Controversy
Status:Open
Will at Minimum Category 4 Hurricane Make Landfall in the US Before 2027?
UNLIKELYLIKELY
Claims
Mark Vogan"I wouldn’t be at all surprised given how much warmer things are that we get a couple of strong hurricanes and possibly landfalls within the Caribbean, Gulf region this season and higher numbers than many agencies expect."May 27, 2026
Accuweather"AccuWeather now predicts 8 to 14 named storms during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, 4 to 7 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher. The forecast also calls for 3 to 5 direct impacts on the United States, including Arthur and Bertha, both of which made landfall along the Gulf Coast this year."Aug 27, 2026
National Weather Service"We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean."Aug 27, 2026
Polymarket"There is a 16% chance that any Category 4 hurricane will make landfall in the U.S. in before 2027."Aug 27, 2026
MS Amlin"There is a 27% probability of at least one Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane making landfall during the 2026 season."Jun 18, 2026
Citrus Industry"For a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the entire U.S. coastline, CSU lowered the probability from 17% in July to 16%. The probability along the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, dropped from 8% to 7%. For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, the probability decreased from 10% to 9%."Aug 06, 2026
Colorado State University"We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean."Aug 06, 2026
WeatherTiger's Hurricane Watch"There is a roughly 30% chance of at least one U.S. major hurricane landfall in 2026, which is lower than the typical 40-45%, but again, not zero."May 22, 2026
NC State University"For the second year in a row, researchers at North Carolina State University predict a hurricane season that will be in line with recent averages, with 12 to 15 named storms, six to nine hurricanes, and two to three major hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin. The Atlantic basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea."Apr 22, 2026
Atlas Forecasting"There is a 15% chance that a Category 4+ hurricane will make landfall in any U.S. state or territory in 2026."Aug 27, 2026
Artemisbm"Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) lowered its previous long-range forecast to call for 12 named tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and just 1 major hurricane for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season."Aug 07, 2026
Colorado State University"The probability of a major hurricane making landfall anywhere along the U.S. coastline this year has dropped to 17%, down from 24% in June and well below the historical average of 43% from 1880 to 2020."Jul 08, 2026
Fox Weather"The probability of a major hurricane making landfall anywhere along the U.S. coastline this year has dropped to 16%, down from 24% in June and well below the historical average of 43% from 1880 to 2020."Aug 05, 2026
Weather"In the 2023 season, the well-above-average water temperatures in the Atlantic led to the formation of 20 named storms, nearly double the forecast for 2026."Apr 16, 2026
Allianz Research"Rapid intensification events are becoming more frequent and compress the window between a manageable forecast and an emergency operational response from days to hours."Aug 27, 2026
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.13.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 7.13.0