Armenia and Azerbaijan Negotiate Ceasefire
An Armenian security official said late on Wednesday that a new ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan had been reached following the most severe fighting between the countries since 2020.
While Azerbaijan hasn't yet confirmed the truce, the Armenian Defense Ministry said hours earlier that hostilities had ceased after two days of heavy fighting between the longtime adversaries.
Also on Wednesday, Armenia’s PM Nikol Pashinyan claimed that Baku’s military had taken control of 10 square kilometers of Armenian territory during the latest clashes and that Yerevan had appealed to the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to help restore its territorial integrity.
Narrative A
The underlying cause of the recent military clashes is that Yerevan still doesn't recognize Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and sovereignty - which includes recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as Azeri territory. To ensure peace, a new demarcation and delimitation process must be initiated. Unfortunately, Armenia is preventing this by imposing many unreasonable preconditions.
Narrative B
It was Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, that started a brutal war against Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, even after the official cessation of fighting, there is no end to Baku's ceasefire violations and aggressions against Armenians. These include cutting off natural gas supplies to the local population. So far, only Russian peacekeepers have prevented Azerbaijan from unleashing a new full-blown war.
Narrative C
The timing of the recent violence is suspicious. On the one hand, there are speculations that Moscow might be behind it to distract attention from recent developments in Ukraine. Then again, Baku may have seen Moscow's distraction and the EU's growing interest in Azerbaijan's gas as an opportune time to pursue its interests militarily. Either way, if the truce doesn't last there is a real danger that the Ukraine war might escalate across the Eurasian landmass.
Day 204 Roundup: Zelenskyy in Car Crash as Russian Missile Strikes Cause Flooding in Kryvyi Rih
Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy was involved in a car crash on his return from a visit to troops in the Kharkiv region, his spokesman Sergii Nikiforov said on Thursday. He reportedly didn't suffer serious injuries after a passenger vehicle collided with his presidential motorcade. The unnamed motorist received medical attention from Zelenskyy's medical team and was taken away by ambulance, Nikiforov said. The spokesman also added that the circumstances of the crash were being investigated.
It comes as European Commission Pres. Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Kyiv for her third visit to Ukraine on Thursday. She said she would address, "how to continue getting our economies and people closer while Ukraine progresses towards accession" to the bloc. Meanwhile, at the eight-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan's Samarkand, Russia's Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping held their first face-to-face talks since the beginning of the war.
The UN's António Guterres also held talks with Putin this week. Following a phone call on Wednesday, Guterres said the leaders discussed Russian fertilizer exports, prisoners of war, and the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. However, he added he has "minimal" hopes for a peace deal: "I would be lying if I would say that I hope that it will happen soon," he said.
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Nerd narrative
There is a 7% chance that Putin and Zelenskyy will meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Woman Holds up Beirut Bank to Withdraw Savings
28-year-old Lebanese activist and designer Sali Hafiz, alongside a group of other activists, stormed a BLOM Bank branch in Beirut on Wednesday to demand some of her savings to reportedly fund her sister's cancer treatment.
She managed to get $13K from the $20K she claims to have deposited in the bank. According to Hafiz, she was repeatedly denied access to more than $200 a month in Lebanese pounds.
Hafiz live-streamed her raid on the bank, in which she seemingly waved a toy gun and yelled at employees while her associates sealed entrances and reportedly threatened to set the place on fire.
Narrative A
Sali Hafiz is a hero, and her actions represent the frustrations of an entire nation that has been deprived of its savings for nearly three years. As millions of Lebanese have been thrown into poverty by corrupt politicians and bank managers, such desperate measures are a form of retribution for this injustice.
Narrative B
While Hafiz's actions may seem noble to some, she, like many others inside and outside Lebanon, is blaming the wrong people. It's the outside influence of Iran, as well as Hezbollah, that has pushed Lebanon to the brink, and the Lebanese people must acknowledge this to truly move forward and fix their country.
