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De-extinction Company to Work on Resurrecting Tasmanian Tiger
On Tues., Texas-based de-extinction company Colossal Biosciences announced they will attempt to resurrect the thylacine, or the Tasmanian Tiger - Australia's only marsupial apex predator.
De-extinction is an initiative designed to create new versions of lost species. Since 1999, Australian scientists have hoped to bring back what was once the country's top predator. If the thylacine is resurrected the hope is that it would help restore balance to the ecosystem.
The company, which is also attempting to restore the wooly mammoth, will be working alongside the Thylacine Integrated Genetic Restoration Research Lab at the University of Melbourne.
Narrative A
Losing an apex predator as Australia did almost a century ago has far-reaching environmental repercussions, such as the spreading of disease, invasive species, and a disruption to natural biogeochemical cycles. The resurrection of the Tasmanian Tiger will re-balance the ecosystem and advance research for the conservation community. This is excellent work.
Narrative B
While, in theory, this is exciting research, there's a lack of consideration for the many technical, ethical, and ecological challenges, such as the welfare of the animals, which would be subjected to a life in captivity before an uncertain reintroduction into the wild. The money would be better spent on preventing the extinction of existing animals.
Brazil: Former Pres. Lula Leads as Presidential Campaign Begins
On Tues., Brazil's presidential campaign, which political experts expect to be the most polarized in decades, officially kicked off with former Pres. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the polls.
The most recent survey, released Mon., gives Lula a 12-point lead in the first round and a 16-point advantage in the event of a second round. A run-off will take place if no candidate wins 50% plus one of the valid votes.
Although latest polls indicate Bolsonaro has been narrowing the presidential race, it's unclear if this could be game-changing, as he would have to take votes directly from Lula.
Left narrative
Bolsonaro's disastrous term has changed the minds of the Brazilian voters who elected him in 2018. He has systemically threatened democracy by gathering support within the armed forces, attacking the Supreme Court, and baselessly claiming the election could be rigged. If he stays in office, not only would democracy be endangered, but so would the Amazon rainforest.
Right narrative
Lula used his political influence over Brazil's top court to have his convictions of corruption overturned and allow him to run for office again. While the mainstream media claims that Bolsonaro threatens democracy and the environment, it was during Lula's two terms that Brazil deepened ties with authoritarian states such as China, Cuba, Russia, and Venezuela, and fires in the Amazon hit all-time high rates.
Cynical narrative
Although the Brazilian electoral dispute between a vengeful left and a toxic right will be hyped as a turning point for the nation, whoever takes office will have to deal with the hyper-fragmented party system that only benefits the "Centrão", or the "Big Middle" – the congressional majority without clear principles that has historically been able to control presidents.
Nerd narrative
There's a 28% chance that Jair Bolsonaro will be president of Brazil on Jan. 2, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 175 Roundup: UN's Guterres and Turkey's Erdogan to Meet Zelenskyy in Ukraine
As Ukraine announced that over 560K tonnes of grain have left its ports since the implementation of a Turkey-brokered, UN-backed deal, the UN has said its Sec. Gen. António Guterres, will on Thurs. travel to Lviv to meet Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy alongside Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,
Leaders are expected to assess the grain export deal. However, UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters that they will also no doubt discuss the situation at the Russia-controlled Zaporizhzhia power plant and a UN fact-finding mission into the deaths of POWs at Olenivka prison, as well as "the need for a political solution."
Meanwhile, an unnamed Ukrainian official again told Washington Post reporters that Ukrainian special forces were behind the attacks on Crimea that caused explosions at an ammunition depot in the Dzhankoy region on Tuesday. A Russian military base in central Crimea was also reportedly struck later in the day.
Pro-establishment narrative
With the help of Western military aid, Ukraine's southern counteroffensive has commenced, and Russia's commanders will be increasingly worried by the strikes deep into territory it supposedly controls – including three attacks on Crimea in less than a week.
Establishment-critical narrative
Multi-billion dollar weapons packages will make little difference in the outcome of the war. The US has been meddling in Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, and what we're witnessing is a geopolitical ponzi scheme to benefit those aligned with the military-industrial complex. War is a lucrative racket.
