Giuliani Cancels Jan. 6 Committee Meeting

Last week, Rudy Giuliani, Trump's ex-personal attorney, canceled his meeting with the House Jan. 6 committee after months of negotiations, because his request to record the proceedings was rejected.
Giuliani was subpoenaed because of his alleged role in trying to convince state legislators to overturn the 2020 election results, as well as his alleged contact with Trump and Congress concerning strategies for delaying or overturning the results.
Giuliani allegedly wanted to record the interview to make sure he wouldn't get caught committing perjury in any potential subsequent investigations.
Democratic narrative
Giuliani is a media hound and his last-minute decision to renege on his agreement is likely another grab for attention. The committee might want to consider letting him turn the cameras on, though, considering how valuable his testimony could be and his propensity for revealing too much.
Pro-Trump narrative
Those subpoenaed to speak before the Jan. 6 Committee are well within their rights to skip it. Trying to criminalize dissent in the US is merely political theater.
Belarus Sentences Activist Sofia Sapega to 6 Years in Jail

Sofia Sapega, a Russian law student and girlfriend of Belarusian dissident Raman Pratasevich, was sentenced on Fri. by a Belarusian closed-door court to six years in prison for inciting social hatred and illegally disseminating private information.
Pratesevich was editor of the opposition NEXTA channel on Telegram, a key factor in organizing protests in Belarus against Pres. Lukashenko after the election in Aug. 2020.
Sapega and Protasevich were traveling from Athens, Greece to Vilnius, Lithuania on a Ryanair plane in May 2021 when the flight was forcibly diverted to Minsk after an anonymous tip-off that there was a bomb on board.
Pro-establishment narrative
This is a clear sign of a dictatorship at work and the trial was a sham. Sofia Sapega has become collateral damage of Lukashenko's attack on her boyfriend Protasevich and the dictator's attempts to maintain control of the opposition. Political prisoners face ill-treatment in Belarus - Sapega must be released immediately.
Narrative B
Sapega was arrested for and charged with legitimate crimes, and will have to face the consequences. Nevertheless, Russia - which has strong political ties with Belarus - has provided her with all necessary assistance from the moment of her arrest, and will continue to protect her interests through diplomatic and other channels. So far she has been held in good condition and has no complaints about her health or detention conditions.
UK Introduces New Digital Watchdog to Enforce Tougher Rules on Big Tech

The UK outlined on Fri. the scope of powers assigned to its Digital Markets Unit, a new regulator set up last year to control the influence of big tech companies like Google and Facebook.
The digital watchdog will enforce rules aimed at giving consumers more choices online and protecting small businesses. Tech companies that don't comply will face fines of up to 10% of their annual global revenue.
Under the new rules, it will be easier to switch between devices and social media accounts without losing data. Smartphone users would also get more choice of search engines on their devices and more control over how their data is used.
Narrative A
This is a milestone for online market regulation and it's promising to see the UK empowering the watchdog to implement the new rules. It comes at a time when many countries, especially in Europe, are trying to figure out the best ways to control the potentially damaging influence of big tech on consumers and small businesses. The UK is leading the way with action.
Narrative B
The Digital Markets Unit is a nice idea but the UK government is implementing it all wrong. One of the argued benefits of Brexit is the ability to be more agile with regulatory implementation - so why, then, is the UK dragging its feet on this? Without the proper legislation, the watchdog will only be able to watch, lacking the power to reshape digital markets.
Keir Starmer Vows to Resign if Fined Over "Beergate"

Keir Starmer has said he will resign as leader of the Labour Party if he's fined by authorities over claims that he broke lockdown rules.
A day after the local elections, Durham police force launched an investigation into allegations that he broke COVID rules in Apr. 2021.
Video footage emerged of Starmer drinking a bottle of beer at the offices of Durham MP Mary Foy in the period before last year's local elections.
Right narrative
Starmer is a hypocrite and an opportunist. If he's found to have broken the law by attending the event with as many as 30 others, he will be forced to resign. These developments are a clear blow to the Labour party.
Left narrative
The timing of these allegations reflects the deceitful opportunism that characterizes Conservative Party politics. This story first emerged earlier this year, yet only gained traction when it was electorally convenient for the Tories. There's no equivalence between this event and Johnson's outrageous rule violations.
Cynical narrative
Brits are stuck for who to vote for, as the revelations that Labour leaders also attended events during lockdown make it clear that all politicians are as bad as each other. Voters have been reduced to picking the best of a bad bunch.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance Keir Starmer will cease to be the leader of the Labour Party by Oct 28, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Beijing Loyalist John Lee Elected As Hong Kong's Next Leader

