US GDP's Early 2022 Dip Bigger Than Predicted
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said on Wed. that US real gross domestic product (GDP) declined at a 1.6% annual pace, a slightly higher rate than previously estimated during Q1. Earlier projections had forecast a contraction of 1.5%.
The drop in GDP was the first since Q2 of 2020, during the height of COVID. In Q4 of 2021 the economy saw a brief recovery and grew 6.9% from the prior quarter.
However, the US economy is now under pressure as the Federal Reserve raises rates to curb inflation that's running at a 40-year high - with officials placing much of the blame on the COVID pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Republican narrative
Biden's $1.9T American Rescue Plan was like pouring gasoline on the inflationary fire. Had it been optimally sized, we would have fewer problems and less inflation. When the Fed raises interest rates to cool down the economy, there's a risk that demand and investment go down, which could leave Biden with a painful recession on his hands.
Democratic narrative
It's a bizarre argument that the Biden administration's American Rescue Plan is to blame for the year high inflation rate. The US is in a better economic position than many other countries to overcome the current bout of inflation, which is being driven by global factors well beyond the control of the US president.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the highest real GDP growth in the US will be at least 5.99% by Q1 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China: Xi Visits Hong Kong for 25th Anniversary of Handover
Pres. Xi Jinping left mainland China on Thurs. - the first time since the COVID outbreak - to visit Hong Kong for the inauguration of its new leader, John Lee, and to attend celebrations of the 25th anniversary of Chinese rule.
The two-day visit - allegedly aimed at reaffirming China's authority over the island - includes an additional 30K police, blocked roads and no-fly zones.
Upon his arrival, the Chinese leader stressed the recovery "from the ashes" of Hong Kong, adding praises to the 'one country, two systems' policy.
Anti-China narrative
Though Beijing vowed to keep its hands out of Hong Kong affairs, those promises have been severely broken over the past years. From cracking down on protests to stifling the press, the CCP is bringing the full force of its authoritarian regime down on the island.
Pro-China narrative
The National Security Law doesn't violate the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which never referenced national security. The 'one nation, two systems' promise is still being upheld and Hong Kong is much freer than it's made out to be.
US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations in Doha End Without Breakthrough
Indirect talks between Iran and the US again stalled in Doha, Qatar on Wed., with little sign of a breakthrough in efforts to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Following the two-day, EU-brokered talks between Iran's chief negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani and US Pres. Joe Biden's special envoy Rob Malley, the US accused Tehran of raising issues "wholly unrelated" to the JCPOA.
Tehran, in turn, blamed Washington's "unrealistic and rigid approach" for the stalemate, but stressed that it was ready to continue the talks to reach a deal.
Republican narrative
Again, the Biden admin.'s negotiations with Tehran have imploded. This is yet another sign that the president's plan to placate Iran will likely fail, as the Islamic Republic continues to be intransigent.
Democratic narrative
Though this week's talks didn't lead to any progress, they aren't the end of negotiations. Iran and the US are both interested in striking a deal regarding Tehran's nuclear program, and with further talks, progress can likely be made.
Narrative C
The IRGC has become one of the region's most powerful and dangerous military organizations, training and arming terrorist proxies in places like Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Concessions are only going to embolden this radical organization and lead to further mayhem in the Middle East.
Narrative D
Any threat currently posed by Iran would be far worse should it obtain a nuclear weapon. Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 agreement only made that possibility more likely. These concessions are necessary in the interests of wider national security.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance that the US will rejoin the Iran nuclear deal before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 128 Roundup: At Least 19 Killed in Odesa; EU Flag Flown in Ukraine Parliament
Ukrainian officials have reported that at least 19 people, including two children, were killed, and more than 30 people injured, in Russian missile strikes on the coastal town of Serhiivka in the southern region of Odesa early on Friday.
Local officials said three Kh-22 missiles struck an apartment building and two recreation centers. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied allegations of targeting civilians, stating: "I would like to remind you of the president's words that the Russian armed forces do not work with civilian targets." It wasn't immediately clear whether military targets where hit in the attack.
Meanwhile, two more British citizens were reportedly charged with being "mercenaries" in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) on Friday. This comes as a British and Moroccan citizen sentenced to death last month have appealed their sentences, according to Russian news agency TASS.
Pro-establishment narrative
Ukrainians have fought not only for their own country, but also for all of Europe, reminding the alliance why it was founded in the first place. It's only right the EU is opening its doors to Ukraine.
Establishment-critical narrative
If Ukraine was to join the EU, it would only further complicate Ukraine's position with Russia and draw the world even nearer to a global conflict. Are we sure this is such a great idea?
Nerd narrative
There is a 2% chance that Ukraine will join the European Union before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Biden to Nominate Anti-Abortion Judge
US Pres. Biden reportedly intends to nominate anti-abortion attorney Chad Meredith to a federal judgeship in Kentucky, in what sources allege is part of a deal with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to not obstruct Biden's future federal nominations.
There aren't currently any federal judicial vacancies in Kentucky, and Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY) has said "it's clear that this is part of some larger deal on judicial nominations."
