France: Trial for 2016 Nice Terrorist Attack Begins
On Mon., a French terrorism court opened the trial of eight people accused of helping Tunisian national Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel drive a truck into a crowd that had gathered on the streets of Nice to celebrate Bastille Day in 2016.
Seven men and one woman are accused of having helped the attacker obtain weapons, rent the truck and survey the route. The attack was the second most deadly in peacetime France, claiming the lives of 86 people and injuring hundreds.
Days after the massacre, the Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the attack, but French prosecutors have found no evidence linking Bouhlel to them.
Pro-establishment narrative
By prosecuting suspects of terror attacks in a court of law, French authorities have given a democratic answer to these brutal incidents while demonstrating that terrorism has failed to damage the fabric of Western civilization. Defendants won't be deprived of their rights to due process, and sentences will be fair and impartial.
Establishment-critical narrative
So far, the French justice system has failed to consider that these tragic attacks must also be seen within the context of Western leaders waging war in the Middle East. By not recognizing their responsibility, terrorism trials have only widened the gap between hawkish Frenchmen and frustrated members of the Muslim community, leading to further radicalization and offering no solution to this problem.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 25.1K deaths will occur as a result of terrorism in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China Approves World's First Inhaled COVID Vaccine
China has become the first country to approve an inhaled COVID vaccine for emergency use as a booster shot, using a harmless adenovirus as a carrier for genetic code to teach the body to fight the virus.
The vaccine, called Convidecia Air, changes the liquid form of the vaccine into an aerosol using a nebulizer and can then be inhaled through the mouth using the nebulizer machine.
The vaccine maker, CanSino Biologics, stated that the needle-free vaccine "can effectively induce comprehensive immune protection in response to SARS-CoV-2 after just one breath."
Narrative A
Nasal vaccines should act more quickly than injected vaccines and could theoretically reduce transmission while also preventing mild illness. With over 100 oral or nasal vaccines in development around the world, China has made the first step in what will hopefully be a common way of treating COVID in the coming years.
Narrative B
With the vaccine lacking any publicly available verified or peer-reviewed data on its efficacy, the approval of CanSino's inhaled vaccine may indicate that China is feeling the pressure of its zero-COVID policy - which disrupts travel and the wider economy - ahead of key political meetings next month.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that China will end its zero-COVID policy by December 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 196 Roundup: UK's New PM Pledges Support to Ukraine; Kharkiv Settlements Reportedly Recaptured
In her first call with Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy as head of state on Tues., Britain's new PM, Liz Truss, pledged her "full backing" for Ukraine and said it "could depend on the UK's assistance for the long term," according to a Downing Street statement.
Truss, a Conservative, also spoke with US Pres. Joe Biden. According to the White House, the two "discussed the importance of continued close cooperation on global challenges, including supporting Ukraine as it defends itself against Russian aggression, addressing the challenges posed by China, preventing Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon, and securing sustainable and affordable energy resources."
Elsewhere, in a wide-ranging speech addressing the Eastern Economic Forum on Wed., Russia's Vladimir Putin said it would be "impossible" to leave the country isolated, and that Moscow would defy the West's attempts to exclude it from the world stage, stating new opportunities were presenting themselves in the East.
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 40% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Fauci: COVID Vaccines May Soon Be Given Annually
At a White House briefing on Tues., Dr. Anthony Fauci - director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) - stated that COVID vaccines were heading towards a "cadence similar to that of the annual influenza vaccine."
He said that potential annual jabs were becoming "increasingly clear" in the "absence of a dramatically different variant."
He further stated that each year the vaccine will be refined for whichever strain of COVID is most dominant within the US. Fauci, 81, recently announced he's stepping down from his position at the NIAID.
Narrative A
By likening updated COVID booster vaccines to the annual flu shots, the White House is attempting to encourage and calm COVID-weary Americans. The message reflects another transition point in the fight against the virus. Although not the stark danger it once was, hundreds are still dying daily and health officials must still encourage the public to continue to take COVID seriously.
Narrative B
Vaccines and boosters are great, but Omicron is mild and spreading too quickly to be stopped altogether. We should aim for natural herd immunity and vaccinate only the vulnerable. Resistance is futile.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that COVID will be eradicated by November 2091, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: FBI Finds Foreign Nuclear Info at Mar-a-Lago
Per a report from the Washington Post on Tues., some classified materials retrieved from former Pres. Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence were so restricted that some senior national security officials in the Biden admin aren't authorized to view them.
Sources in the report stated that only Biden, some members of his Cabinet, or near-Cabinet-level officials can permit other federal officials to know about such 'special-access' programs.
The report also stated that a document on an undisclosed foreign nation's military defenses and nuclear capabilities was found in Trump's Florida residence. Both the Dept. of Justice (DOJ) and FBI have so far declined to comment on the claims.
Democratic narrative
Just a couple of weeks ago, Trump taunted the FBI and DOJ for not finding any nuclear documents during the Mar-a-Lago raid. The GOP ecosystem followed suit, predicting a backlash against the Biden admin "unless nuclear secrets" were found. Now, with this jaw-dropping revelation that further endangers US national security, Trump and his allies will tie themselves into pretzels trying to spin his latest low point.
Republican narrative
These allegations are anonymous government leaks with many unanswered questions. While the term "nuclear documents" has been bandied about by the left-leaning press, there's very little information on the severity and content of the materials. The recent approval of Trump's request for a 'special master' should put the breaks on the DOJ, which has been dubious about respecting attorney-client privilege to date.
Nerd narrative
There's a 26% chance that Donald Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Tests Intercontinental Ballistic Missile
The US Air Force on Wed. test launched an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.