Swedish PM Resigns as Right-Wing Parties Win Vote
With 99% of the votes counted in Sweden's national election on Sunday, PM Magdalena Andersson conceded defeat at a press conference on Wednesday and said she would formally resign this Thursday.
After informing the speaker of the Riksdag [parliament], Andreas Norlen, Andersson will continue as prime minister in a caretaking capacity until a new government is in place. The speaker will then ask the leader of the center-right Moderates, Ulf Kristersson, to try to create a new government.
A major winner of Sunday's election was the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, which is now the second-biggest party in the Riksdag, though they aren't considered likely to lead the next government.
Left narrative
With Sweden's long history of liberal traditions, these election results come as a shock for many, as far-right Sweden Democrats emerged from neo-Nazi activity. The party's position as the largest party on the right places them in a strong position, which is a scary thought for many Swedes today.
Right narrative
The Social Democrat government has let the welfare state fall apart. Sweden is now a country ravaged by crime. Now is the time for change to make the nordic nation the safe and successful country it once was.
South Korea: Google and Meta Fined $72M for Violating Privacy Law
South Korea's Personal Information and Protection Commission has fined Google $50M and Meta $22M for tracking consumers' online behavior without consent and using data for targeted advertisements.
This is the steepest penalty ever given in South Korea for violating information protection laws and Seoul's first fine regarding misuse of information on customized advertising platforms.
Alleged privacy violations include Google hiding its setting screen on data collection and setting the default to 'agree.' Meta is accused of only asking for agreements when a user creates an account and doing so in an unclear manner.
Pro-establishment narrative
This is a positive sign. Previous actions from governments to regulate tech giants haven't been effective, especially when safeguarding user data. Institutions worldwide must continue to apply pressure if we wish to see real change. We need stronger regulation to protect the privacy of individuals.
Establishment-critical narrative
Government regulation can't be the sole solution. Individual users must be more vigilant to check their settings and actually read the fine print about what information is collected and how it's used. We should know by now that our phones and apps constantly gather data on us. This is about the consumer level - buyer beware.
WHO: COVID Pandemic 'End Is In Sight'
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Wednesday said of the COVID pandemic, "We are not there yet, but the end is in sight." Global deaths during the week of Sept. 5-11 were the lowest since March 2020 and new weekly cases fell 28% in that time.
In a press briefing urging efforts to make gains against the virus, Ghebreyesus stated, "A marathon runner does not stop when the finish line comes into view, she runs harder."
The WHO also outlined six key actions for governments, including guidance for testing, vaccination, managing the disease, maintaining infection control measures in health facilities, limiting the spread of misinformation, and community engagement.
Narrative A
The WHO's optimism that the pandemic may be ending is warranted, but vaccination is a huge tool in continuing to bring these COVID numbers down. About two-thirds of the world, and the US, have been vaccinated, but those numbers could be better, especially in lower-income countries. Without optimizing the vaccine tools we have, hospitalizations and deaths will hold steady.
Narrative B
It's okay to take Tedros' words with a grain of salt. COVID numbers are decreasing, but there needs to be a cost-benefit calculation about pressing hard with stringent public health measures and the adverse effects on society and the economy. At this point, most scientists agree that the virus is unlikely to ever be eradicated, and learning to live with and manage the disease is a viable strategy.
Narrative C
A responsible conversation about the potential wind-down of the pandemic means talking about those left disabled with "Long COVID." The WHO estimates that 17M people in Europe and Central Asia may have this condition. Worldwide, this figure may be 150M people or higher. The potential impacts on physical health, mental health, society, and the economy are enormous - this issue must be given the attention it deserves.
Florida Gov. Sends Migrants to Massachusetts
On Wednesday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sent two planes carrying an estimated 50 migrants to Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts.
A spokesperson for DeSantis said in a statement that the flights were "part of the state's relocation program to transport illegal immigrants to sanctuary destinations" that he claimed can "better facilitate the care of these individuals who they have invited into our country.”
