Putin Meets with Brazil's Bolsonaro
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Brazilian leader Jair Bolsanaro for in-person talks in Moscow this week.
The summit was staged as Russian soldiers remained positioned at the Ukraine border, and as the leaders of Western nations and Brazilians alike urged Bolsanaro to cancel.
The intimate meeting, which saw the two leaders sitting knee-to-knee, was in stark contrast to recent talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who each sat at the opposite end of a long table from Putin.
Anti-Russia narrative
This is precisely the kind of personalistic politics that authoritarian leaders relish. Bolsanaro embraced Trump for the same reasons. Now that the world's democracies have closed ranks against Putin, he's reached out and found a pliable ally in Bolsanaro, who in turn is looking to legitimize himself on the world stage.
Pro-Russia narrative
Bolsanaro's visit to Europe will allow the Brazilian leader to interface with strong leaders who share similar values, including Putin, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and Polish President Andrzej Duda. These are values shared by the former US President Trump as well, and which are repudiated by radical leftists combined with Big Tech and international media conglomerates.
US Midterms: Biden Approval's Rating Remains Low
As midterm elections loom just weeks away, on Tuesday, a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll showed that Pres. Biden's approval rating stayed close to the lowest level of his presidency this week at 40%, unchanged from last week.
Biden’s sagging approval ratings, which drifted as low as 36% in May and June, are projected to weigh on the Democratic Party's chances in November.
Biden's term has been marked by the economic scars of the COVID pandemic, including soaring inflation. The poll demonstrated that a third of potential US voters, including one out of five Democrats and two out of five GOP voters, viewed the economy as the most pressing issue.
Democratic narrative
While the president has seen his approval ratings plummet, the outlook for other Democrats isn't nearly as bad – and has even been looking up ahead of the midterms. SCOTUS' overturning of Roe v. Wade, and extremist Trump-like candidates running for the GOP have given Democratic voters a reason to get out and vote.
Republican narrative
Democrats are running against history, as the party in power almost always loses ground in Congress in midterm elections. With Biden's approval ratings remaining low, if the Republicans focus on rampant inflation, crime, and the economy, the GOP can certainly win the House and possibly the Senate, too.
Nerd narrative
There's a 41% chance that the Republican party will control both the House and the Senate after the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Vows ‘Consequences’ for Saudi Arabia Over Oil Cuts
Pres. Biden on Tuesday warned of "consequences" for US -Saudi relations after OPEC+ announced last week that it would cut its oil production target by up to 2M barrels per day, despite Washington's objections.
While his options and timetable haven't been detailed, the White House stated that the president is willing to work with Congress to reassess the US relationship with Saudi Arabia. A day earlier, some Democrats in Congress urged any cooperation with the kingdom to be suspended.
In response, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan praised ties with the US and claimed that the decision to cut oil production was "purely economic and taken unanimously by the group member states."
Establishment-critical narrative
The OPEC+ announcement is not only a slap in Biden's face, but underscores the tectonic geopolitical shifts in West Asia and Russia's growing influence. Instead of reflecting on its own failures, Washington is once again resorting to threats, which will only spur the continued evolution of a multipolar world order.
Pro-establishment narrative
The OPEC+ decision poses numerous risks for the free world. Washington must not give in to the pressure and should continue its plan for a price cap on Russian oil. The Biden administration should avoid any short-sighted response in the run-up to the midterm elections. As with the 1973 oil embargo, this production cut could ultimately prove to be a dangerous boon for the oil cartel.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the price of oil will be at least $91.8 per barrel by December 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community
Day 231 Roundup: Russia Detains Eight People in Connection with Crimean Bridge Blast; Another Oil Pipeline Leak Reported
Russia's intelligence and security service, the FSB, says it has detained eight people in connection with the blast that collapsed parts of the Crimean Bridge on Oct. 8. The agency said five Russian nationals were arrested, in addition to two Ukrainians and an Armenian. The service also alleged the attack was masterminded by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.
