Controversy

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Will Global Average Temperature Reach 1.7°C or Higher Above Pre-Industrial Levels in 2027?

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Claims

Last Updated 1 week ago

"ARIMA model forecasts the 2027 global temperature anomaly at 1.480647°C, with a 95% interval of 1.341277–1.620016°C."Aug 26, 2026

Research Gate

Zeke Hausfather“Not outside the realm of possibility.”Jul 23, 2026

Nature

Carbon Brief"The developing El Niño will have its largest impact on 2027, which Carbon Brief projects to be around 1.7C above pre-industrial levels – this would comfortably set a new record for the warmest year."Jul 24, 2026

Carbon Brief

Wired"Global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that's been dubbed a relatively safe level of global warming."Jul 24, 2026

Wired

University of Graz"In 2026, Earth’s surface air temperature is expected to reach 1.62 degrees, and in 2027 even 1.71 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels."Aug 25, 2026

University of Graz

Tom Harris"If the upper-quadrant model projections materialise, 2027 could deliver the first individual month breaching +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels in human history."Jun 17, 2026

Drtomharris

The Washington Post"A global temperature of 1.76 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels in 2027 would be about 0.29 degrees Celsius higher than what’s expected based on the warming trend of the past decade."Aug 26, 2026

Washington Post

Interactive Brokers“Patrick Brown’s Brown–Caldeira model, run on the NASA GISS dataset, forecasts 2027 at 1.68°C above the 1880–1900 baseline.”Aug 13, 2026

IBKR Campus US

Michael McPhaden"It's not inconceivable that 2027 may top out at 1.7C above preindustrial levels."Aug 26, 2026

Phys

Nature"The combined impact of this historic El Niño and climate change could push global average temperatures as high as 3 degrees F (1.7 degrees C) above the pre-industrial average in 2027."Jul 27, 2026

Gizmodo

Climate Brink“The Climate Brink’s composite forecast projects the 2027 global mean surface temperature at roughly 1.72°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.”Aug 02, 2026

James Hansen"We project a global temperature record of +1.7°C in 2027."Dec 18, 2025

by James Hansen

Climate Central"The current multi-model mean forecast peaks just above 1.9°C relative to 1850-1900 pre-industrial levels by February [2027]."Mar 26, 2026

Climate Central

Money Control"Their [Climate scientists Zeke Hausfather and Andrew Dessler] calculations put the year's average temperature at around 1.76°C above pre-industrial levels."Aug 21, 2026