on legislators, Big Tech, researchers, and parents to adopt safeguards that could reduce the potential risks to children and adolescents that are outlined in the 19-page report.
Murphy also described the current situation as a “youth mental health crisis” to which social media has contributed despite it also having positive effects on young people. He conceded that more has to be learned before deeming whether social media is “safe” for adolescents.
Narrative A
While the data is still being collected, there’s no doubt that frequent social media use by kids aged 19 creates distinct changes in their developing brains that can affect them moving forward. Social media is particularly harmful because not only does it alter their perception of reality, but it is also extremely addictive. It’s crucial that everyone come together to create a menu of regulations for protecting kids.
Narrative B
Authorities must be careful not to overreach in protecting kids from the harms of social media, or they’ll miss out on the many benefits, which include support for youth that are part of marginalized groups. There have already been attempts by governments and tech companies to make social media safer, but this shouldn't be used to dismiss it as harmful as a whole .
2024 Olympics: France to Deploy 35K Security Personnel
Citing concerns of novel drone threats, French interior minister Gérald Darmanin announced the deployment of 35K security and military troops to protect the 2024 Olympics opening ceremony that will proceed along the River Seine in the heart of Paris.
The opening ceremony is set to be one of the most extravagant in Olympics history, executed along the 6km (3.5 miles) river. In preparation, the French government, the Olympics committee president, and the Parisian mayor issued an 11-page security protocol on Tuesday.
Darmanin expects more than 600K people to attend the opening event and called on other countries to increase their intelligence sharing in order to combat potential terror threats, including from drones, which — although he said is an unlikely risk — called the “hardest to stop.”
Narrative A
The Olympic Games are an opportunity for people from around the world to unite and experience athletic greatness on display. However, the exorbitant prices set for the 2024 Paris Olympics set an unreasonable barrier that defies the Olympics' commitment to make the games accessible to all. It is quite unfortunate that many people with a love for competition will not be allowed to attend the games because of corporate greed.
Narrative B
While it would be ideal to have tickets to the Olympic Games affordable to all people, there are security costs and market demands that must be considered and prioritized. The fact that millions of tickets have already been sold shows that not only is there plenty of demand for tickets despite the price of some, but that people recognize that there's no price on safety.