Nerd narrative
There's a 21% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia by Dec. 31, 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Cuba to Allow Some Foreign Investment in Wholesale, Retail
On Mon., Cuba announced plans to allow foreign investors to fully own local wholesalers or enter the market through joint ventures for the first time since the 1959 revolution led by Fidel Castro.
Deputy Trade Minister Ana Teresita Gonzalez said that retail would be more restricted, but that foreign investment would be "selectively" allowed in that sector as well, provided the investment contributed to the country's socialist goals and lowered prices.
Analysts, however, reportedly expressed doubts that the economic measures would lead to more raw materials and goods reaching producers and consumers in Cuba.
Narrative A
This latest announcement, along with other reforms that Cuba is undertaking, represents a major ideological shift in a country where the government has monopolized the economy for years. Allowing foreign investment in wholesale and retail trade will boost the local industry at a time of severe shortages in basic goods. This is the right decision.
Narrative B
Allowing "selective" foreign investments in wholesale and retail trade is too little, too late, and won't actually adjust the country's state-led economic model. The limitations and regulations that accompany the latest announcement mean that overseas investments will remain under state regulation, and will likely have little impact on the ailing economy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be at least four communist states by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Apple Suppliers Looking to Manufacture in Vietnam
Two of tech giant Apple's main suppliers, Taiwan-based Foxconn and Luxshare Precision Industry, are reportedly in talks to manufacture Apple Watches and Macbooks in Vietnam for the first time.
In the wake of the COVID pandemic and related supply chain interruptions, Apple has been shifting some elements of iPhone production from China to other countries, including India, where it began manufacturing the iPhone 13 this year.
Countries like India, as well as Mexico and Vietnam, are becoming increasingly important labor markets for contract manufacturers supplying American brands as they try to diversify production away from China.
Pro-establishment narrative
China's Zero-COVID policy, as well as the country's silence on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, highlight Apple's need to shift its primary manufacturing away from the PRC. The company can find other countries with cheap and available labor, so this news is a net positive for the global economy.
Establishment-critical narrative
For anyone thinking companies like Apple make their manufacturing decisions based on human rights, they should delve a little deeper into the issue. The real reason they're joining Nike and Adidas in moving to Vietnam isn't a reaction to China's alleged human rights abuses, it's because COVID disrupted the supply chain and PRC wages have been on the rise.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that China will end its "Covid-Zero" policy by October 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Rep. Liz Cheney Loses GOP Primary for House Seat
Rep. Liz Cheney, one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former Pres. Trump following the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, has lost her primary in Wyoming to Trump-backed candidate Harriet Hageman.
The result was widely predicted by opinion polls, which showed Cheney lagging well behind Hageman, primarily due to her outspoken opposition to Trump and her participation in the House Select Committee investigating the Capitol riot.
After conceding the loss, Cheney offered public remarks including that "no American should support election deniers for any position of genuine responsibility." Cheney has consistently rebuked Trump's claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.
Republican narrative
Cheney's futile attempts to impeach Trump in 2021 and her obsession with the former president not only antagonized Republicans on Capitol Hill but the voters of Wyoming. Cheney didn't spend enough time addressing the needs of her state, and her loss was inevitable.
Democratic narrative
In another era, Cheney would've been the ideal Republican candidate. However, she has found herself at odds with the party through her opposition to Trump. But it would be premature to write her off just yet with the Jan 6. hearings through the start of the New Year and her eyes on 2024. She is an important national voice against Trumpism.
Nerd narrative
There is a 58% chance that the Republicans will hold both the House and the Senate after the 2022 midterms, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Cancels $3.9B of ITT Tech Student Loans
The Biden admin. said Tues. it would cancel the federal loans of students who attended ITT Technical Institute as far back as 2005 because authorities found "widespread and pervasive misrepresentations" at the for-profit college chain, which closed in 2016.
This round of loan cancellation forgives $3.9B in debt for 208k borrowers, bringing the total amount the Biden admin. has forgiven to $32B since taking office.
The debt is being forgiven using a federal rule known as borrower defense, which protects students from institutions that make false advertising claims or commit fraud.
