Iraq: Judiciary Says it Cannot Dissolve Parliament
Iraq's top judicial body says it has 'no authority' to dissolve the country's parliament days after cleric Muqtada al-Sadr gave the legislature one week to disband so new elections can be held.
Al-Sadr, whose political bloc won the largest number of seats in parliament in Oct., failed to form a majority government that excluded his Iran-aligned rivals. Last June, 73 members of his movement resigned after an administration had still not been established, and he tweeted on Wed. that the judiciary had one week to dissolve the legislature or "the revolutionaries will take another stance."
The Supreme Judicial Council - Iraq's top judicial body - said that it had discussed the request and found they did not have the authority to dismiss lawmakers or "intervene in the affairs of the legislative or executive authorities." However, they did back al-Sadr's "negative diagnosis of the political situation in the country and the continuing violation of the constitution."
Pro-establishment narrative
Sadr is interfering with the democratic process in Iraq, threatening to jeopardize the country's hard-won peace to seek a complete reform of the political system. Iraqi federal democracy is legitimate and supported by several stakeholders domestically and abroad. The country needs more dialogue, not an attempted coup.
Establishment-critical narrative
Iraq's democracy has been deteriorating due to Iranian influence in the national establishment. Under the control of Tehran, national institutions can only serve foreign interests and compromised Iraqi politicians while brave Iraqi people are threatened by pro-Iran militias. If the council won't take steps to change the parliament and stop corruption, it will be left up to the people.
Cynical narrative
Iraq is not headed towards a coup, but rather towards a political polarization. Though not a single group in Iraq is capable of carrying out a coup, no one is actually working on strengthening or stabilizing the country.
Day 163 Roundup: Turkey's Erdoğan Meets Putin in Russia; Zelenskyy Condemns Amnesty
On the back of a successful deal to resume the exports of Ukrainian grain, Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with counterpart Vladimir Putin at the Russian resort of Sochi on Friday. The pair were expected to discuss bilateral ties and Ukraine, as well as the conflict in Syria.
After the first shipment of Ukrainian grain left the port of Odesa on Mon., three more ships departed on Fri., Turkey's defense ministry confirmed. Two traveled from Chornomorsk and one from Odesa. They will be inspected at the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul before setting off towards destinations in Turkey, Ireland and Britain.
Meanwhile, amid rising global tensions, and following a visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi that triggered Chinese military drills, foreign ministers from the US, China and Russia attended the East Asia Summit in Cambodia on Friday. While communication between America's Antony Blinken and Russia's Sergei Lavrov has been sparse, the pair said at the summit that they're ready to discuss a potential prisoner swap after WNBA star Brittney Griner was sentenced to nine years in a Russian prison for drug possession an
Pro-establishment narrative
As the war shifts to the strategically important Donbas region of Donetsk, the US and its allies need to continue to do everything in their power to arm Ukraine with all the weapons they need. Doing so is the only way to push Putin's forces back as was done in Kyiv.
Pro-Russia narrative
As stated by Putin, the whole purpose of the war was never to invade Kyiv, but to liberate the ethnically Russian people of Donetsk and Luhansk, who have been subjected to systematic killing by Ukrainian forces for not recognizing the 2014 coup in Kyiv.
Nerd narrative
There is a 12% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UN Report: Rwanda Backing Rebels in DRC
A UN report claims to have found "solid evidence" that Rwandan troops have intervened militarily in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and supplied the "March 23 Movement" (M23) with weapons and other military equipment.
According to the report, prepared by UN Security Council experts, the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) allegedly operated in the country's eastern Rutshuru region between Nov. 2021 and July 2022, engaging in joint operations with M23 rebels against the Congolese army.
The report claims that several hundred Rwandan soldiers in eastern DRC also targeted rebel groups such as the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) - a Hutu rebel group that Kigali considers a threat.
Narrative A
What has been known for a long time is finally official even the UN recognizes that Rwanda is complicit in the unspeakable suffering in eastern DRC by supporting rebel groups. Rwanda has been meddling in Congolese affairs since its military intervention in the country in the late 1990s and has continuously plundered the DRC's resources. The West must stop turning a blind eye to Rwanda's criminal actions in the DRC.
