India: Fugitive Sikh Separatist Arrested, Ending Manhunt
On Sunday, Amritpal Singh, a Sikh separatist preacher who has been on the run since March 18, was arrested in the northern Indian state of Punjab.
While Singh claimed he had courted arrest, police said he surrendered after being surrounded in Rode village in the state's Moga district and was subsequently taken to Dibrugarh Central Jail in the northeastern state of Assam, where several of his aides are already being held.
Singh’s arrest comes three days after his wife Kirandeep Kaur — who was under surveillance by Punjab Police — was detained at Amritsar airport while she was trying to board a flight to London.
Narrative A
Amritpal Singh is backed by Pakistan-based Islamist groups and Kashmir-centric terrorist groups. It’s no secret that the Khalistan agenda has primarily been kept alive from foreign soil by Sikh hardliners attempting to revive insurgency in Punjab — India’s only Sikh-majority state — with a massive financial push. The Indian government must come down heavily on all anti-national elements.
Narrative B
Traditional political parties in Punjab have failed to solve long-standing socio-economic crises such as unemployment and drug addiction. The erosion of faith within political parties, and not Amritpal Singh, has revived the demand for a larger religious and social transformation in Punjab. However, Amritpal’s radical posturing and the recent increase in activities of pro-Khalistani forces reflect a dangerous trend that may once again destabilize the state and the country.
Narrative C
Sikhs have faced increasing discrimination in India, especially with the growth of Hindu nationalism. The current treatment of Sikhs in Punjab is nearly identical to that which preceded the 1984 genocide — no wonder the demand for Khalistan has spread over the Sikh diaspora. The longer governments worldwide continue to let India treat a minority community oppressively, the more fervent Sikh protests are likely to become.
Nerd narrative
There's a 52% chance that there will be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Peru: Ex-President Toledo Extradited From US
On Sunday, Peruvian authorities imprisoned former Pres. Alejandro Toledo hours after he landed in the capital Lima. He was in the custody of Interpol officers following extradition from the US.
The 77-year-old, who was president between 2001 and 2006, has been ordered to serve a pre-trial detention of 18 months inside a police base on the outskirts of Lima, where former presidents Alberto Fujimori and Pedro Castillo are also being held.
Toledo is accused of taking around $35M in bribes from Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht in exchange for awarding a lucrative contract to build a highway linking Peru and Brazil during his term.
Narrative A
Peru has been trying to rebuild its democracy over the last two decades but still struggles to elect a government that can operate without corruption. The struggle against political corruption requires a strong judiciary, stable party structures, strict enforcement of anti-corruption strategies, and control over illegal and foreign financing of presidential elections — all currently lacking in Peru.
Narrative B
The fact that Peru has already had seven presidents since 2016 speaks volumes about the country's political situation. However, there's a reason for optimism for Peruvian democracy if structural reforms are implemented to put the country on a sound institutional footing. Peru holds its leaders accountable for crimes committed against its democratic institutions.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) will be at least 20.2K in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China Envoy Under Fire After Remarks on Ex-Soviet States
China's ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, came under fire this weekend after questioning the sovereignty of former Soviet states in an interview on French television.
When asked if he considered Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, a part of Ukraine, Lu said that, "under international law," former Soviet Union countries like Crimea lack "effective status ... because there’s no international accord to concretise their status as a sovereign country." He then said the issue of Crimea was complex and depended on one's position, mentioning that, "Crimea was originally part of Russia."
Representatives of Ukraine and France condemned the remarks and called on Beijing to clarify whether they represented the government's official position. Mao Ning, Spokeswoman for China's foreign ministry, said on Monday that China had consistently respected the sovereign independence and territorial integrity of all countries.
Pro-China narrative
China was one of the first countries to establish diplomatic relations with former Soviet countries. Its position has been clear and consistent since the start of these relations; China respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries and upholds the principles of the UN charter. China's position on Ukraine has been objective and fair, and it is willing to work with the international community to play a role in creating a solution to the current crisis.
Anti-China narrative
The comments from Lu Shaye are unacceptable and threaten the security of Europe. These words go beyond the norms of diplomatic discourse and should be vehemently repudiated. France must take immediate action to declare Lu a persona non grata and send him back to Beijing.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that China will get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Credit Suisse Says it Lost $68B in Assets Last Quarter
Credit Suisse said Monday it lost 61B Swiss francs (US$68B) in assets during the first quarter of this year, with customer deposits also declining by 67B Swiss francs during the same period.