The alleged deal comes in the wake of SCOTUS' decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and Biden's promise to do everything in his power to protect abortion rights.
Democratic narrative
Not only has Biden agreed to appoint a judge with a record of stripping women of their rights to bodily autonomy, but he has also put his faith in McConnell, a man who has no credibility when it comes to keeping promises. This is a bad decision on all fronts.
Republican narrative
While another pro-life judicial appointment sounds nice, conservatives should be wary of this deal. It adds fuel to the pro-abortion fire on top of Republicans' recent anti-gun legislation, and will likely be a trade off between one pro-life judge in return for a slew of leftists.
New Zealand Classifies Proud Boys as Terrorists
Far-right US group, the Proud Boys, was declared a terrorist organization by New Zealand's government on Thurs., who cited its involvement with the Jan. 6 riots, violent messaging, and hypernational and chauvinistic ideology.
The group is one of 19 to have been given an official terrorist designation in the country. The status makes it illegal to fund, recruit, or participate in the groups in New Zealand, and allows authorities to take action against those who do.
Although there isn't yet any evidence that the group is active in New Zealand, since the death of 51 worshippers in a supremacist shooting at two Christchurch mosques in 2019, the island nation has been more attuned to far right threats.
Left narrative
New Zealand is right to designate the Proud Boys as a terror group. They've recently faced the consequences of white supremacist violence with the Christchurch mosque shootings, and their vigilance in identifying and labeling potential threats should be applauded. The group's coordinated violent attack on the US Capitol was an act of terrorism and warrants this designation.
Right narrative
There is no basis for designating the Proud Boys as a terrorist organization. Most chapters of the group are simply activists attending rallies and protests, and limiting the freedom of individuals to do these activities is an infringement of free speech. It is also an overtly politicized decision targeting the right-wing in the US.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that at least 25K deaths will occur as a result of terrorism in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
SCOTUS: Biden Can End 'Remain in Mexico' Policy
In a 5-4 vote on Thurs., SCOTUS ruled the Biden admin. can rescind a Trump-era program forcing certain asylum seekers to remain in Mexico while awaiting approval at the border.
The court's majority agreed with Chief Justice John Roberts that the termination of the Migration Protection Protocols doesn't represent a breach of 8 USC Section 1225 due to the discretionary nature of the statute's language.
It also stressed that interpreting the provision on returning migrants as mandatory would affect "the Executive's ability to conduct diplomatic relations with Mexico."
Republican narrative
While this appears to be a win for Biden, this SCOTUS decision makes his admin responsible for the migrant crisis. Dems. are celebrating now but it may cause them a big loss in the midterm elections as this crisis is likely to get worse now that the gates have been officially opened.
Democratic narrative
The "Remain in Mexico" policy put asylum-seekers in vulnerable conditions by forcing them to enter the country illegally. Now, these migrants will finally receive safe, humane treatment while the US upholds its long history of being a beacon of hope for those persecuted in their homelands.
DOJ To Investigate NYPD Special Victims Division
The DOJ this week launched an investigation of the NYPD Special Victims Division (SVD) over its handling of sexual assault cases and whether it engages in "a pattern or practice of gender-biased policing."
SVD, which is tasked with crimes involving rape, sexual abuse, and children, has been criticized for decades, including by women who said their reports of rapes and sexual assaults resulted in them being maligned and dismissed.
Ten months ago, more than a dozen women wrote a letter to the DOJ calling for an investigation of a division they alleged was made up of investigators who lacked sensitivity, skill and time to properly investigate their cases.
Establishment-critical narrative
For too long the NYPD has ignored systemic issues in SVD that have led to sex crime survivors being neglected and/or mistreated. This is a victory for the victims and, hopefully, the investigation will lead to accountability and drastic reform.
Pro-establishment narrative
The NYPD is well aware of past issues with SVD, and takes them very seriously. They've previously launched their own internal reviews, and the division has improved in recent years. Their pledge to fully cooperate with this latest investigation only further demonstrates the NYPD's commitment to strengthening their survivor-based philosophy.
SCOTUS to Review State Legislatures' Powers in Federal Elections
SCOTUS on Thurs. said it would hear a case regarding how federal elections are conducted by state legislatures, possibly giving them independent power free from review by state courts.
In Moore v. Harper, GOP lawmakers in N.C. claim that state courts violated their constitutional right to determine "the times, places and manner of congressional elections" when they struck down their district map.
The lawmakers are asking SCOTUS to endorse the "independent state legislature theory," which grants exclusive authority to set the rules for federal elections to state legislatures.
Democratic narrative
By taking this case, SCOTUS has opened up the possibility of allowing states to subvert national elections, which is exactly what Trump tried to do after he lost in 2020. Beyond the courts, if SCOTUS rules in favor of the N.C. legislators, state election agencies that are just doing their job could be overruled by legislatures whose majority party lost an election.
Pro-Trump narrative
After a session that featured triumphs related to abortion, gun rights and election integrity, the decision to hear this case is another victory for the republic. This was all made possible by former President Trump's appointments, which remade SCOTUS and the entire judiciary with originalist judges.
Nerd narrative
There is a 31% chance that any state will refuse to certify its election results during the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus Prediction community.
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