Narrative B
This questionable UN analysis is the latest success for Kinshasa, which always likes to present itself as a victim. The same pitch will probably be made during the upcoming visit of US Secretary of State Blinken to the DRC. One can only hope that Blinken will not allow himself to be manipulated by the DRC.
China Sanctions Pelosi, Halts Military & Climate Cooperation After Taiwan Trip
On Fri., the PRC imposed unspecified sanctions on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and her immediate family members in response to her trip to Taiwan earlier this week.
China also announced that it would halt cooperation with the US in areas including military relations and climate change. This comes as the PRC also started a four-day military drill near Taiwan on Thursday.
During Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, she criticized China's policy toward the island and said that the US must not shy away from focusing on alleged Chinese human rights abuses because of US-PRC commercial interests.
Pro-China narrative
Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is an outright provocation and undermines China's sovereignty. Such actions must be deterred, and the US must abide by its historical commitment to respect the One China policy. The Chinese government has made the right move by sanctioning Pelosi and her family.
Anti-China narrative
China is clearly overreacting to Pelosi's visit. US support for Taiwan has been a cornerstone of US policy in Asia for over 70 years, and it is China who is being provocative by launching its largest ever military drills near the island.
Nerd narrative
There's a 16% chance that there will be a US-China war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
FBI Dir. Wray Testifies Before Senate Judiciary Committee
Testifying across a range of topics, FBI Director Christopher Wray on Thurs. told the Sen. Judiciary Committee he's worried about a terrorist attack on US soil, citing concerns "about the potential loss of sources and [intelligence] collection" in Afghanistan since US troops withdrew last summer.
He added that his concerns are focused not only on the security deterioration in Afghanistan leading to a revival of al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups, but also on terrorists on US soil who could be inspired by these international developments.
Wray also confirmed the FBI is investigating people deemed national security threats who might be in the US since their evacuation from Afghanistan, conceding the bureau doesn't know where they're all located.
Republican narrative
Wray's grilling by the Senate Judiciary Committee was deeply frustrating. His often obtuse answers confirmed GOP concerns about a hyper-politicized agency that lacks transparency. He was vague about Afghanistan, border security, pro-abortion domestic terrorism, nebulous definitions of "extremism" and "domestic terrorism," and allegations against Hunter Biden. Not a good performance.
Democratic narrative
Despite the GOP's pomp and circumstance on "red herrings" such as Hunter Biden, what should concern us all is that the FBI has its hands full with investigations into domestic terrorism, including those related to the abortion issue, and threats inspired by Trump supporters against election workers. What was clear was that Director Wray has his work cut out for him across a portfolio of pressing and dangerous issues.
Nerd narrative
There is a 49% chance that Hunter Biden will be indicted before November 5, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Coral Cover in Regions of Great Barrier Reef Highest in 36 Years
A new report from the Australian Institute of Marine Science says coral cover in some areas of the Great Barrier Reef is the highest in 36 years.
From Aug. 2021 to May 2022, the central and northern regions of the reef experienced some recovery while the hard coral cover in the southern region decreased due to an outbreak of crown-of-thorns starfish [which are destructive to coral].
The Australian agency found that 87 coral reefs experienced low levels of stress from events like cyclones and an increase in the starfish population. The area surveyed represents two-thirds of the Great Barrier Reef.
Narrative A
Although this year showed a rebound in coral levels in some areas of the Great Barrier Reef, the reef is far from being in the clear. It's only one summer away from a reversal of the new coral growth, and climate change will likely cause an increase in cyclones, coral bleaching, and other threats to the habitat.
Narrative B
The numbers don't back up the claims of climate alarmists when it comes to coral reefs. The risk of coral extinction is much smaller than originally feared because scientists have discovered that there are half a trillion corals worldwide - about the same number as birds on Earth. Coral is resilient and bouncing back in the Great Barrier reef, and even modest warming doesn't pose a serious extinction threat.
FL State Attorney Suspended for Declining to Enforce State Laws
Andrew Warren, a Democrat State Attorney in Florida, has been suspended by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), for refusing to enforce state laws on abortion and gender reassignment procedures.