The bank's wealth management division saw its assets under management drop to 502.5B Swiss francs, down from 707B Swiss francs reported for the same time a year prior. The collapses of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank also played a role as investors began making panic withdrawals.
This could be Credit Suisse's last report as rival UBS is expected to buy out the 167-year-old bank for 3B Swiss francs in stock and assume up to 5B Swiss francs in losses.
Narrative A
As shown by its rapid-fire asset sales, Credit Suisse is finally dying out and is in need of a stronger business to take over. While UBS can take on this role, the next few years of integrating the two banks need to be taken with caution. UBS needs to rid the company of Credit Suisse's outdated risky business tactics and prioritize wise banking management.
Narrative B
With a bank such as Credit Suisse to be bailed out in a manner horribly reminiscent of 2008, it's time for a radical rethinking of central bank policy. Such crises are the product of the central banks' policies and failure to supervise. Bankers cannot continue to attempt to serve both society and themselves — they must make the right decision or these poorly regulated markets are at risk of falling off a cliff.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the next great financial crisis in the US will occur by February 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Global Military Spending Reaches All-Time High
Military spending worldwide reached an all-time high of $2.24T last year, a leading defense think tank said in a new report issued Monday.
In its annual report on global military expenditure, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said military spending has risen for the eighth consecutive year and jumped by 3.7% in real terms since the previous year.
"The continuous rise in global military expenditure in recent years is a sign that we are living in an increasingly insecure world," Nan Tian, a senior researcher at SIPRI said. "States are bolstering military strength in response to a deteriorating security environment, which they do not foresee improving in the near future."
Pro-establishment narrative
This rise in global military spending has been largely fuelled by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Unsurprisingly that neighboring countries such as Finland, Lithuania, and Poland have had to ramp up spending to keep the Russian threat at bay.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US — by far the world's biggest military spender — needs to rethink this. Every year, the figure rises without anyone stopping to ask if such an increase is really necessary. US spending on the military will likely exceed $1T in the coming decade. Congress needs to re-evaluate.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 2.19% of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Australia Unveils Biggest Defense Overhaul Since WWII
On Monday, Australian PM Anthony Albanese unveiled the most significant shakeup of the country's defense spending since World War II — designed to increase the preparedness of the Australian Defense Force (ADF) amid fears about China's intentions in the Indo-Pacific.
Defense Minister Richard Marles detailed that the ADF would be recast around six priority areas, including developing a nuclear-powered submarine capability, providing long-range strike capability, and enabling the ADF to operate from the country's northern bases.
This comes as relations between Australia and China have been strained in recent years and as tensions have mounted in East Asia, particularly over Taiwan. Meanwhile, China is forging ahead with the modernization of its armed forces.
Anti-China narrative
To offset the growing danger from China's significant military expansion and coercive behavior in Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Pacific, Australia needed to supercharge its defense and extend its combat reach. By redefining the army's role and giving more prominence to naval defenses, Canberra has future-proofed the country from incursions in its northwest shelf, exclusive economic zone, and disruptions to sea lines of communication.
Pro-China narrative
Given that Australia has long been acquiescent to the US, falling short of complaining even when its interests are threatened by Washington, it's no surprise that this new defense review adopts the anti-PRC paranoia promoted by the US. Instead of bowing to hegemonic political pressure from America, Canberra should be focusing on restoring good relations with Beijing.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Australia will commission its first nuclear-powered submarine by March 2037, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Tucker Carlson Out at Fox News
Fox News said Monday that talk show host Tucker Carlson and the network have "agreed to part ways," adding that last Friday was the last showing of Carlson's show and thanked "him for his service to the network."
Carlson, who worked for the network for over 10 years, signed off his show on Friday stating he would return Monday. Fox's statement said that Carlson would not return on Monday, meaning he was unable to bid his viewers farewell.
The host's departure was announced just days after the network settled its defamation case with Dominion Voting Systems' for $787.5M. Fox News has not commented on whether the departure and settlement are linked.
Left narrative
It's about time that Fox News took accountability for and applied some consequences to Tucker Carlson's toxic and blatant spread of lies and defamation that did nothing short of undermining American democracy. Carlson's removal is a step towards restoring democracy and the civility of the American people.
