Thai Elections: Opposition Dominates Vote
Thai voters on Sunday overwhelmingly backed the opposition parties in nationwide elections, in a blow to the military-aligned establishment that has been ruling Thailand since 2014.
With 99% of the ballots counted on Monday by the Election Commission, Move Forward and Pheu Thai looked set to win 151 and 141 seats, respectively, in the 500-member parliament.
As it became clear that his United Thai Nation party had been defeated, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha — who took over the country in a coup nearly a decade ago — expressed his hopes for peace and development in Thailand, and vowed to respect democracy and elections.
Narrative A
This election only offered the illusion of democracy because the military-aligned establishment had already secured a third of the votes for the next prime minister long before the first ballot was cast. It had also already appointed all nine members of the Constitutional Court, which determines when parties are dissolved. The opposition may have won the vote, but it is unlikely that this reflection of popular support will enable them to appoint the next prime minister.
Narrative B
Though the pro-military Senate could indeed join forces with smaller parties to block a Make Forward-Pheu Thai coalition — and it is true that it has appointed judges that can disqualify candidates and parties — this election has shown such strong popular support for the opposition camp that it is very unlikely that the establishment will scheme such chicaneries.
Cyclone Mocha: 5 Dead, 700 Injured in Myanmar
At least five people have died in Myanmar after Cyclone Mocha ripped through the Myanmar-Bangladesh coasts on Sunday, destroying hundreds of makeshift Rohingya shelters at the world's largest refugee camp in Bangladesh's Cox's Bazar.
The cyclone, which made landfall in Myanmar's Sittwe — capital of Rakhine state — brought wind speeds of over 200kph (125mph), blowing roofs off buildings, uprooting trees, crumpling mobile towers, and cutting off powerlines.
As seawater raced through streets into many low-lying areas near the shore, more than 4K of Sittwe's 300K residents were evacuated to other cities.
Narrative A
Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal are becoming more intense, potent, and destructive because of climate change, which is warming the oceans at an alarming speed and allowing cyclones to retain their energy for longer. Bangladesh and Myanmar are particularly threatened because they're low-lying and are home to some of the world's poorest populations.
Narrative B
There's no real evidence that cyclones are arriving more often due to climate change. While some types of extreme weather can be directly attributed to global warming, more research is needed to conclude that climate change directly affects cyclones' frequency and power. As cyclones are unavoidable natural disasters, policies to boost disaster preparation are crucial to limiting damage once calamity strikes.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there be at least 2.37˚C of global warming by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Turkey: Erdoğan, Kılıçdaroğlu Face Unprecedented Runoff
Turkey's Supreme Election Council on Monday announced that the presidential election is going to a runoff for the first time in history, as incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu failed to pass the threshold of 50% of the vote.
The closely watched presidential race, which has focused on domestic issues such as the economy, governance, civil rights, and the handling of a deadly earthquake in February, will now be decided on May 28.
With 99.87% of the votes counted [and tallies still in flux], Erdoğan was leading with 49.5% of the vote, with Kılıçdaroğlu second at 44.89%, according to the Anadolu Agency. Nearly 87% of the more than 64M people eligible to cast a ballot at home and overseas voted.
Narrative A
The Turkish people, which have had enough of Erdoğan's autocratic rule, can vote to establish the rule of law, rebuild Turkey's economy, and slash inflation and unemployment while introducing greater checks and balances by strengthening parliament. Most importantly, Kılıçdaroğlu promises a less polarized, more peaceful society that can celebrate its cultural diversity rather than vilify it.
Narrative B
Preliminary results have shown that the Turkish voters are the masters of their own destiny despite rogue efforts by the international media to influence the Turkish people to vote against Erdoğan and the ruling People's Alliance by openly calling for them to be ousted. Such attempts to interfere with a nation's sovereignty, which have been recurring over the years, are unacceptable.
Nerd narrative
There's a 70% chance that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Turkey, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China Jails US Citizen For Life on Espionage Charges
On Monday, a 78-year-old US citizen and permanent resident of Hong Kong was sentenced to life in prison on spying charges by a Chinese court in the southeastern city of Suzhou.
Without elaborating on the charges, the Suzhou Intermediate People's Court announced that John Shing-wan Leung was found guilty of espionage and sentenced to life in prison, with his political rights revoked for life.
A spokesman for the US Embassy in Beijing said the embassy was aware of reports of the case and referred to the safety of US citizens abroad as the State Department's primary concern, but declined to comment further for privacy reasons.
