Controversy

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Will The Reserve Bank of India Raise its Repo Rate Above 5.25% by June 30, 2027?

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Last Updated 2 hours ago

Piramal Group"In our view, the first policy rate hike could materialize by February 2027, marking the beginning of a formal rate-tightening cycle and eventually leading to higher borrowing costs even for EBLR-linked retail loans."Jul 23, 2026

Fintechbiznews

IMC Journal"The RBI could hike repo rate by 50-100 bps in FY2027, beginning from October after assessing the second order passthrough on core inflation which for now remains comfortable."Jul 23, 2026

Imcnet

Elara Capital"We are building in the first-rate hike in October 2026 and see a total of 50 bps hike this financial year."Jul 23, 2026

Business-Standard

Union Bank of India"We expect a prolonged pause on repo rate, at least till mid-2027."Feb 11, 2026

Informist Media

HSBC"With twin energy and El Niño shocks, we [HSBC] forecast FY27 inflation at 5.6%, GDP at 6%, and two rate hikes over 4Q26 and 1Q27, taking the repo rate to 5.75%."May 14, 2026

OECD“A temporary increase in the policy rate of around 25 basis points is projected by the end of the first quarter of FY2026–27.”Jun 15, 2026

Oecd

Barclays"We continue to see RBI MPC on hold in 2026 and expect a 50bp hike in CY2027. Today's policy tone was truly neutral."Jun 09, 2026

Moneycontrol

Deutsche Bank"If growth momentum slips sharply, then the RBI could consider cutting rates by another 25bps in 2026. We expect the RBI to start rate hikes from Q2 2027, taking the repo rate back to 6.25% by H1 2028."Jul 23, 2026

Flow

HDFC Bank“Any turn in the cycle, a rate hike, is likely not before the middle of FY28.”Feb 11, 2026

Informist Media

Kotak Mahindra Bank"We expect 50 bps of rate hike beginning in October."Jun 05, 2026

BW Retail World

OCBC Bank"We expect a cumulative 50bp in hikes in FY27."Jul 23, 2026

Ocbc

Reuters"Most [economists] see rates on hold at least until mid-2027, a view largely unchanged from a February survey, before the war began."Jul 23, 2026

Reuters

Goldman Sachs"The bank [Goldman Sachs] forecasts two consecutive 25-basis-point increases in October and December policy meetings, bringing the policy rate to 5.75%."Jul 14, 2026

BrokerChooser

Fitch Ratings"We still forecast the repo rate to remain unchanged until the end of FY2026/27."Jun 02, 2026

Fitch Solutions

CNBC"The majority of economists polled by CNBC expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep rates unchanged at 5.25% while signaling a rate hike may only occur towards the end of the year [2026]."Jun 04, 2026