Will the US Federal Reserve Deliver 3 Rate Cuts in 2026?

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JPMorgan"J.P. Morgan Global Research expects the Fed to remain on hold through 2026, keeping the funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75%."Jan 26, 2026

J.P. Morgan Global Research

"[We are] expecting two rate cuts in 2026, one in the first half and another in the second."Jan 09, 2026

Morning Star

David Doyle"Our view is that the data will guide them toward not cutting."Jan 06, 2026

Morning Star

UBS Global Wealth Management"We expect one 25bp reduction in the first quarter of 2026, consistent with the median forecast from top Fed officials in the dot plot for one cut this year."Jan 22, 2026

Ubs

Capital Economics“With core inflation remaining above the 2% target for some considerable time, we think the Fed will cut its policy rate by only 25 [basis points] in 2026, putting the new Fed chair and President Trump at loggerheads almost immediately.”Dec 22, 2025

Fortune

George Bory"[I] wouldn’t be surprised to see the Fed leave rates steady until the new chair takes over in the spring."Jan 06, 2026

Morning Star

Eric S. Rosengren"It's still not a slam dunk, even with a new Fed Chair, that rates actually decline," he added, "particularly if the administration's jawboning and potential legal challenges raise concerns about Federal Reserve independence and some of the voting members want to be sure that the economic conditions justify a move."Jan 15, 2026

Investopedia

iShares"We believe the most likely path is for the Fed to pause early in the year. Once a new Chair is in seat, then the Fed may seek to cut interest rates one or two times to bring overnight rates closer to the 3% to 3.25% range."Jan 22, 2026

BlackRock

Bank of America"Our forecast of additional cuts next year is due to the change in leadership, not our read on the economy."Jan 23, 2026

Reuters

Sarah Hansen"Altogether in 2026, the bond market is expecting 50 more basis points of easing, or two 25-point cuts."Jan 06, 2026

Morning Star

Jerome Powell"The Fed funds rate is now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value, and we are well-positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves."Dec 11, 2025

FOX News

Goldman Sachs"The Fed will deliver rate cuts of 25 basis points each in June and September and that the fed funds rate will finish this cycle at 3%-3.25%."Jan 15, 2026

Goldman Sachs

Morgan Stanley"Morgan Stanley now expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in January, April and June 2026, bringing the policy rate down to 3% to 3.25%."Jan 22, 2026

Reuters

Goldman Sachs“If the labour market stabilises as we expect, the Federal Open Market Committee will likely shift from risk-management mode to normalisation mode.”Jan 12, 2026