Anti-China narrative
The dubious ruling in this case is just the latest example of how repressive China's crackdown on individuals and companies has become. The more powerful Beijing becomes, the more authoritarian its behavior becomes both internally and externally. As a result, China is not only jeopardizing the trust of foreign companies in the world's second-largest economy but also threatening the liberal, democratic US-led order.
Pro-China narrative
No details of the case are yet known, but one thing is certain China is facing increasingly extensive and complex espionage attacks and related activities on its own soil. As the US-led West expands its espionage activities in China, the PRC has the right and duty to protect its national security through enhanced anti-espionage measures. While the Western media feigns outrage, individuals and companies doing normal and legal business in China have nothing to fear.
Vice Media Files For Bankruptcy
On Monday, Vice Media Group (VMG) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the Southern District of New York to facilitate its sale to a group of its lenders.
A consortium of lenders, including Fortress Investment Group and Soros Fund Management, agreed to provide $20M to help fund VMG's operations during bankruptcy.
If VMG doesn't get "higher or better" bids in the course of the sale process, which is expected to conclude in the next two to three months, Vice's creditors could buy it for $225M.
Narrative A
VMG, like other digital media outlets, believed it would generate substantial online ad revenues by attracting millions of young readers through social media networks; unfortunately, a bulk of its profits went to tech giants. Vice's bankruptcy is a symptom of both recent and longer-term downward trends in the economy at large and the media industry specifically. It is a reminder that a business tethered to social media for its growth must develop multiple streams of profit beyond just advertising.
Narrative B
Though Vice and the media industry may paint the company's bankruptcy as a consequence of economic pressures, in fact, this is the result of Vice's incompetent and greedy leadership. Vice's downfall was inevitable, as one of its founders, Shane Smith, was a conman who convinced investors that VMG was the future of news and entertainment. Smith made money hand over fist while employees were mistreated. Vice was doomed to fail.
China Launches 'New-Era' Marriage and Childbearing Initiatives
China’s Family Planning Association, the state body for fertility and population measures, has announced it will pilot a project in more than 20 cities to create a “new era” of family and childbearing culture.
According to the Global Times, the pilot was to be launched in tandem with the celebration of the International Day of Families on Monday. China has experienced falling birth and marriage rates since 2017.
The Global Times revealed details shared at an event held in the city of Guangzhou on Thursday. Measures of the pilot will include encouraging marriage and childbearing at appropriate ages as well as attempting to curb the high prices of marriage and family life.
Anti-China narrative
While India has slowly and steadily grown its population, China is now facing a population crisis having realised its extreme childbirth policies of the past have failed. Now facing an aging population, the country must take lessons from the past and urgently look towards innovative ways to sustain growth and look after an elderly society.
Pro-China narrative
The move is a proactive attempt to reverse the changing perception of younger Chinese generations against the idea of family. Through extending attempts to generate a family-friendly societal atmosphere, the pilot will show China’s youth the possibility to have a healthy equilibrium between family, marriage, career, studies, and general life.
Nerd narrative
There's a 44% chance that the first human clone will be made in China, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Zelenskyy Pushed for Attacks Inside Russia, Leaked Documents Reveal
Despite assurances to Western countries that Ukraine wouldn't use its weapons shipments to attack territory inside Russia, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy reportedly pushed for such attacks in private talks, going as far as proposing that Ukraine attempt to occupy Russian border cities to give it leverage in later negotiations. The revelations were reportedly leaked on the messaging platform Discord.
Zelenskyy's proposals come from US intelligence documents, reported on by the Washington Post as part of its continued coverage of the trove of leaked Pentagon documents that surfaced earlier this year.
According to the documents, Zelenskyy suggested attacks on Russia on multiple occasions. He also suggested blowing up the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline that provides Russian oil to Hungary — what would ostensibly be an attack on a NATO country.
Pro-establishment narrative
Ukraine has no intention of striking Russian territory. It's busy trying to de-occupy Ukrainian land — illegally invaded by the Kremlin — and that is Ukraine's only priority.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite Zelenskyy's pledges not to attack Russia, US intelligence documents show that in private talks, he at least considered the idea on more than one occasion.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will join the European Union before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study: Talking to Babies May Help Shape Brain
A study has found that toddlers who hear more speech in everyday life have more myelin in language-related areas of their brains. The more one speaks to a toddler, the more it helps their brains to develop in early childhood the study claims.
