Claims
Moody's Analytics"It [Moody’s] forecasts real GDP growth at 4.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027, giving policymakers enough space to address structural challenges."Jun 04, 2026
OECD"Economic growth will remain unchanged from 2024 at 5% in 2025 and weaken to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027."Jun 04, 2026
World Bank"According to the World Bank’s latest China Economic Update, Advancing Reforms, Enhancing Prospects, growth is estimated at 4.9% in 2025 and projected at 4.4% in 2026, as existing headwinds are expected to persist."Dec 10, 2025
Reuters"Growth is expected to slow to 4.7% in the second quarter, dragging the full-year expansion to 4.6% in 2026 from last year’s 5.0%, according to the median forecast in the poll, broadly in line with the official target of 4.5%–5.0%."Jun 04, 2026
UBS Global Wealth Management"We expect China's GDP growth to slow to 4.0% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, with the assumption that the US hikes tariffs on China’s exports starting in September 2025 and China would increase policy support in response."Jun 04, 2026
Polymarket"There is a 78% chance that China's annual GDP growth will be 4.0%-5.0% in 2026."Jun 04, 2026
China Briefing"Data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on April 16 show a 5% year-on-year expansion in the first quarter, reversing the downward trend recorded in the latter half of 2025."Apr 17, 2026
Societe Generale"With the 2026 growth target set at 4.5–5%, a strong first-quarter print should give policymakers room to hold off major stimulus at the late-April Politburo meeting despite Middle East-related energy risks."Jun 04, 2026
Morgan Stanley"China’s real GDP is forecast to expand 5% in 2026, helped by front-loaded government policy support, followed by 4.5% in 2027 as the effect of fiscal stimulus wanes."Jun 04, 2026
ADB"Economic growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is projected to moderate to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027."Apr 10, 2026
Kalshi"There is an 84% chance that China's annual GDP growth will be above 4.2% in 2026."Jun 04, 2026
IMF"The economy expanded by 5 percent in 2025, and we project 4.5 percent growth this year, up 0.3 percentage points from our October forecast."Jun 04, 2026
Goldman Sachs"Our economists recently cut their 2025 and 2026 real GDP growth forecasts by 0.5 percentage points each, to 4% and 3.5% respectively."May 06, 2025
Li Xunlei“Expanding domestic demand will be a key path for achieving a GDP growth target of around 5% in 2026.”Jan 07, 2026
