NATO Summit Begins In Madrid
NATO's 2022 Summit began on Tues., as leaders from more than 40 states - and NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg - arrived in Madrid during the day.
On its first day, member states reached a major breakthrough as Türkiye reportedly agreed to back the alliance's Nordic expansion after signing a joint memorandum with Finland and Sweden.
NATO leaders are expected to approve plans to enhance the alliance's readiness in Eastern Europe and to approve a new Strategic Concept, which may consider Russia as its main threat and, for the first time, makes reference to China.
Pro-establishment narrative
NATO must increase military spending and activate its resources to be prepared in case of an emergency. Moscow's aggression should be met with increased security measures as Russia has proved to be the biggest threat to the alliance.
Establishment-critical narrative
Indeed, the invasion of Ukraine is wrong, but an escalation of this conflict can only bring more instability and suffering to Europeans, who would be dragged into the war and forced to pay for it.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that total NATO defense spending will be at least 1.49M USD in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
EY Fined $100M Over Cheating on Ethics Exams
Top accounting firm Ernst & Young (EY) is being fined $100M for allowing employees to cheat on their ethics exams and withholding evidence, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced on Tuesday.
The federal regulator found that 49 employees were involved in sharing or being given answer keys for the CPA ethics exam between 2017 and 2021.
Many EY employees knew of the cheating but didn't report it, and even withheld evidence from the SEC's investigation, according to the agency.
Narrative A
The blatant fraud going on at "woke" firms is outrageous, and shouldn't have gotten to this point before being uncovered. Not only were a huge number of EY employees willing to cheat on exams, their colleagues and supervisors were aware and violated company policy by failing to report the wrongdoing. Clearly, superficial commitments to social justice and the denouncement of racism don't equate to the reliable upholding of legal and ethical standards.
Narrative B
It's promising to see the SEC take such a strong stance against financial corruption and unethical behavior. This is a record-breaking fine - double the previous largest fine of $50M KPMG had to pay in 2019 amid its own cheating scandal - and shows how seriously federal regulators now treat this type of behavior. It's reassuring that the SEC is digging into an industry-wide problem.
SCOTUS Sides With Doctors Convicted of Overprescribing Opioids
SCOTUS has ruled in favor of doctors in Xiulu Ruan v. US, concluding that prosecutors must prove doctors knew they were illegally overprescribing powerful pain drugs in violation of the Controlled Substances Act, in order to press criminal charges against them.
The dispute itself concerned pain management medical clinics run by doctor Xiulu Ruan in Alabama and doctor Shakeel Kahn in Arizona. Ruan was previously sentenced to 21 years in 2017 and Kahn to 25 years in 2019 - both were convicted under the Controlled Substances Act.
Kahn and Ruan disputed their prior convictions on the basis that jurors weren't required to consider whether they were acting in "good faith" and trying to provide medical care for their patients when they prescribed the opioids. The two cases were sent back to federal appeal courts that had previously upheld their convictions.
Narrative A
This is a blow to the DOJ's attempts to prosecute physicians and other illegal overprescribers as the US continues to be crippled by an opioid crisis. While the DOJ has sought to broaden the authority to charge, this decision will do the complete opposite, potentially expanding the opioid epidemic and any chances of the Federal government stopping it.
Narrative B
This win is significant for the defense not only of doctors innocently trying to improve the lives of their patients, but also general criminal liability surrounding negligence. It will help resist the threat of overcriminalization, and force the law to further take into account the contextual morality of prescribing opioids.
UN: More Than 300K Civilians Killed in Syria
The UN Human Rights Office on Tues. released a report that found that 306,887 civilians have been killed in Syria since March 2011, representing about 1.5% of the country's pre-war population.
The report, based on eight sources of information covering the first 10 years of the Syrian conflict between March 1, 2011 to March 31, 2021, doesn't include non-civilian casualties or civilians who died indirectly due to war-related factors.
Of the total death toll - which amounts to 83 civilians killed on average daily - 142,350 civilian casualties were documented individually, and an additional 163,537 were estimated based on statistical methods.