John Lee, Hong Kong's former chief secretary, was chosen as the city's next leader on Sun., after receiving 1,416 votes of support from the ~1.5k-member election committee. Eight voted against him.
The selection process has become tightly controlled by Beijing after electoral revisions were implemented in 2021, with the election committee largely made up of politicians and business executives considered "patriots" loyal to China.
The city received international attention in 2019 for its months-long street protests. A year later, Beijing imposed controversial national security legislation, barring secession, subversion, and collusion with foreign forces.
Anti-China narrative
Lee isn't fit to solve Hong Kong's social issues or revive its status as a global financial hub. He was favored because of his background in security and policing, as pro-Beijing politicians are paranoid about subversive activities that seek to halt the "mainlandization" of the city.
Pro-China narrative
The landslide victory of Lee proves that the people of Hong Kong support patriots ruling the territory, despite decades-long Western ambitions to undermine Chinese sovereignty. He's the right choice to ensure that order prevails and stability and unity are promoted.
Northern Ireland Assembly Election: Sinn Féin Wins Historic Vote

Sinn Féin, the most prominent Irish nationalist party in Northern Ireland (NI), won 27 seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly on Sat., making it the largest party in the Stormont.
Thursday's elections saw Sinn Féin become the first nationalist party to secure the largest share of the 90-seat assembly, while the non-sectarian and centrist Alliance party also saw a surge of support, securing 17 seats.
Under a 1998 agreement that ended decades of armed conflict between pro-UK union and Irish nationalist paramilitaries, the positions of first minister and deputy first minister in NI are split between the largest unionist party and nationalist party.
Narrative A
Sinn Féin's victory takes NI one step closer to leaving the UK and reunifying with the Republic of Ireland. Though support for a united Ireland is still unclear, with only 37% of the population fully supporting it, the momentum is growing, and a referendum could be in sight.
Narrative B
Sinn Féin's victory doesn't mean that a united Ireland is on the horizon. The party was once the political appendage of the terrorist IRA, which wrought 30 years of havoc and misery, and its victory is certainly not good for the union. However, its overall support has only increased by around 1%. The true unionist majority has been obfuscated by the Single Transferable Vote system.
Narrative C
This election was a massive victory and important milestone for the Alliance party, whose success reflects a growing dissatisfaction with NI's traditional parties. The sectarian political rivalries that dominated the country's creation (and its politics since) have only hurt the Northern Irish people, and Alliance's gains indicate that voters want to move toward a more inclusive future.
North Korea Tests Suspected Submarine-Launched Missile

On Sat., North Korea tested a short-range ballistic missile that is suspected to have been launched by a submarine. It was the nation's 15th missile test this year, and second last week.
The missile was launched from waters near the coastal city of Sinpo and flew 372 miles, according to the South Korean military.
This was North Korea's first launch of an SLBM since Oct. 2021, and came just three days before the inauguration of South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol.
Pro-establishment narrative
North Korea's actions pose a severe threat to the stability of the Korean peninsula and the security of the rest of the world. The US has so far failed to negotiate an end to nuclear weapons in exchange for humanitarian aid - it's time for some new ideas about how to resolve this threat.
Establishment-critical narrative
Though Kim may seem like a madman, he's simply using the only leverage he has in dealing with South Korea and the US. His nuclear ambitions are designed to seek political gains and sanctions relief, after successive American administrations derailed diplomatic routes to denuclearization.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that there will be more than 9800 nuclear weapons globally in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Afghanistan: Taliban Order Head-to-Toe Covering of Women

