Controversy

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When Will the Bank of England Cut Interest Rates?

Resolution:

July 31, 2024.

Resolved on Jul 31, 2024

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Last Updated 1 year ago

Andrew Bailey"It is likely that we'll need to cut bank rates in the coming quarters, possibly more so than is currently priced into markets."

Ben Broadbent"[I]t's possible Bank Rate could be cut some time over the summer."

Jonathan Haskel"I think cuts are a long way off.”

The Vanguard Group"We foresee a first rate cut in August, with total cuts of 1 percentage point in 2024."

National Institute of Economic and Social Research"[W]e expect interest rates to start falling in May of this year and reach 4.5 per cent by the end of 2024."

Capital EconomicsWe think "the first interest rate cut from the Bank of England will happen in June this year rather than in November... [and] rates will be reduced from 5.25% now to 3.00% in 2025."

Andrew Bailey“I think the next move will be a cut [to interest rates].”

Sarah Breeden"[M]y focus, and indeed the focus of many on the MPC, has shifted to thinking about how long rates need to remain at their current level."

Mel Stride“A greater decrease in inflation of course means that monetary policy might be loosened a little bit more quickly than it would otherwise be - in other words, interest rates coming down."

Huw Pill"It's not unreasonable to believe that through the summer... bank rate [cuts] will come under consideration."

Bank of England"The MPC's [Monetary Policy Committee's] latest projections indicate that monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for an extended period of time."

Adam Posen“[T]he Bank of England will need to keep interest rates higher for longer.”

Bim Afolami"We think slowing wage growth and inflation will trigger a rate cut in August."

ING Bank"We think a June rate cut is growing more likely but is far from guaranteed."

Catherine Mann"They're pricing in too many cuts... and so in some sense, I don't have to cut because the market already is."

Andrew Bailey"We need to see more evidence that inflation is set to fall all the way to the two per cent target, and stay there, before we can lower interest rates."

OECD"Monetary policy is assumed to start easing from the third quarter of 2024, with Bank Rate gradually lowered from its current peak of 5.25% to 3.75% by the end of 2025."