Pro-establishment narrative
It's Bashar al-Assad who started the brutal civil war in Syria. The Syrian regime and its Russian and Iranian allies, with their missiles, barrel bombs, and chemical weapons, are the ones overwhelmingly responsible for the countless civilians killed in Syria over the past 11 years. Syrians are well aware of this truth, and it's time for Damascus to be held accountable for its crimes against humanity.
Establishment-critical narrative
Though often referred to as a civil war, the conflict in Syria developed into a full-blown proxy war soon after the protests against the government began in 2011, with the US playing a disastrous role. The still-ongoing conflict, with its countless innocent victims, is largely a consequence of US meddling, as they aim to bring about regime change in Syria as part of their remaking of the Middle East.
SCOTUS: Louisiana Allowed to Use Republican-Drawn Map
SCOTUS on Tues. ruled 6-3 granting an application from the Louisiana GOP to block a district court ruling that ordered the state to issue a second majority-Black congressional district.
The ruling is another setback for civil rights activists and Democrats who argue the redistricting process often disadvantages growing minority communities.
The Republican-majority legislature overruled Gov. Edwards' veto of the map which led to the district court's ruling. Louisiana - which is one-third black - will, for now, only have one of its six districts be majority-Black for the coming fall elections.
Republican narrative
Democrats complain about gerrymandering as if it's something only Republicans do but, as we've seen in states like New York and Oregon, they implement the same district-map-drawing schemes when they have the majority. Gerrymandering has occurred from both sides since the nation's founding, and Louisiana has the same right to draw maps the way they want as New York and Oregon do.
Democratic narrative
Democrats have certainly been the party calling for an end to the GOP's unethical, racially-based gerrymandering for at least a decade. That being said, without a clear and likely national resolution to the problem soon, the Democrats should continue drawing up districts to benefit themselves as much as possible or they'll risk losing the legislature in this year's midterms.
Cynical narrative
Both Democrats and Republicans gerrymander massively, making American democracy far from fair. Election laws should change.
Nerd narrative
There is a 74% chance that Republicans will win both the House and Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 126 Roundup: G7 Pledges to Rebuild Ukraine; Kremlin Calls NATO Expansion "Destabilizing"
The G7 summit continued on Wed., with leaders reemphasizing their condemnation of the Russia-Ukraine war and pledging continued support for the reconstruction of Ukraine's infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Russia has reacted to the news of NATO's expansion deal with Sweden and Finland, calling it a "purely destabilizing factor." Earlier in the week, NATO announced it will increase the size of its rapid response force from roughly 40K to 300K personnel.
This comes as the UK's defense ministry on Wed. said there is a real possibility that the Russian missile that allegedly struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk on Mon. was aimed at a nearby target. Russia denies striking the mall, instead claiming they targeted a nearby weapons depot, which sparked a fire that spread to the mall.
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that there will be at least 10.1M internally displaced Ukrainians by the end of 2022 (based on a UN estimation), according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Colombia Truth Commission: 450K Killed in Civil War
On Tues., the Colombian government-appointed truth commission released its report on the country's civil war that lasted more than a half-century. The internal conflict cost billions to American taxpayers and allegedly killed at least 450K people.
The non-binding report gives a fiery review of Colombia's joint war on drugs with the US, deeming it "ineffective in preventing consumption" and claiming it prolonged the conflict. It has also called for an overhaul in the Colombian defense forces and anti-drug policies.
The commission was established in 2016 as part of the peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). It collected information from over 14K interviews with victims, fighters, and public servants involved in the violent conflict.
Narrative A
This report is crucial to the Colombian peace process as it gives a neutral analysis of the conflict. It will bring justice to the victims of the war while providing recommendations to build sustainable peace in the nation.
Narrative B
This is a biased report that failed to analyze the guerrillas' responsibilities and their relations with foreign powers. The so-called truth commission made this clear by taking political advantage of its position to support Petro's election.
Scottish Leader Calls For Independence Vote
On Tues., the leader of the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP), Nicola Sturgeon, announced plans for a second referendum on an independent Scotland.
The vote will reportedly echo the wording of the 2014 referendum question, "Should Scotland be an independent country?," and according to the nation's First Minister, will take place on Oct. 19, 2023.
It's unclear whether the direct referendum will be supported by the Westminster government.
Pro-establishment narrative
The SNP are sowing discord and division for their own political gain. It would be absurd to have an independence referendum every time the SNP won an election - unionists must stand firm against the insubstantial case for another expensive and unnecessary vote.
