Controversy

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Will the US and Iran Establish a Lasting Ceasefire Before 2027?

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Claims

Last Updated 47 minutes ago

Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar"We may be entering a new era of protracted conflict—with Iran at the center of it."Jun 10, 2026

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Nate Swanson“The most likely negotiation outcome is an ambiguous version of the cease-fire continuing indefinitely, which, while unseemly, is better than the alternative,”Apr 08, 2026

Atlantic Council

Catherine Ashton"Any deal will be at best fragile, or at worst impossible."Aug 12, 2026

Chathamhouse

Polymarket"There is a 99% chance that U.S. x Iran will reach a permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026."Jun 18, 2026

Polymarket

Matthew Kroenig"I suspect it will hold because both sides have a strong economic incentive to get energy flowing to global markets."Jun 15, 2026

Atlantic Council

Amr Hamzawy"Achieving this [conflict settlement] objective will be a time-consuming process, so the region may endure a prolonged period of insecurity and instability."Apr 09, 2026

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Neil Quilliam“It’s just a big Band-Aid and future conflict is like to come at some point.”Jun 16, 2026

Guardian

Suzanne Maloney"The likelihood of them relinquishing that activity permanently or appearing to have made major concessions at a point at which they actually think that they are in a stronger position than the United States is unlikely."Apr 27, 2026

Brookings

Eric Lob"Tehran probably perceives the ceasefire as a pause in hostilities rather than anything permanent, and it is preparing for renewed conflict accordingly."Apr 09, 2026

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Jessica Genauer"I think that this probably will lead to a cessation of hostilities, but it's unlikely to lead to a full agreement that really satisfies everything that on the one hand, the Trump administration would like and on the other hand that the Iranian regime would like, because I think that the two sides just still sit too far apart."Aug 13, 2026

Reutersconnect

Laura James"A lasting settlement remains unlikely because Iran wants continued leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and cannot accept an outcome portrayed as a U.S. victory. "Jul 27, 2026

CNBC

Victoria J. Taylor"There is a possibility that this ceasefire could pave the way for a more permanent deal, but it is more likely this will be a temporary and fragile understanding that will, in the best-case scenario, prevent renewed war through the end of this administration."Jun 15, 2026

Atlantic Council

Sanam Vakil"A comprehensive settlement is unlikely to emerge quickly."Aug 12, 2026

Chathamhouse

Pratibha Thaker“But, and this is a big but, it is a very fragile arrangement. The ceasefire hinges on Iran suspending its military activity [and] fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping."Apr 01, 2026

CNBC

CSIS"President Trump would need to expend significant political capital to pressure Prime Minister Netanyahu to end military operations in Lebanon, with uncertain prospects for success."Feb 15, 2026

Csis

BMI“Diplomatic progress is likely to be punctuated by periodic military flare-ups, while miscalculation by either side could trigger a renewed escalation.”Aug 03, 2026

CNBC