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Will Chinese Economic Growth Fall Below 4% GDP in 2026?

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Last Updated 1 week ago

S&P Global"We forecast 4.3% real GDP growth in 2026 and 2027."Oct 12, 2026

Spglobal

Moody's Analytics"It [Moody’s] forecasts real GDP growth at 4.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027, giving policymakers enough space to address structural challenges."Jun 04, 2026

Wall Street Journal

OECD"Economic growth will remain unchanged from 2024 at 5% in 2025 and weaken to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027."Jun 04, 2026

Oecd

"According to the World Bank’s latest China Economic Update, Advancing Reforms, Enhancing Prospects, growth is estimated at 4.9% in 2025 and projected at 4.4% in 2026, as existing headwinds are expected to persist."Dec 10, 2025

World Bank

Reuters"Growth is expected to slow to 4.7% in the second quarter, dragging the full-year expansion to 4.6% in 2026 from last year’s 5.0%, according to the median forecast in the poll, broadly in line with the official target of 4.5%–5.0%."Jun 04, 2026

Reuters

UBS Global Wealth Management"We expect China's GDP growth to slow to 4.0% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, with the assumption that the US hikes tariffs on China’s exports starting in September 2025 and China would increase policy support in response."Jun 04, 2026

Ubs

NIESR"We project China’s GDP to grow by 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027."Jul 14, 2026

NIESR

ING Think"We are looking for a slight slowdown in Chinese growth to around 4.6% year-on-year in 2026, which, in our interpretation, qualifies as another year of stable growth."Dec 03, 2025

ING THINK

Deutsche Bank"China's GDP growth is forecast at 4.5% in 2026, down from 5.0% in 2025, according to Deutsche Bank and Bloomberg data."Oct 12, 2026

Wealth

Li Xunlei“Expanding domestic demand will be a key path for achieving a GDP growth target of around 5% in 2026.”Jan 07, 2026

Chinabankingnews

BBVA Research"The GDP growth forecast is maintained at 4.5% for 2026 and 4.2% for 2027, and the CPI forecast is lowered to 0.8%."Sep 29, 2026

BBVA Research

Morgan Stanley"China’s real GDP is forecast to expand 5% in 2026, helped by front-loaded government policy support, followed by 4.5% in 2027 as the effect of fiscal stimulus wanes."Jun 04, 2026

Morgan Stanley

ADB"Economic growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is projected to moderate to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027."Apr 10, 2026

Asian Development Bank

Kalshi"There is an 84% chance that China's annual GDP growth will be above 4.2% in 2026."Jun 04, 2026

Kalshi

IMF"The economy expanded by 5 percent in 2025, and we project 4.5 percent growth this year, up 0.3 percentage points from our October forecast."Jun 04, 2026

Imf

Goldman Sachs"Our economists recently cut their 2025 and 2026 real GDP growth forecasts by 0.5 percentage points each, to 4% and 3.5% respectively."May 06, 2025

Goldman Sachs

Barclays"A more realistic gross domestic product target of around 4.5-5% in 2026 appears likely, with policy focused on stabilising momentum without fiscal largesse."Oct 12, 2026

Barclays Private Bank

Bank of America"Now expecting 4.7% growth in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027."Dec 15, 2025

Bank of America

Polymarket"There is a 78% chance that China's annual GDP growth will be 4.0%-5.0% in 2026."Jun 04, 2026

Polymarket

China Briefing"Data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on April 16 show a 5% year-on-year expansion in the first quarter, reversing the downward trend recorded in the latter half of 2025."Apr 17, 2026

China Briefing