House Republicans Pass Bill to Raise Debt Ceiling
In an effort to spark negotiations with Pres. Biden before the US defaults on its debt, the House Republicans passed a bill by a vote of 217-215 — with all Democrats and four Republicans voting against — to raise the national debt ceiling in exchange for deep cuts in government spending.
The bill would increase Washington's borrowing authority by $1.5T or until March 31 — whichever comes first — pare spending to 2022 levels and then cap growth at 1% a year, repeal some tax incentives for renewable energy, and stiffen work requirements for some antipoverty programs.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the proposal would cut government deficits by $4.8T over 10 years.
Democratic narrative
Republicans are playing a dangerous game of roulette with the economy, and Americans are going to feel pain if they don’t relent. Speaker McCarthy is pushing an extreme wish list that increases costs for hard-working families without actually reducing the deficit. Spending cuts for the future won’t do anything to affect what the US has already spent, and claims to the contrary promote a delusion that will ultimately lead to a default.
Republican narrative
While Republicans are sympathetic to Americans’ financial struggles, Biden continues to hide from the issue and refuses to negotiate. It’s time for the president to lead by coming to the table with McCarthy and for Democrats to acknowledge their reckless spending got the US into this economic mess. Tying the debt ceiling to spending levels is the only way to make the country fiscally responsible.
Cynical narrative
This government paralysis is just one of the many symptoms of a nation plagued by partisan games, with leaders more concerned with tearing each other down than building the country up. As both sides refuse to compromise, the US is creeping closer to the edge of a default-catalyzed economic crisis. Something must be done to end this deadlock.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance the US will default on its sovereign debt before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK House of Commons Approves Controversial Asylum Bill
On Wednesday, the UK's House of Commons voted 289 to 230 in favor of the controversial Illegal Migration Bill, after the British government adopted several amendments from Conservative lawmakers despite criticism from the UN and refugee organizations.
The bill, which prevents asylum seekers crossing the English Channel in small boats from entering the UK, now proceeds to the House of Lords which can only amend or delay the bill.
The vote came despite criticism from leading Conservatives such as Theresa May. The former Prime Minister claimed that the bill will result in modern slavery and human trafficking increases, condemning the government's attempts to tackle the problem as a "slap in the face."
Establishment-critical narrative
This inhumane law violates the UN Refugee Convention, and betrays so-called "Western values." However, the UK is only the most prominent example of how Western countries buy their way out of their humanitarian obligations by turning poor and undemocratic countries like Rwanda into offshore dumping grounds for asylum seekers. This disgraceful practice underlines yet again that the West has lost any right to portray itself as the champion of human rights.
Pro-establishment narrative
The bill is essential simply because the uncontrolled flow of migrants threatens to undermine Britain's national security. Critics of the reform are posing as generous humanitarians without offering a solution to the social woes caused by the influx. Additionally, the number of conflicts in the world is increasing, underscoring the need to revise international refugee agreements. If the UK is to remain a peaceful multi-ethnic nation, reasonable and responsible action must be taken now.
Xi and Zelenskyy Hold First Call Since War Began
The leaders of China and Ukraine, Xi Jinping and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on Wednesday had their first known phone call since Russia invaded Ukraine more than 14 months ago.
Zelenskyy, who for months has expressed an interest in speaking with Xi, said he had an hour-long, "meaningful phone call" with the Chinese leader. He said: "We discussed a full range of topical issues of bilateral relations. Particular attention was paid to the ways of possible cooperation to establish a just and sustainable peace for Ukraine."
In spite of what appeared to be the biggest breakthrough for a possible peace settlement in months, Zelenskyy nonetheless insisted Ukraine would not give up on lost territory. "There can be no peace at the expense of territorial compromises. The territorial integrity of Ukraine must be restored within the 1991 borders," Zelenskyy said.
Pro-China narrative
In contrast to the actions of Western countries — which have added fuel to the fire and dragged out this war by continually supplying Ukraine with weapons — China's desire to remain impartial while seeking to promote a just peace settlement demonstrates good governance. Dialogue and negotiations are the only way to end this tragedy, and China hopes that all parties meaningfully engage in this process to end the war.
Anti-China narrative
Despite China's claims of impartiality, it has only bolstered its ties with Russia throughout this conflict. This ploy of pretending to care about a peace settlement gives China cover while it continues to pursue its relationship with Moscow. This does not reflect serious efforts to bring the war to a close.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pope Allows Women to Vote at Bishops Meeting
Pope Francis has approved historic changes to the norms governing the Synod of Bishops. This will see women given the right to vote at the next scheduled bishops' meeting for the first time in October this year.
The Synod, which is the papal advisory body, announced on Wednesday that the new rules will permit five religious sisters voting rights, although men will still cast the majority of the votes. In previous meetings, women were only allowed to attend as observers.
The world's bishops have been summoned to Rome by Popes for weeks at a time to debate various topics since the 1960s. Pope Francis has also decided to appoint 70 non-bishop voting members to the Synod as well and has asked for half to be women.