Afghanistan's Taliban leadership announced on Sat. that all Afghan women must wear head-to-toe clothing in public, evoking similar restrictions on women during the Taliban's previous rule between 1996 and 2001.
The decree names the chadori - a head-to-toe burqa - as the government's preferred form of women's attire, and further adds that, unless attending to important work, it's better for women to stay inside their homes
Refusal to comply with the order could potentially result in a male guardian being imprisoned for three days.
Republican narrative
The current attacks on women's rights in Afghanistan are a direct result of the Biden administration's decision to withdraw from the country. His administration may pontificate about women's rights, but it has no way of enforcing them without troops on the ground.
Democratic narrative
While US involvement in Afghanistan saw significant gains for women's rights, the fact that Afghan security forces collapsed so quickly following its withdrawal indicates that the yields weren't sustainable without indefinite US presence, which itself wasn't sustainable or realistic.
Roe v. Wade: Protestors Rally at Catholic Churches, Houses of SCOTUS Justices

Activists expecting SCOTUS to overturn the landmark abortion ruling of Roe v. Wade held a series of rallies at Catholic churches as the US celebrated Mother's Day on Sunday.
Demonstrators also held protests outside the homes of SCOTUS justices on Sat., reportedly chanting "My body, my choice," outside J. Brett Kavanaugh's home in Maryland before moving onto the nearby house of Chief Justice John Roberts.
The addresses of SCOTUS justices were shared online and they reportedly received an increased number of threats after Politico published an initial draft of a majority opinion on May 2.
Left narrative
If Roe v. Wade is overturned, it will be catastrophic for women. Particularly for young women, poor women, and women of color, who will not have the time, resources, or ability to travel out of state for safe abortions.
Right narrative
SCOTUS justices have rightly indicated that abortion is not a federal issue and should be decided by states. Left-wing extremists are trying to bully the court into reversing its decision.
Nerd narrative
There's a 92% chance Roe v. Wade will be overturned before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 75 Roundup: Putin Marks 'Victory Day' With No Escalation; War Rages On

Flanked by soldiers and veterans, Russian Pres. Putin commemorated 'Victory Day' in Moscow's Red Square on Mon. – marking the Allied Forces' defeat of the Nazis in WWII.
Analysts had suggested Putin would use the occasion to call for a wider Russian mobilization or declare a strategic victory, but he didn't. He did, however, defend launching the war, stating: "Russia has given a pre-emptive response to aggression. It was a forced, timely and the only correct decision."
Pres. Zelenskyy also commemorated the 77th anniversary of the defeat of the Nazis, promising that Ukraine will soon have a new victory and will celebrate "two Victory Days."
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking their promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 95% chance that Mariupol will be under Russian control by June 1, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Esper Details Trump's Past Eagerness to Use Military

In an interview on 60 Minutes - and in a new book - former US Sec. of Defense Mark Esper has alleged that, while president, Trump suggested firing missiles into Mexico to attack drug cartels, among other uses of the US military.
Esper, who served from 2019-2020, said he recalled several private discussions with Trump about how it would violate international law.
Among Esper's other claims were that Trump wanted to deploy 10k troops to shoot protesters "in the legs or something" during simmering civil tensions in June 2020.
Democratic narrative
Esper's allegations are shocking and shed light on how disturbingly authoritarian Trump wanted to steer the US. Not surprisingly, Trump has lashed out at Esper, who joins a growing list of his former confidents who now are targets of his ire. Esper is part of a growing exodus from Team Trump, eager to let the public know that he's unsuited for national leadership.
Pro-Trump narrative
Esper is just the latest former Trump official trying to cash in on supposed salacious stories about the former president. But all he does with his anecdotes is show how bad his instincts were and how right Trump was at every turn.
Cynical narrative
If Esper had dignity and a sense of public service he would've resigned in protest before Trump fired him in 2020, and he would've told the public these stories sooner rather than saving them for his book. With the firehose of similar stories that have come out during and since the Trump presidency, these stories won't move the needle at all now or come 2024.
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