Establishment-critical narrative
Sturgeon has been forced to gamble by a PM who refuses to back her or recognize the strength of support for Scottish nationalism. Either way, this is a win-win for the SNP who will either receive another, post-Brexit independence vote, or boost their political cause by demonstrating that Westminster doesn't support Scottish sovereignty.
Narrative C
These arguments aren't about referendums, but political engagement. The Scottish have greater faith and belief in their sovereignty than UK ministers for Westminster, which is likely to play in Sturgeon's favor. However, popular support alone will not answer key questions about the financial viability or constitutional authority when it comes to an independent Scotland.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that Scotland will cease to be a part of the United Kingdom by Jan. 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Colombia: Prison Fire Kills At Least 51
On Tues., prison officials announced that at least 51 people were killed and 26 injured in a prison fire in the southwestern City of Tulua, Colombia
Sources in Colombia's National Penitentiary Institute (INPEC) said that a fight between inmates escalated into a riot where inmates began setting fire to mattresses.
It wasn't immediately clear if all of the deceased were prisoners or if some of the prisoners were able to escape.
Narrative A
This isn't the first fatal incident to occur in one of Colombia's overcrowded prisons and shows how much the country needs prison reform. Colombia has historically treated incarceration as a form of revenge, and President-elect Gustavo Petro must re-shape the prison system into one of rehabilitation.
Narrative B
The deaths that occurred as a result of this fire are no doubt tragic, and Colombia's prisons certainly need reform. However, to achieve this Colombia must recognize that, although prisons may have their own internal ecosystems and rules, they are inextricably linked to outside problems - such as drug trafficking. These exterior problems must be addressed first.
EU Agrees to Cut Greenhouse Emissions
On Wed., after 16 hours of negotiations, EU member states reached an agreement on proposed laws to combat climate change and its impacts. The agreements will be further refined in later negotiations with the EU Parliament before becoming official.
The environmental ministers of the 27 member states agreed on five laws that will eliminate emissions from new fossil fuel burning cars by 2035 and will provide €59B to a fund to protect disadvantaged and impoverished residents from CO2 costs. They also agreed to cut greenhouse emissions by 55% by 2030, revising a 1990 previous agreement of 40%.
Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland opposed the final agreement on the grounds that a larger fund is needed to assist low-income communities from the costs associated with these policies, including an increase in utility bills.
Establishment-critical narrative
These agreements are just words with no real action. The 2030 target is arbitrary and will not be final until negotiations have concluded with the European Parliament later this year - and often energy efficiency is the first goal to be tossed. This sets a target but nothing is legally binding. European nations must step up, otherwise, this announcement is meaningless.
Pro-establishment narrative
The EU is strongly committed to combating the effects of climate change, as shown by its support for UN programs and vigorous backing of the Paris Agreement. The member states' collaboration was successful in cutting emissions by 31% in 2020. This is a bold track record, and these proposed laws show that the EU is serious about leading the world in climate policy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 23% chance that there will be 3.6°C of global warming by 2100 according to the Metaculus prediction community.
3 Dem-Backed Candidates Defeated in Colorado GOP Primaries
Three GOP candidates in Colorado, backed by funding from Democratic campaign groups, were defeated in Tuesday's primaries.
Rep. Ron Hanks lost his primary for a US Senate seat to Joe O'Dea, Tina Peters lost her bid for Colorado secretary of state to Pam Anderson, and Greg Lopez lost to Heidi Ganahl.
All three of the candidates have supported the 2020 election fraud theories and Peters was previously indicted on election-tampering-related felonies
Republican narrative
A red wave this fall is very likely, which is why Democrats are terrified of moderate Republicans running against their incumbents. They're so scared, in fact, that they are funding GOP candidates they believe would be easier to beat in the fall midterms. The Democrats are on the ropes right now, and they know it.
Democratic narrative
Despite what the "professional" pollsters say, the Democrats could absolutely win back a Senate majority and even pick up more House seats in November. With Roe v. Wade overturned and the GOP as arrogant as ever, Democrats will likely turn out in droves, and turnout is what wins elections.
Nerd narrative
There is a 74% chance that Republicans will win both the House and Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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