The FSB noted that explosives were disguised in polyethylene wraps and loaded onto a truck in 22 pallets, collectively weighing over 22 tons. It claimed the truck was shipped to Bulgaria from the port of Odesa in Ukraine, passing through Armenia, Georgia, and across the border to Russia before making its way to the Crimean Bridge. A Ukrainian interior ministry spokesman dismissed the investigation as "nonsense."
Meanwhile, another leak in a pipeline carrying Russian gas to Germany was reported on Wednesday. Poland's top official in charge of energy infrastructure, Mateusz Berger, has alleged there is no reason to believe that sabotage played a role in the Druzhba pipeline leak, which was reported in Polish territory.
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Ukraine will regain control of Kherson by Dec. 23, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Russia Labels Meta 'Extremist and Terrorist' Organization
Russia’s financial monitoring agency, Rosfinmonitoring, has reportedly added Instagram and Facebook's parent company, Meta Platforms Inc, to its "terrorists and extremists" list.
This comes after Moscow banned Facebook and Instagram in March for alleged "extremist activities" following accusations by Russian authorities that the company tolerated "Russophobia" amid the Ukraine war.
Moscow also accused Facebook of restricting users' access to government-backed news outlets such as Sputnik and Russia Today. The latest decision means that all services provided by Meta will be fully unavailable in Russia.
Pro-Russia narrative
Not only has Meta routinely censored narratives that oppose the West's stance, but the social media platform — which has been a loud advocate against hate speech — has also dangerously promoted "Russophobia." Meta has become a servant to the White House, and there's no room for its double standards in Russia.
Anti-Russia narrative
As Putin continues the war on Ukraine, free speech and the press environment in Russia have been almost entirely repressed. In an ironic, albeit unsurprising, turn of events, Moscow has now banned Meta after accusing the company of launching its own censorship agenda. By monitoring and suppressing social media, Russia will only continue its harsh crackdown on bringing media fully under state control.
Cynical narrative
Russia and the West are both pushing for unprecedented censorship in an attempt to win the ideas war. This is a dangerous violation of freedom of expression, a fundamental right of not only the speaker but also the audience. As history has shown time and again, nothing good comes of restricting speech, which only harms the society it purports to protect.
Nerd narrative
There's a 6% chance that YouTube will be blocked in Russia in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
NATO Chief: Long-Planned Nuclear Exercises To Go Ahead
Despite rising tensions over the war in Ukraine, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced on Tuesday that the alliance would push ahead with long-planned nuclear exercises next week.
Stoltenberg said it would send the wrong signal to Moscow to cancel the annual nuclear deterrent exercises, adding, “NATO’s firm, predictable behavior, our military strength, is the best way to prevent escalation.”
The exercises, dubbed "Steadfast Noon," typically run for about a week, and this year's operation was reportedly planned before the Ukraine war began in February. The decision to proceed with the drills comes despite warnings from Russian Pres. Putin that he would use nuclear weapons to defend his territory.
Pro-establishment narrative
Putin is failing in Ukraine, and it’s NATO’s responsibility to remain unified and flex its muscles — whether by holding nuclear exercises, ramping up economic sanctions, or increasing its defense of the Baltic Sea. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a brazen violation of international law, and Kyiv deserves whatever protection NATO can provide.
Establishment-critical narrative
By encouraging Ukraine to go on the offensive, NATO and the US are escalating the war. Going through with these nuclear exercises only takes that escalation one step further. If the West really wants this war to end, it should be working toward a ceasefire or negotiated settlement. Its deliberate decision not to take this route, however, suggests its true aims are to weaken Russia and hurt its geostrategic interests, not save Ukraine.
Nerd narrative
There's a 21% chance of a "World War Three" before 2050, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.
SCOTUS Hears Pork Industry Challenge to Calif. Law
On Tuesday, SCOTUS heard arguments in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross, a case where pork producers are challenging a Calif. law that requires pork sellers to raise pigs in pens where they can roam freely.
California voters approved the law in 2018 with nearly 63% of the vote (a margin of more than 3M votes), and it was due to take effect this year. Voters were told the law would most likely increase the price of pork while providing more humane living conditions for pigs.
Pork producers say complying with the law will cost the industry between $290-$350M - costs they would have to pass onto consumers in California and nationwide.
