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Will the UK Enter a Technical Recession in 2026?

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Last Updated 7 hours ago

Manifold"There is a 32% chance that the UK will enter a technical recession in 2026."Jul 06, 2026

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Tejvan Pettinger"But, the current oil shock is set to hit the UK particularly hard. And this is the problem, a weak economy can easily be tipped into recession."Apr 21, 2026

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deVere Group"Most economists agree a recession is unlikely in 2026, barring a worst-case scenario, but they disagree about whether growth will bounce back or disappoint."Feb 18, 2026

Devere

IMF"UK gross domestic product is set to grow by 0.8% in 2026, with this improving to 1.3% in 2027."Apr 14, 2026

AJ Bell

Polymarket"There is a 30% chance that there will be a UK recession in 2026."Jun 18, 2026

Polymarket

ICAEW"OBR’s (Office for Budget Responsibility) current forecast for GDP growth for 2026 of 1.4%."Jun 30, 2026

ICAEW

Ernst & Young"The EY UK Economic Outlook predicts 0.8% GDP growth in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027."Jul 06, 2026

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Goldman Sachs"We expect another mixed year for the UK economy in 2026, characterised by trend-like growth and further increases in unemployment, but also materially lower inflation and three more Bank Rate cuts to 3%."Jan 06, 2026

Gspublishing

Scottish Widows"Despite the lack of room for cyclical growth and the risks stemming from higher tariffs, we don’t see a recession in 2026 as a base case scenario."Apr 22, 2026

Scottish Widows Insights Hub

The Guardian"The UK economy is nearing a recession, with up to 250,000 jobs at risk by mid-2027"Apr 20, 2026

Anadolu

PwC"PwC projects that UK GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2026, before picking up to 1.6% in 2027."Oct 15, 2025

PWC

NIESR"Our baseline forecast is for UK GDP to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2026 and 1.0 per cent in 2027 – downward revisions of 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points respectively relative to our February forecast."Jun 30, 2026

Niesr

Matthew Swannell"Spiralling energy costs and disruption to supply chains will push the UK to the brink of a technical recession in the middle of this year."Apr 20, 2026

Guardian

Lines"The weight of current indicators, including above-50 PMI readings, a cautious BOE easing cycle, and a resilient labor market, tips the balance toward the UK avoiding a technical recession in 2026. "Jun 30, 2026

Lines

RSM UK"The risks to that outlook are larger than usual and heavily dependent on how the situation in the Middle East develops. But the economy has grown at an average of 1.2% through two turbulent years, and the early signs suggest that resilience will hold."Jun 30, 2026