Iran: Protests Continue Despite Legal Warning
On Sunday, Iranian protesters took to the streets for the 10th night in a row over the death of Mahsa Amini, despite Pres. Ebrahim Raisi and judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei urging "decisive action without leniency" against "instigators of the riots."
This comes on the same day that Iran's Foreign Ministry announced it had summoned Britain's ambassador to Iran over what it deemed a "hostile atmosphere" promoted by London-based Persian language news outlets.
Meanwhile, Iran's Minister of Communications has confirmed restrictions on internet access, claiming the measure is necessary to prevent riot organization through social media, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly asked people to identify protesters.
Pro-establishment narrative
Iran's system has long been rotten, and Amini's death has pushed Iran's youth to its limits by showing how the regime treats its own citizens as well as its disregard for the rule of law. While Raisi has been unable to tackle the economic crisis and youth unemployment, he has amplified repression against women "incorrectly" covering their hair. Iranians cannot blindly comply with these orders any longer.
Establishment-critical narrative
The riots have nothing to do with the death of Amin. Enemies of Iran are exploiting the tragic event for the sole purpose of creating chaos in the country as the government remains firm in its opposition to Western hegemony and Israel's Zionist regime. Claims that she was beaten before her death are baseless and contrary to forensic evidence.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by December 2047, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UN: All Warring Sides Committing Atrocities In Ethiopia
The UN Commission of Human Rights Experts for Ethiopia reportedly said on Monday that it had found evidence of widespread atrocities committed by all sides in Ethiopia since fighting broke out in the northern Tigray region in November 2020.
UN investigators also claimed that there's sufficient evidence to believe that the Ethiopian government has committed "war crimes and crimes against humanity," and warned of further atrocities amid a recent resurgence of hostilities.
Commission chair Kaari Betty Murungi also blamed the federal government for blocking access to food, medical care, and humanitarian aid and accused Addis Ababa of using "starvation as a method of warfare." She also called on Tigrayan forces to ensure the unhindered work of humanitarian organizations.
Establishment-critical narrative
The human suffering in northern Ethiopia isn't primarily the fault of the democratically-elected Ethiopian government. Addis Ababa has repeatedly offered peace talks and declared a humanitarian ceasefire, yet these efforts have been consistently undermined by the TPLF. By unilaterally taking sides with the TPLF, the West is complicit in this destabilizing conflict and the suffering of Ethiopians.
Pro-establishment narrative
While the Ethiopian government presents itself as the victim of a larger conspiracy, Addis Ababa is responsible for the latest resumption of fighting and widespread suffering. Even the supposed "humanitarian ceasefire" served Addis Ababa only by giving the army some breathing room. Abiy Ahmed's government isn't aligned with the international community and has no real interest in peace.
Cynical narrative
Both sides are to blame here, as civilians suffer the most in this conflict. Human rights abuses have been committed by both the central Ethiopian government and Tigrayan rebels, including war crimes and crimes against humanity. Even though the number of casualties in Ethiopia's war dwarfs those of other conflicts, the media has consistently ignored the suffering of the Ethiopian people.
Day 209 Roundup: Putin Backs Referendums as Ukraine Reports Gains
Russia on Tuesday backed what appeared to be choreographed requests for referendums in regions of Ukraine controlled by its soldiers, paving the way for the formal annexation of up to 15% of Ukrainian territory. The regions include the self-proclaimed Donetsk (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republics (LPR), as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The move has been met with international outcry.
This comes as Ukraine reported further gains in the northeastern Kharkiv region on Monday, with its forces claiming to have crossed the Oskil River and now control its eastern bank. Ukrainian forces also claimed to have recaptured the village of Bilohorivka in Luhansk – a small yet symbolic gain that shows Russia no longer controls the entire region. Ukraine also said it retook control of the "ghost village" Bohorodychne in the Donetsk region on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a Ukrainian attack on the city of Donetsk killed at least 13 civilians, separatist officials from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) said on Monday. Local officials reported an additional five civilians killed and 16 injured in Ukrainian attacks elsewhere in the Donetsk region.
Pro-establishment narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 30% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Musk: Starlink to Seek Exemption from Iran Sanctions
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said via Twitter on Monday that his company will seek an exemption from sanctions on Iran to provide the firm's Starlink satellite broadband service to the country.
His Tweet was in response to Iranian-born science journalist Erfan Kasraie, who said that bringing the service to Iran could be a "real game changer for the future" of the country.
Musk's comment comes as protests have erupted in Iran's Kurdistan region regarding the death of a Kurdish-Iranian woman in police custody last week, which led to a telecommunication blackout in parts of the province.
Pro-establishment narrative
Starlink would be a great step toward ensuring the Iranian people have access to the outside world when the regime in Tehran seeks to silence them. The recent protests against the regime and the subsequent denial of telecommunication access are prime examples of why Starlink could be so useful in the fight against autocracy and dictatorship.
Establishment-critical narrative
Musk's Starlink is simply another vehicle of US and Western imperialism in the Global South. Indeed, Musk is intimately connected to the US's national security state, serving as one of its most important business partners. Starlink's services have even reportedly been provided to Neo-Nazi groups in Ukraine, all because the Pentagon wanted them to have such technology.
Syed Murder Case: Judge Overturns Conviction
On Monday, a Maryland circuit court judge vacated Adnan Syed's conviction in the 1999 murder of his former girlfriend — a case that gained attention after the popular podcast "Serial" cast doubts about Syed's guilt in 2014.
Hae Min Lee, who previously dated Syed - 17 at the time - in high school, was found strangled and buried in a park. The investigation led to Syed through cell phone tower records and testimony from one of his friends.