According to Martha's Vineyard authorities, two emergency shelters have been established at local churches, with additional space available if further arrivals occur. Emergency management has also reached out to state and local authorities for help.
Republican narrative
DeSantis has one-upped his Republican colleagues to both share the burden of illegal immigrants and expose the hypocrisy of the coastal elites. Residents of places like Martha’s Vineyard advocate for these people to be allowed in the country as long as they don’t settle in their city. Now maybe Democrats will take this issue seriously.
Democratic narrative
The competition between DeSantis and Abbott has hit a new low. Both of the governors are using asylum seekers as political pawns in a misguided attempt to oppose Biden's immigration policies and foment anti-immigrant sentiment. Luckily, DeSantis’ cruel political gambit landed these people in a community that's providing them with compassion and care.
Tentative Deal Reached to Avoid US Railroad Strike
US freight railroads and union leaders on Thursday reached a tentative labor agreement — brokered by Biden's administration — to avoid a national strike that would've damaged large parts of the economy.
The deal includes a 24% pay raise for thousands of rail workers over the next five years, stretching back to 2020, as well as an additional vacation day, and unpaid time off for medical appointments without penalty.
Once ratified, the deal — which affects around 60k employees — will also implement an immediate payout of $11k per worker. This reportedly avoids the $2B daily that the Association of American Railroads estimated a strike would cost.
Democratic narrative
This is a huge win for Biden not only because he avoided a disastrous strike, but also because it reinforced his commitment to the trade unions who are huge supporters of Democrats and will be vital to victories in this fall’s midterm elections. Once ratified, this deal will give Democrats another Biden accomplishment to boast about on the campaign trail.
Republican narrative
Biden shouldn’t be celebrating this deal, which was in part caused by the inflation crisis he seemingly doesn’t know how to end. Railroad unions needed higher wages because the cost of living has skyrocketed, but giving workers more money will only keep the US in a wage-price spiral. This isn't a winning campaign topic.
US Mortgage Rates Breach 6%
On Thursday, mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac reported that the US's 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.02% — up from 5.89% last week and 2.86% a year ago — breaking the 6% threshold for the first time since the 2008 market housing crash.
This comes as the US is facing its worst inflation in 40 years, and follows a key inflation reading on Tuesday that revealed that, although inflation has slowed for a second month due to retreating gas prices, the cost of other essentials has increased.
To tame inflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has so far raised its benchmark interest rate four times this year, with economists forecasting a further three-quarter point increase in tandem with a Fed meeting next week.
Establishment-critical narrative
Although the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates, its actions influence them. The central bank waited too long to cool inflation, and now the housing market is paying the price mortgage rates are rising faster than the news can keep up with - increasing pressure on an economy already tormented by relentless inflation.
Pro-establishment narrative
The process of bringing down inflation is unpopular and pain-inducing, but necessary. There is broad consensus among Fed bankers and economists that it's time to increase quantitative tightening to rein in inflation. The Fed is acting well within its mandate to try and tamp down economic pressures.
Patagonia Founder Donates Company to Fight Climate Change
On Wed., Yvon Chouinard, the billionaire founder of outdoor apparel brand Patagonia, said he will be giving his company away to a private trust to use its profits to fight climate change.
Instead of taking the company public or selling the $3B brand, 83-year-old Chouinard and his wife and two kids will transfer all of their company voting power and shares to protecting and conserving nature.
Since the shares were donated as a gift, the family had to pay a $17.5M tax on the transfer and Patagonia will no longer be distributing any profits to the them.
Narrative B
This is the clearest proof yet that Yvon Chouinard is a leader in the movement away from shareholder capitalism and toward stakeholder capitalism. In a world infected with inequality and environmental destruction, Patagonia has chosen to put the Earth and its inhabitants above profit.
Narrative A
While Chouinard's decision to break away from the age-old shareholder motto is a bold move with noble motives to help the planet, it's too soon to celebrate. Without a financial incentive to keep on track, it remains to be seen whether this strategy will succeed.