During a press conference on Thurs., DeSantis claimed Warren "publicly put himself above the law" when he promised to not enforce a ban on abortion past 15-weeks or any restrictions on gender-reassignment for minors.
Warren was one of 90 elected prosecutors who, in June, made a commitment not to prosecute those seeking or facilitating abortions following the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court.
Republican narrative
DeSantis is right to be taking action against woke prosecutors who consider themselves above the law. Egregious violations of the rule of law such as Warren's blatant disregard for the decisions of elected legislators demand a harsh response.
Democratic narrative
Warren is an elected representative who became the face of progressive criminal justice reform in 2016 and has since been standing up for reproductive rights. DeSantis himself has overreached in this case, exercising dictatorial powers while making specious criticisms of Democratic views on policy matters.
Nerd narrative
There is a 30% chance that Ron DeSantis will become US President by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Job Growth Tops Forecast, Unemployment Falls to 3.5%
US employers added 528k workers to their payrolls in July, surpassing the forecasts of economists and dropping the unemployment rate to 3.5%.
The monthly job numbers exceeded the 258k job growth prediction by Dow Jones, with wage growth also rising by 0.5% for the month and 5.2% over the last year.
The Dept. of Labor stated that job growth in the US was "widespread" in July, with jobs added in industries including "leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care."
Narrative A
The stunning job growth numbers make it even tougher to determine whether the US is really slipping into a recession. Despite the slowing down of the post-pandemic boom, the strong job market is a good forward indicator for the US economy.
Narrative B
The labor market isn't the reason why the US has suffered from inflation, but it will be part of the reason why it will be difficult to escape. The continued gains in jobs and wages are fundamentally at odds with the central bank's goal of price and wage stability. Inflation continues to soar and the economy remains overheated.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the average US unemployment rate will be at least 4.96% between 2022 and 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israel Strikes Gaza, Kills Islamic Jihad Leader
On Fri., the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) struck alleged Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) targets in Gaza, reportedly killing at least ten people including a commander of the PIJ, and injuring another 55.
A Hamas-run health ministry said a 5-year-old girl was among the fatalities. The IDF stated that around a dozen militants were killed in the allegedly pre-emptively carried out Operation Breaking Dawn.
The PIJ confirmed that its northern Gaza commander since 2019, Taysir al-Jabari, was among those killed. According to an anonymous Israeli official, he was one of the targets, which also included weapons production facilities and PIJ positions.
Pro-Israel narrative
Operation Breaking Dawn was designed to neutralize concrete threats to the State of Israel and civilians. Israeli forces took the initiative to prevent attacks planned by terrorists who try to set their agenda in the Gaza Strip. The IDF has proved once again the country's commitment to combat terrorist organizations.
Pro-Palestine narrative
These strikes are part of Israel's illegal occupation plot to crack down on the Palestinian resistance and enable a brutal massacre. As Tel Aviv keeps escalating the violence in Gaza by launching attacks against civilians and restraining access to fuel, Palestinians have no alternative except to defend themselves.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that Israel and Palestine will hold peace talks in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Admin Declares Monkeypox a 'Public Health Emergency'
On Thurs. Pres. Biden's Health and Human Services Secretary, Xavier Becerra, declared the monkeypox virus outbreak a 'public health emergency'. The move paves the way for efforts to raise awareness and to provide additional federal funding and flexibility to combat the spread of the virus.
According to the CDC, monkeypox cases have been surging by more than a hundred per day over the last three weeks. As of Thurs. there are more than 6.6k confirmed infections – mainly reported among gay and bisexual men.
On Mon., Calif. joined Ill. and N.Y. in declaring a state of emergency for the monkeypox outbreak in their respective states.
Democratic narrative
The Biden administration is making a course correction as monkeypox figures increase. There's still a chance that we can contain this outbreak, and it all boils down to if the public health sector will be adequately funded and coordinated. The White House has acknowledged this and is adjusting to an epidemiological threat using well-established tools.
Republican narrative
First, we had COVID alarmism, and now there's monkeypox alarmism. Why would we conflate mitigation measures for these two diseases, as some "experts" have, even if they have very different modes of transmission? Let's be wary of those who talk about "raising the alarm" - there are hidden agendas here.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be 248K human infections of monkeypox worldwide before 2023, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.
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