Claims
ReconMR Texas Poll"In the race for US Senate, State Rep. James Talarico, the Democrat, now leads Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican, by four points, 47-43%."Aug 15, 2026
Polymarket"There's a 51% chance that James Talarico will win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election."Aug 24, 2026
USA Today"Earlier in the week, on Aug. 18, Fox News' "America's Newsroom" moved its label of the Texas Senate race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up.""Aug 21, 2026
Kalshi"There's a 60% chance that James Talarico will be the Texas Senate Election winner."Aug 24, 2026
Nate Silver"Still viewed Talarico's campaign as one of his top picks to flip blue, rating it as a 63% chance of pickup."Aug 11, 2026
Texas Southern University"In the Texas U.S. Senate election, Democrat James Talarico (47%) leads Republican Ken Paxton (45%) by 2 percentage points, with 2% supporting Libertarian Ted Brown and 6% undecided."Aug 24, 2026
Alex Patton"Paxton is such a flawed candidate; Talarico is an exceptionally good candidate. We are about to find out if candidate quality can overcome Texas' GOP structural advantages."Sep 01, 2026
Richard Murray“If the border swings back Democratic, Paxton cannot win statewide with that big a deficit in the Texas Triangle.”May 31, 2026
Race to The White House"Race to the WH gives Democrats a 65.7% chance of winning the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election."Aug 24, 2026
Call the Map"Call the Map forecasts James Talarico to win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election with 50.4% of the vote to Ken Paxton’s 47.7%, a projected Democratic margin of D+2.7."Aug 24, 2026
The Argument"Our Split Ticket 2026 midterms model thinks that the race is a toss-up — and gives Democrats a 59% chance of winning the Senate seat in November."Aug 27, 2026
Polymarket"There's a 62% chance that James Talarico will be the Texas Senate Election winner."Aug 24, 2026
Manifold"There is a 58% chance that the Democrats will win the 2026 Texas Senate Election."Oct 20, 2026
VoteHub"For the first time this year, James Talarico is favored over Ken Paxton in VoteHub’s Texas U.S. Senate forecast."Aug 07, 2026
Houston Public Media"This marks the third consecutive poll that shows Talarico leading Paxton in his bid to become the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Texas in more than three decades."Aug 04, 2026
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 8.0.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 8.0.0