Claims
NCEI"There is about a 95% chance that 2026 will rank among the four warmest years on record."Jun 10, 2026
NOAA"It is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record, and very likely that it will place within the top five."Jul 08, 2026
Polymarket"There is a 52% chance that 2026 will rank number 1 among the hottest years on record."Aug 04, 2026
New Scientist"A prominent scientist has predicted 2026 will be the hottest year on record, thanks to both climate change and a powerful El Niño effect that will raise temperatures further."May 01, 2026
World Health Organization"It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record."May 26, 2026
James Hansen"If 2026 ultimately exceeds 2023 by 0.17°C, it would break the 2024 global temperature record by 0.06°C."Apr 30, 2026
Carbon Brief"Whether 2026 sets a record will depend on the dataset: the odds range from around two-in-three in NASA and Berkeley Earth data to around two-in-10 in ERA5 and one-in-10 in the JRA-3Q reanalyses."Jul 24, 2026
ClimateData"This would put 2026 in the same range as 2023 and 2025, which according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) are the second and third hottest years on record to date."Jan 14, 2026
Climate Uncensored"We infer that 2026 is likely to be the warmest year in the period of instrumental data, based on a physics-based approach with identifiable assumptions."Apr 30, 2026
Adam Scaife“The last three years are all likely to have exceeded 1.4°C and we expect 2026 will be the fourth year in succession to do this. Prior to this surge, the previous global temperature had not exceeded 1.3°C.”Dec 18, 2025
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.7.3
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 7.7.3