Left narrative
Inhumane animal confinement for pigs and other livestock is immoral, and it threatens the health and safety of consumers by compromising the immune systems of the animals we’re eating. The pork industry’s suit challenges the power of the people - Californians who voted the law into effect - in addition to taking animal rights backward.
Right narrative
California lawmakers often presume they know what's best for everyone. However, this law disproportionately and unfairly affects the rest of America. With more than 99% of the pork consumed in California coming from out of state, farmers in 49 other states shouldn't have to bear the brunt of the financial burden of this law.
Nerd narrative
There's a 55% chance that the Supreme Court will overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council vs Ross by the end of 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Mortgage Rates Rise to Highest Level Since 2006
US mortgage interest rates have, on average, increased to their highest level in 16 years, according to data by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released on Wednesday, with rates more than doubling since January 2022 as the Federal Reserve increases interest rates amid rising inflation.
30-year mortgage rates are now over 7%, up from around 3% 10 months ago, according to Mortgage News Daily.
Mortgage applications to purchase homes have dropped 39% since last year, with a 2% drop occurring in the week ending Oct. 7.
Narrative A
Increasing rates is a painful but necessary measure to cool the housing market and ensure that prices align with rents and other market fundamentals. There was a significant imbalance between supply and demand, and housing prices were going up unsustainably fast, which is why the Fed has been right to step in until they're brought down to normal.
Narrative B
Contrary to the hopes of the Fed, high mortgage rates may become the new normal that home buyers and homeowners will have to adapt to and accept over time. It’s unlikely that a housing recession will destabilize the economy — as it did in 2008 — but people will have to pay more out of their income.
Meta Debuts Quest Pro VR
On Tuesday, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg unveiled his company's new $1,499 Oculus Quest Pro virtual reality (VR) headset during the live-streamed Connect 2022 conference.
Unlike its Quest 2 predecessor, the Quest Pro headset — available starting Oct. 25 — has outward-facing cameras that capture a 3D live stream of the surrounding physical world, creating a mixed reality for the wearer.
The announcement comes as Meta's stock — down 60% so far in 2022 — continues to suffer amid ongoing competition from TikTok in the advertising market and recent privacy updates from Apple that restricts Meta's ability to target iPhone users.
Establishment-critical narrative
Just because Zuckerberg changed Facebook's name to Meta and poured billions of dollars into his VR dreams doesn't mean it's necessarily a good thing. Besides the obvious issues of the new Quest VR being an overpriced and unimpressive gadget, the bigger concern is one of privacy Is drawing on a mediocre virtual whiteboard really worth allowing Meta to collect data on the most minute details of your face?
Pro-establishment narrative
With the business world already shifting to at least a partial work-from-home model, we should embrace the possibilities created by Meta's Quest VR in the workplace. With graphics and eye-scanning technology quickly improving, we'll soon be able to transport ourselves into a personable, realistic office setting with our peers without the hassle of a commute. This is an exciting device.
Nerd narrative
There's a 23% chance that Meta will report 1B active users by the end of 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: TikTok Profiting from Exploitive Live Streams
A BBC investigation released Tuesday alleges that the social media platform TikTok has been profiting from live streams in which Syrian refugees urgently beg for cash gifts from viewers.
The children reportedly stream for hours pleading for digital gifts with cash value - sometimes making up to $1K per hour. The investigation found that TikTok is allegedly taking up to 70% of the proceeds.
The families in need reportedly received a fifth of the original donation, after TikTok, live-streaming guilds known as "agencies," and middlemen all took respective portions of the total.
Pro-establishment narrative
Solicitation live streams like these are against TikTok's rules for good reason. Many of them, whether they're real or not, are exploiting children who don't benefit from their videos. Users should be cautious; there are exploitive grifters online no matter how hard social media platforms work to curb them.
Establishment-critical narrative
Though TikTok claims to be cracking down on these live streams and saying they're against the company's terms and conditions, many videos are shamefully still online. If TikTok was truly against these exploitive stunts, it would have simply shut them down earlier rather than take a cut for itself.