Right narrative
The lengths to which Democrats and the "woke" crowd will celebrate Carlson's departure show that they believed he was a threat to the establishment's agenda. His departure also demonstrates that while Fox News claims to expose Democrats and the government, it has defected and declared war on Trump and his supporters.
Narrative C
The simultaneous departures of Carlson from Fox and Lemon CNN mark a seismic shift in the media landscape. Ironically, this upheaval comes just days before the 2023 White House Correspondents Dinner. It's clear that the cable news industry is in the midst of a broadcast bloodbath and the fall-out will shed light on how the cable news market is rapidly evolving.
Report: Julie Chavez Rodriguez to be Biden 2024 Campaign Manager
US Pres. Joe Biden's team has reportedly picked Julie Chavez Rodriguez, director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs and 2020 deputy campaign manager, to manage the president's 2024 re-election campaign.
While the decision was reportedly confirmed by two anonymous sources, the appointment hasn't been finalized and the president hasn't officially declared his run. Rodriguez also worked in the Obama White House and has served in the Biden admin. since June 2022.
She is also the granddaughter of labor rights activists Cesar Chávez and Helen Fabela Chávez.
Left narrative
Biden's campaign is moving quickly to finalize staffing for a robust 2024 run. Biden's age, as his advisers continue to project, merely shows his experience. Rodriguez, poised to oversee the campaign, has seen her star rise in the White House and has become part of the small circle of the president's most-trusted advisers.
Right narrative
As Biden prepares to re-run for election, there isn't a single poll that suggests he's in a good position. Inflation, border issues, increases in crime, and the decrease in the value of education have made it clear that Biden simply doesn't deserve a second term. The reality of approval ratings lower than Trump — the man Biden himself called the worst president in history — highlights the poor current state of the Biden administration.
Nerd narrative
There is a 44% chance that Joe Biden will be elected as US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Kenya: Death Toll Passes 70 as Police Investigate Starvation Cult
Kenyan police on Monday recovered 73 bodies, mostly from mass graves in an eastern Kenya forest, as the death toll of alleged followers of a Christian cult — who believed they would go to heaven if they starved themselves — continues to rise.
The final count could be even higher as the Red Cross has stated that 112 members of the Good News International Church have been reported missing. Police have found 29 survivors, some of them seemingly unwilling to be rescued.
This comes as an 800-acre woodland area in the Shakahola forest near the coastal town of Malindi has been combed since last week after receiving warnings from local people and rights activists about the cult's activities.
Narrative A
Kenyan authorities turned a blind eye to the warning signs surrounding Paul Mackenzie's death cult, which led to the deaths of so many people. Many bodies continue to be discovered daily, and rights groups alerted police to his radical teachings for years to no avail. We must continue to ask questions about how much authorities knew about this deadly cult before they started to investigate.
Narrative B
Paul Mackenzie is a terrorist, and Kenyan authorities are doing all they can to make sure his death cult is stopped and justice is served. Police are working together to rescue as many victims as possible and are fully committed to helping those deceived by this horrific group.
Bed Bath & Beyond Files for Bankruptcy
Home goods retail giant Bed Bath & Beyond filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Sunday, ending a tumultuous period that saw the company cut jobs and close stores to stay afloat.
The company’s 360 locations, 120 buybuy BABY stores, and associated websites will remain open for now, as it has secured a $240M loan to help fund its operations during bankruptcy.
The New Jersey-based retailer said it will stop accepting coupons on April 26, which is when it will start closing its stores and offer products at "deep discounts." However, customers can return or exchange items until late May.
Narrative A
Bed Bath & Beyond’s downfall is as sad as it was predictable. Unfortunately, the retail market has completely changed over the past few decades, and it's extremely difficult for an unwieldy brick-and-mortar store to compete in today’s world. There may have been decisions the company could have made to ensure its viability, but those moves needed to be made many years ago. The nostalgic "home goods store" has been on an inevitable path to insolvency over the past several years.
Narrative B
Bed Bath & Beyond’s demise is no one’s fault but its own. Some may lament the store’s death as the inevitable 21st-century tragedy of a large retailer, but that's not the case. The company made the wrong move at every turn and had countless opportunities, as recently as last year, to save itself. No one is saying the retail market is booming, but a titan of the industry like Bed Bath & Beyond could’ve weathered the storm with better management.