Left narrative
The decision reflects the Pope's hope to allow women a greater say in the activities of the Catholic Church. While there is some unease concerning Francis' desire for inclusivity, change is normal in life and in history. Pope Francis has taken the step of doing more than any other predecessor to give women a greater say in the church's decision-making.
Right narrative
Pope Francis' decisions are dangerous, attempting to transform the church into a secular democracy. Power is being snatched away from bishops and the changes are in no way rooted in scripture and tradition. Pope Francis is up to his old tricks again, and there are echoes of liberal socialism in moves like this.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the Roman Catholic Church will permit the ordination of female clergy by January 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Iran: Court Orders US To Pay $313M For 2017 Attacks
On Wednesday, an Iranian court ordered the US government and eight US officials and entities — including former presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, as well as the CIA — to pay $312.95M over the 2017 twin attacks in Tehran.
The 55th branch of the Tehran Court of Justice's ruling — based on complaints by families of the victims — aims to prevent what it called "further US violations of international law" and accuses the US of being complicit in the creation of terrorist groups, including the Islamic State (IS).
According to the court's verdict, the nine American entities must pay $9.95M in material damages to the plaintiffs in addition to $104M in moral and $199M for punitive damages, however, the court didn't specify how the compensation order will be executed.
Pro-establishment narrative
Tehran's false claim that the US is in cahoots with IS is outrageous. No direct evidence supports the court's ruling, which is an obvious attempt to get even following numerous — legitimate — orders passed by US courts over the years that have held Iran accountable for orchestrating terrorist attacks on foreign soil. The US must push back against Iran's subversive activities that attempt to create an anti-American axis across the region and destabilize the global order.
Establishment-critical narrative
While the US may not have directly ordered the 2017 attacks, in an effort to advance its global hegemony, it made conditions in the Middle East ripe for terrorism, as seen in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, where many citizens continue to suffer the consequences of the US' farce War on Terror. The US government must own up to its role in the 2017 attacks and, more importantly, recognize that it's the incubator of terrorism, not the cure.
Nerd narrative
There's a 49% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Chinese Police Question Bain & Co. Staff
On Thursday, US consultancy firm Bain & Company confirmed that Chinese police visited its office in Shanghai, which has been open in the city's central business district since 2004, and questioned staff.
The Boston-based company declined to comment beyond saying it was cooperating with authorities, though the Financial Times has reported that police took away computers and phones.
This surprise visit, which reportedly occurred two weeks ago, comes after Chinese authorities raided the Beijing office of US due diligence firm Mintz Group and detained five local staff. China has also suspended Deloitte's operations in Beijing for three months and levied a fine against the Big Four accounting firm.
Anti-China narrative
As Beijing grows increasingly aggressive toward the US and its regional allies like Taiwan, it's important for American businesses to follow the government's lead in diversifying away from China and into safe markets. China is trying to use industry, particularly technology and chip manufacturing, to rival Western economies and militaries, which is why a joint public-private operation to deter Chinese expansion is more important than ever.
Pro-China narrative
Solely out of its superficial fear of losing its role as the only global superpower, the US has worked to antagonize China and persuade its Western allies to cut their economic ties as well. Since Washington has chosen to threaten the economic and national security of China, it's only right for Beijing to focus on building the strongest defense it can. The government has a duty to ensure US businesses and its military are not attempting to injure the interests of the Chinese people.
Nerd narrative
There is a 20% chance that there will be a US-China war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study: Diabetes Drug Leads to Significant Weight Loss
On Thursday, Eli Lilly, makers of Tirzepatide — approved to treat Type 2 diabetes under the brand name "Mounjaro" — announced the results of their study, claiming the injectable drug helped obese people with diabetes lose weight and reduce their blood sugar.
The trial evaluated more than 900 adults with obesity and Type 2 diabetes over a 72-week period. Patients on a 15mg dose of Mounjaro lost an average of 15.7% of their body weight, while those on a 10mg dose achieved an average weight reduction of 13.4%.
About 86% of patients in the trial who took a 15mg dose lost at least 5% of their body weight, compared with 30.5% of placebo patients. Nearly 82% of people taking the 10mg dose achieved at least 5% weight loss.
Narrative A
Like high blood pressure, obesity should be viewed as a chronic disease that can be managed with medication. Research has shown that merely relying on diet, exercise, and willpower does not reduce body weight substantially. Since it targets the digestive and chemical pathways that underlie obesity, Mounjaro could set a new bar for weight loss and help nearly 42% of all adults who qualify as obese in the US.
Narrative B
Drugmakers are trying to capitalize on increased consumer demand for weight loss miracles. As it is designed to activate hormones that regulate blood sugar, delay digestion, and suppress appetite, Mounjaro may further perpetuate a dangerous diet culture that idealizes weight loss and slim bodies if the FDA approves it for weight management. People should stay clear of drugs that override human metabolism.