Myelin is a fatty substance that forms around nerves, including those in the brain. Myelin allows electrical impulses to fire more quickly and efficiently.
"Imagine you have a hosepipe with lots of holes in it." Lead researcher Prof. John Spencer explains, “Myelin is like wrapping the hosepipe with duct tape — it insulates neural fibers, bringing more of the ‘signal’ from one brain area to the next.”
Narrative A
These exciting new findings could support a more sophisticated understanding of language processing. Although previous work has shown a similar association in four to six-year-olds, this new research has pushed this association much earlier in development. As the first study of its kind, this offers important foundations for furthering our understanding of childhood development.
Narrative B
The gist of this knowledge has been around for ages. Parents who engage in reading, singing, and talking with their children build an early foundation for language acquisition. A simple daily activity such as making funny faces while playing or pointing out objects in a book can help infants learn new words. Humans are social creatures.
NYC to Open Asylum-Seeker Center for Migrants
New York City Mayor Eric Adams said on Saturday that the city will use the historic Roosevelt Hotel as an arrival center to provide as many as 1k rooms for migrants expected to arrive in the coming weeks following the expiration of Title 42, a pandemic-era public health policy that allowed asylum seekers to be turned away from the southern border.
As hundreds of migrants are arriving in the city each day, the arrival center will be the city’s first and it will double as the ninth Humanitarian Emergency Response and Relief Center.
The city is aggressively arranging housing for the migrants, who are being placed in hotels and other venues on a temporary basis.
Democratic narrative
New York City needs financial support and housing help from the federal and state governments, but for now the Adams administration is doing what it can to compassionately care for the uptick in the number of migrants arriving. Migrants should make their way to the Roosevelt while Adams negotiates with his counterparts in other parts of the state to find safe spaces for those seeking asylum.
Republican narrative
It’s unbelievable how incompetently Democrats have dealt with this migrant crisis. From booting homeless veterans out of shelters to putting migrants in school gymnasiums where they could prove dangerous to children, Adams and the city's leadership seem lost and there’s no telling what they’ll do next.
Google: AI Shouldn't Be Considered An 'Inventor'
Google in a new filing has urged the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) not to consider artificial intelligence (AI) technology an “inventor” under patent law.
Since Feb. 14, the USPTO has been soliciting public comments on issues associated with AI inventorship that may come about as the technology becomes more widely adopted. May 15 marked the deadline to submit a comment.
As questions about AI and its use have exploded in recent months, the USPTO is grappling with the question “If an AI system contributes to an invention at the same level as a human, who would be considered a joint inventor, is the invention patentable under current patent laws?"
Narrative A
Although it may be hard for many people to comprehend, some AI is capable of having independent, subjective thought or sentience. Unlike most AI, systems like DABUS can create without human prompting and are the sole inventor of a concept. Just as a human inventor does not credit his family, teachers, and mentors as co-inventors for his unique inventions, an AI inventor need not credit its human developer or trainer.
Narrative B
The lines may be blurring between where human intelligence ends and where AI’s unique intelligence begins, but at the end of the day humans are the ones who invent and patents should be attributed to those who use AI as an extension of their mind. US law clearly states that only humans can be inventors, and we should not flip the status quo completely on its head. While AI offers tremendous benefits and the ability to create new inventions, human creativity drives innovation.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that AI systems will become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming by October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Florida Scientist Breaks Record for Time Spent Underwater
US Navy veteran Joe Dituri, an associate professor at the University of South Florida self-styled "Dr. Deep Sea," announced on Sunday that he has broken the record for the longest time lived underwater after spending more than 73 days in Jules' Undersea Lodge — 30 feet below the surface of a lagoon in Key Largo, Florida.
He plans to stay at the lodge until June 9, when he reaches 100 days underwater without depressurization and completes the medical and ocean research dubbed "Project Neptune 100," which was organized by the Marine Resources Development Foundation.
The previous record of 73 days, 2 hours, and 34 minutes was set at the same location in 2014 by Bruce Cantrell and Jessica Fain, two Tennessee professors.
Narrative A
The undersea world is another alien environment that humans should be considering exploring as mankind seeks to colonize outer space. These habitats require similar engineering technologies to become sustainably manageable. The sea marks a penultimate Final Frontier.
Narrative B
While research about long underwater living remains limited, known side effects include paleness and reduced vitamin D production from lack of exposure to the sun, and damage to circulation systems. A long underwater excursion could possibly show that there are strong negative impacts on human health.
Nerd narrative
There's a 95% chance that there will be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.