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Will US GDP Growth Reach 2% in 2026?

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Last Updated 23 hours ago

The Conference Board"The Conference Board forecasts real GDP to increase at a 1.9% rate in 2026."Feb 01, 2026

The Conference Board

Kevin Hassett"But I would guess that by the first quarter of [2026], we'll be back at the 3% or 4% growth pace."Oct 12, 2026

Reuters

Kalshi"There is a 38.1% chance that U.S. real GDP growth will reach at least 2.1% in 2026."Oct 12, 2026

Kalshi

Allianz Global Investors"We have revised on the upside our forecast for 2026 to +2.5% on the back of a more resilient consumer, a higher credit impulse and the positive impact of AI."Oct 12, 2026

Allianz

J.P. Morgan"We expect real GDP growth to average over 3% in the first three quarters of 2026."Jan 05, 2026

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

RSM US"In the United States, a modest economic tailwind fueled by expansionary fiscal policies and rate cuts will help push growth to 2.2% in 2026."Apr 21, 2026

RSM US

Reuters"[The World Bank] predicts U.S. GDP growth will reach 2.2% in 2026."Oct 12, 2026

Reuters

DZ Bank"U.S. GDP is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2026, according to DZ BANK analysts."Oct 12, 2026

Dzbank

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis"The most recent projection showed a slight revision downward for Q4 2026 from 2.4% to 2.2%."Oct 12, 2026

Stlouisfed

Wells Fargo"All told, we look for full-year real U.S. GDP growth of 2.3% (annual average) in 2026. "Nov 19, 2025

Externalcontent

Nomura"We expect a fourth consecutive year of above-trend GDP growth, with Q4/Q4 real GDP averaging 2.4% in 2026."Jan 29, 2026

Nomura Connects

VT Markets"BNP Paribas forecasts US GDP growth of 2.7% in 2026, up from 2.1% in 2025."Mar 31, 2026

VT Markets

Goldman Sachs"U.S. GDP is projected to expand 2.5% in 2026 (fourth quarter, year over year), versus the consensus economist estimate of 2.1%, according to Goldman Sachs Research."Jan 15, 2026

Goldman Sachs

Brian Moynihan"So we moved from 2.6% growth to 2.8%, which is well above the general consensus."Jan 20, 2026

FOX News

Polymarket"There is a 50% chance that U.S. real GDP growth will reach at least 2.0% in 2026."Oct 12, 2026

Polymarket

Investing"The bank’s full-year 2026 real GDP growth forecast now stands at 2.4% on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis."Oct 12, 2026

Investing

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Webull"The 2026 growth forecast was raised to 2.0% from 1.9% in the previous report."Oct 12, 2026

Webull

UBS Global Wealth Management"We still think a 2% US GDP forecast for 2026 is too low."Oct 12, 2026

Ubs

Gregory Daco"Factoring the latest revisions to the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), we now believe the US economy is on track to advance close to 2.5% in 2026."Aug 26, 2026

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia"The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, expect 2.0% annualized growth in real GDP during the first and second half of 2026."Jun 24, 2026