The ruling came days after prosecutors in Baltimore filed a motion to overthrow Syed's conviction, citing doubts about the validity of the cellphone records and new evidence that reportedly implicates two other suspects.
Establishment-critical narrative
While this is certainly a win, Syed's case calls attention to the troubling issues in the criminal justice system. Syed has been behind bars for more than 20 years due to a weak investigation that violated its legal obligation to ensure a fair trial — a discovery that was disclosed years ago.
Pro-establishment narrative
While nobody wants to see an innocent man in jail, we shouldn't jump to conclusions. The state is doing its due diligence by reopening the investigation, which should be left to experts and not sensationalized for entertainment.
Report: Social Media Still Boosts Election Fraud Claims
A study from the NYU Stern Center for Business and Human Rights released on Monday blames Meta, TikTok, Twitter and Youtube for allegedly continuing to spread false claims surrounding election fraud in the 2020 US election.
The report faults the companies for the erosion of confidence in the democratic process by allegedly allowing election denialism to proliferate, and providing a platform for the controversial claim that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, and that this fall’s midterms could also be fraudulent.
All the major platforms have announced plans to combat disinformation before the midterms, including Facebook’s intent to reject ads that encourage people not to vote or call the election’s legitimacy into question. But the report details how each company’s measures have so far been insufficient.
Democratic narrative
This report simply reiterates what we already knew - social media powers haven’t done enough to stop the dangerous spread of election denialism. While the blame lies squarely with Republicans like Trump for initiating these lies, social media companies have a moral responsibility to prevent their proliferation, including by providing better fact-checking tools and the removal of content that’s obviously false.
Republican narrative
The real damage is being done by social media companies restricting free speech, not by them doing too little. But after colluding with Democrats in 2020 to suppress information they deemed fake or potentially harmful to then-candidate Biden’s campaign - such as the Hunter Biden laptop story - it looks like the powerhouses of social media are going to put their thumbs on the scales again to harm Republicans.
Mexico's Pacific Coast Rocked by 7.6-Magnitude Earthquake
On Monday, a 7.6 magnitude earthquake rocked the central Pacific coast of Mexico, killing at least one person. This took place on the anniversary of two devastating earthquakes in Mexico's history.
Initially measured at 7.5 magnitude by the US Geological Survey (USGS), the quake began around 1:05 p.m., bringing early reports of damage to structures. The epicenter was recorded at 23 mi. southeast of Aquila, near the border of Colima and Michoacán states at a depth of 9.4 mi.
This came five years to the day that an earthquake killed 370 people in central and southern regions of the country, and, on the same day in 1985, another quake killed 5K people. Sept. 19 has been characterized as a day of fear in popular culture.
Establishment-critical narrative
Within Latin America, Chile has become the gold standard for learning lessons from devastating earthquakes to enhance future preparedness. Unfortunately, in contrast, Mexico is repeatedly devastated by earthquakes, and the poor and vulnerable continue to suffer. Mexican officials need to step up and begin legislative conversations that will enhance preparedness before the next big quake.
Pro-establishment narrative
For decades, Mexican authorities have been working to develop a detailed disaster risk reduction and preparedness plan. Through a presidential mandate, a federal, large-scale earthquake plan was then developed. Mexico now effectively coordinates federal agencies, civil society groups, and the private sector to improve response and recovery to tragedies like these.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that 32.2K people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Arrests Along Mexico Border Exceed 2M in FY22
On Monday, the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released data showing that the number of arrests of undocumented immigrants along the US southwestern border has reached an all-time one-year-high, topping 2M in the 2022 fiscal year – which ends on Sept. 30.
Figures indicate a one-year migrant death record as well, with at least 782 lives lost in what the UN International Organization for Migration has deemed the world's deadliest migration land route.
CBP Commissioner Chris Magnus blamed the "failing communist regimes in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela" for this new wave of migration, arguing that the Biden admin. has been able to generally slow the flow of migrants from Mexico and Central America.
Republican narrative
Though this figure is emblematic of the Biden administration's failure to contain the border crisis, Biden has passed the buck to "failing communist regimes" in Latin America, as if Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela have started failing recently. It was Biden's soft policies that created this perfect storm. They reinforce a vicious cycle that encourages immigrants to try to illegally cross the border into the US.
Democratic narrative
Indeed, the migration flows across the US-Mexico border have reached a peak in some ways during the Biden administration - including an all-time high in arrests - but they aren't unprecedented at all. Nearly 50% of those arrested have been quickly expelled from the US. Also, in the early 2000s unlawful entries were much higher, peaking at 3.7M in 2000 and 2.8M in 2006. Context is vital here.
Feds Charge 47 for Stealing $250M in COVID Relief Funds
Federal prosecutors on Tuesday announced charges against 47 individuals accused of stealing $250M from a federal program designed to feed needy children in Minnesota during the COVID pandemic.
US Attorney Andrew Luger called it "the largest pandemic fraud in the United States," adding that the charges include "conspiracy, wire fraud, money laundering, and paying and receiving illegal kickbacks."
Among the defendants is the executive director of the charity Feeding our Future, whose employees are accused of recruiting people under the auspices of serving meals to thousands of kids per day. In total, the defendants were reimbursed for 125M meals that were never served.
Pro-establishment narrative
Feeding our Future was entirely focused on helping those in need, not on fraudulent schemes that took advantage of children to get rich. If any fraud occurred, it was without the knowledge of the executive director. A transparent investigation is more than welcome to get to the bottom of these allegations.
Establishment-critical narrative
This is another sign that COVID relief programs are rife with issues. Though an indictment never proves guilt, it seems that the senior leadership of this group knew exactly what they were doing. It's devastating that Feeding Our Future abused a public program designed to help the most vulnerable during COVID and defrauded taxpayers of a quarter of a billion dollars.