Narrative C
Obesity isn't just a cosmetic concern; it is a complicated issue that needs more than medications. To reverse the obesity epidemic, the federal government must be willing to take concrete action because the alternative is to normalize it as an irreparable health issue, allowing Big Pharma to reap billions off the obesity gold rush.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 71.2% of Americans will be obese or overweight in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Tucker Carlson Breaks Silence After Fox Departure
Two days after surprisingly parting ways with US cable network Fox News, Tucker Carlson broke his silence, posting a video on Twitter that instantly topped Fox’s primetime show by generating 1.8M views in less than an hour and 57.8M as of Thursday afternoon.
Carlson didn’t mention Fox or his departure, but he used his two-minute, 16-second video to rail against the mainstream media, both major political parties, and the overall state of American discourse.
He said one of the things he noticed "when you step away from the noise for a few days" is how nice some people are and how hilarious some are, adding that most debates on television are "unbelievably stupid" and will be forgotten in five years.
Right narrative
Tucker Carlson delivered two powerful messages to Fox News and the American political establishment with his short and sweet Twitter video. The first involved the actual substance of his message, which acknowledges the depressing and absurd state of American politics. The other message was to Fox News, as Tucker’s post received more views in one hour than the new Fox primetime show. Tucker’s reach has only been amplified, and he will continue to speak truth to power– with or without Fox News.
Left narrative
Tucker Carlson released a very strange video on Twitter after his embarrassing exit from Fox News. The right-wing host’s comments may seem vague and vapid at first glance, but there is a sinister meaning behind them. Fox News’ demographic is dominated by seniors, making them unlikely to follow Carlson to less mainstream digital outlets. Carlson knows this and used his brief video to court extremists with far-right dog whistles as he becomes more unhinged.
Uyghur Refugee Dies After 9 Years of Thai Detention
Following the reported death of a second asylum seeker from China’s Muslim Uyghur minority in Thai custody within two months, human rights groups urged Thailand on Thursday to improve conditions in its immigration detention facilities.
Last Friday, 40-year-old Mattohti Mattursun died of suspected liver failure shortly after being taken to a hospital in Bangkok weeks after falling ill, prompting Human Rights Watch to call for an end to the Thai government's “inhumane and counterproductive” policy of indefinitely detaining people accused of violating immigration law.
Also known as Muhammad Tursun, he was one of the 350 Uyghurs, including children, who were detained by Thai authorities in March 2014 as they were traveling to Malaysia after fleeing China.
Anti-China narrative
Uyghurs, who are already oppressed in China, continue to face oppression in neighboring countries as they flee the PRC. Refugees are being subjected to inhumane conditions in Thai detention facilities. Thailand has even sent Uygher refugees back to China for them never to be heard from again. The unjust refugee and migration system must be reformed, and Beijing's policies must be questioned.
Pro-China narrative
Uyghurs leaving China has nothing to do with the fabricated "oppression" they face in China. All the claims about forced labor and the concern for human rights were invented by figures rabidly opposed to China in the US. Uyghurs live good lives in China, and any that exit the PRC make that choice due to other considerations.
Narrative C
Thailand's future elections may be a good opportunity for refugee advocates to advance their political objectives. Thailand is facing a migration crisis from multiple countries, with refugees pouring in from China and Myanmar and migrant workers streaming in from Cambodia and Laos. The next Thai government will hopefully prioritize human rights for migrants. Besides contributions to the economy, migrants should have a path to naturalization, which are all possible policies in the future.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance that the UN will open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Longtime Talk Show Host Jerry Springer Dead at 79
Jerry Springer, the former politician-turned-host of the controversial "The Jerry Springer Show," died on Thursday in suburban Chicago at the age of 79. His death was confirmed by Jene Galvin, a family friend and executive producer of Springer’s podcast.
Springer was born in London in 1944 to parents Richard and Margot, German Jews who fled to England to escape the Holocaust. At just a few years old, the family moved to Queens, New York. He studied political science at Tulane University and later received a law degree from Northwestern University.
He was elected to the Cincinnati city council in 1971 but resigned three years later after confessing to soliciting a prostitute. Running as a liberal, he was re-elected in 1977, after which the council picked him to be the city's mayor for one year.
Narrative A
Through his wit and intellect, Jerry Springer was able to lead an extraordinary career in politics and show business. He opened a new door into what entertainment could be, and his vision was vindicated by years of successful ratings. He also understood the importance of treating people with respect and separating his political views from what he aired on TV. His closing remarks to each episode, to "take care of yourselves and each other," exemplified his status as a man and how he lived his life.
Narrative B
Even Springer himself has apologized for participating in the degeneracy of his show. In his own words, he "ruined the culture." While he may have been thrown into the sensationalized culture of Hollywood without knowing what he was getting into, "The Jerry Springer Show" launched a new era of TV lawlessness and decadence before millions of viewers.