According to Air Force Brig. Gen. Ryder, the launch was a scheduled routine test and is meant to demonstrate the readiness of the US military's nuclear forces and "provide confidence in the security and effectiveness of the nation's nuclear deterrent."
The US notified Russia and the Hague in advance, following standard procedures and treaty obligations.
Narrative A
While there's no doubt that nuclear deterrence is crucial, America's nuclear arsenal is grossly oversized and expensive, and it's time to downsize. There's no better place to start than with its outdated ICBM fleet, which is costly, easily targeted, and adds little deterrence.
Narrative B
Despite criticisms, all three legs of the US nuclear arsenal - including its land-based ICBMs - are vital to nuclear deterrence. While the size of the ICBM force may seem excessive, it sends the message to allies and adversaries alike that the US is fully-equipped and prepared to retaliate.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US has a clear double-standard when it comes to missile testing. America views its own ICBM tests as useful and justified, while condemning tests by its foes - such as North Korea - as threatening and destabilizing. What's truly needed is diplomacy, not further military provocations.
Nerd narrative
There's a 33% chance that a nuclear weapon will be detonated as an act of war by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
New Mexico County Commissioner Barred for Jan. 6 Involvement
In a ruling on Tues., New Mexico State District Judge Francis Mathew removed Couy Griffin, Otero County Commissioner and co-founder of Cowboys for Trump, from office and prohibited him from ever holding public office again.
Mathew cited the Civil War-era Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which prohibits any officeholder who "engaged in insurrection or rebellion" from ever holding state or federal office again while issuing his decision.
Mathew also said Cowboys for Trump "played a key role in Stop the Steal mobilization efforts" ahead of Jan. 6. Video footage shows Griffin breaching security barriers and speaking out against then-VP Mike Pence with a bull horn.
Democratic narrative
Griffin represents the worst among election deniers and right-wing conspiracy theorists, so it was easy for Mathew to take these actions. Hopefully, this ruling will turn the tide nationwide because too many Republicans have been let off the hook by the courts since Jan. 6.
Republican narrative
This is a double standard. If Griffin is an insurrectionist who violated the 14th Amendment, then so too are BLM rioters as well as those who protest outside Supreme Court justices' homes. Using it against Griffin while letting left-wing extremists off the hook is the ultimate hypocrisy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 28% chance that the Insurrection Act will be invoked before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Scientists Create Hydrogen Fuel from Air
According to a paper published on Tues. in the journal Nature Communications, scientists have reportedly invented a solar-powered "direct air electrolyzer" (DAE), which allows for hydrogen to be extracted from the air rather than liquid water.
The solar-powered prototype produces hydrogen fuel with over 99% purity and can work with humidity levels as low as 4% - a feature highly beneficial for regions where water is scarce.
The scientists found that sulphuric acid was best at acting as a sponge-like material for capturing airborne water.
Narrative A
This exciting innovation could be a key to solving our most severe environmental and climate problems, as even the dryest regions of the world will be able to extract hydrogen for a renewable energy source. If this invention continues to progress, technological necessities such as cars could eventually be run by hydropower, leaving the reliance on fossil fuels in the past.
Narrative B
We need to separate the promise of exciting "inventions" from the realities of implementation. Whether it's new COVID pills or breakthroughs in alternative energy technology, unless there's heavy investment in infrastructure, these "inventions" often don't deliver. We can't rely on science and technology alone to solve our energy problems - innovation is overrated, and implementation is vastly underrated.
Juul to Settle Multi-State Lawsuit for $438.5M
On Tues., electronic cigarette maker Juul Labs agreed to settle for $438.5M in a lawsuit brought forward by 33 states and Puerto Rico that claims the company marketed its nicotine products to minors.
The settlement, in which Juul didn't acknowledge any wrongdoing, prohibits the company from marketing to youth, funding education in schools, and inaccurately reporting the amount of nicotine in its products.
Since facing pressure from regulators in 2019, Juul had already stopped much of its advertising and discontinued sales of most of its flavored pods that attracted younger customers.
Narrative A
While this settlement is a step in the right direction, more needs to be done to prevent youth access to nicotine – starting with the FDA removing the problematic products from the market. There are still other companies like Juul out there, but hopefully, the settlement will discourage them and the FDA will be able to crack down on them, too.
Narrative B
The best way to reduce teenage vaping is through education and transparency, not hysteria. The reality is that vaping is safer than smoking, although it can be very addictive. Kids can handle the truth, and when they trust the information they're getting, they're more likely to do the right thing.
California: Hurricane Brings Wind, Rain Amid Heatwave
On Fri., a rare tropical storm, known as Hurricane Kay, started to bring strong winds in Southern California and is expected to cause multiple days of flooding in the Southwest. This comes as California is facing an extreme heatwave, with San Diego currently under an excessive heat warning.
Kay made landfall in Mexico with 70 mph winds on Thurs., and is the first hurricane to near land in the state since 1997. It's expected to dump two to four inches of rain across southern Calif. with isolated instances of up to 10 inches.
This comes as the Calif. Independent System Operator (CAISO) issued its highest level - stage three alert - energy emergency amid the heat wave that saw electricity demand reach a record-high on Tuesday evening.
Republican narrative
With Newsom avoiding using proven alternative energy sources, one can only wonder how much he cares about Californians. The man who shut down renewable energy nuclear plants - which caused this energy crisis in the first place - is now asking residents to endure the heat while he looks to be enjoying sweater weather air conditioning wherever he is.
Democratic narrative
Thanks to the rising temperatures from climate change, America's largest state now faces the oddest, most devastating weather forecast ever. If you couldn't tell the climate was changing before, the fact that Calif. is experiencing droughts, heatwaves, and hurricanes at the same time should open your eyes.
Nerd narrative
There's an 85% chance there will be at least 2˚C degrees of global warming by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.