Democratic narrative
In response to a divisive issue, Biden has taken a targeted approach and, so far, it's worked. He's managed to do more than any prior administration in terms of student debt cancellation, and this latest decision protects students from assuming the burden of a corrupt institution's lies.
Progressive narrative
Though Biden has made significant steps to address this problem, he still needs to go bigger and enact universal loan forgiveness at a level well above the $10k per borrower he's reportedly considering. There are people who actually owe more than they originally borrowed, a sure sign of a broken system that needs to be fixed.
Republican narrative
Though Democrats may try to convince the American people that student loan forgiveness is a fair policy, it would essentially be forcing working Americans to pay for the degrees of the privileged. Just because fraud was committed in this case doesn't mean that taxpayers should have to foot the bill.
FDA Rules on Over-the-Counter Hearing Aids
The FDA approved a rule Tues. to allow hearing aids to be sold over-the-counter, without a prescription or a doctor's exam, to adults "with perceived mild to moderate hearing impairment." The final rule will take effect in Oct. when the products will be available in drugstores, retail stores, and online.
The FDA claims the rule will lower the costs of hearing aids, saving consumers around $2,800. It approximates that 30M Americans experience hearing loss.
Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) introduced a bill to make hearing aids available over the counter and Trump signed it into law in 2017, but the final approval process has been slow. Last July, Biden issued an executive order urging the FDA to finalize its rule soon.
Narrative A
This is a breakthrough for eliminating market consolidation as just five companies control 90% of the global hearing aid market. It also increases the number of options for consumers when the competition brings down costs and leads to greater innovation. This is a win for millions of Americans who will benefit from these devices.
Narrative B
Over-the-counter hearing aids aren't the panaceas they're being made out to be. Skipping the audiologist can lead to ill-fitting or even malfunctioning devices that could hurt the user's health. Advertising could promote stereotypes of the hearing impaired. And the financial cost could still be steep if these new devices need to be maintained and replaced frequently.
Turkey and Israel Restore Diplomatic Relations
Israel and Turkey announced on Wed. the return of full diplomatic ties between the two nations, including the reinstatement of ambassadors and consuls general after a four-year chill.
Although they still harbor deep differences, they've vowed to rebuild their relationship to promote regional stability, strengthen their international position, and expand their economic ties.
This rapprochement comes after a rare visit to Ankara made by Israeli Pres. Isaac Herzog earlier this year, which fortified contact between the nations and established mutual interest in normalizing ties.
Narrative A
Turkey is seeking to improve relations with Israel to reduce its energy dependence on Moscow and recover its influence in the Middle East, which was seriously affected by recent geopolitical shifts throughout the region. This has offered some leverage for Israel to normalize ties with Ankara without jeopardizing its relations with Mediterranean allies such as Egypt and Greece.
Narrative B
As new challenges have been emerging on the global stage, it's not only Turkey that's protecting its national interests by pursuing normalized ties in the Middle East. Yes, Israel's regional position has improved since the Abraham Accords, but Tel Aviv remains concerned about Iran's nuclear capabilities, and restoring its diplomatic relations with Ankara is an important step in preparing for a change in the regional balance of power.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Israel and Turkey's total trade volume will be at least $9.30B (in 2021 USD) in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
CDC Announces Restructuring Amid COVID Shortcomings
After calling for an in-depth review in April, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky announced a reorganization of the agency on Wed. after allegations it fell short in its COVID response.
Among the changes announced were restructuring the communications office, revamping its website to make public health guidance easier to find, and increasing the use of 'pre-print' reports for disseminating information to the public more quickly.
Other plans outlined in Walensky's brief included requiring states to report data and allowing the agency to hire staff more quickly by offering competitive salaries. Both suggestions would need congressional approval.
Right narrative
Don't restructure the CDC - disband it. No apology is going to make up for the way the CDC stripped Americans of their freedom during COVID, and flip-flopped in its advice about almost everything. This agency has outlived its usefulness.
Left narrative
This important institution has been underfunded for a long time. This restructuring is a testament to Director Walensky's leadership - she's being transparent about her agency's shortcomings and is willing to take steps to make necessary structural changes. Her announcement will help make America safer from future pandemics.