Controversy

Status:Open

Will the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act be Signed Into US Law Before 2027?

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Claims

Last Updated 19 hours ago

Polymarket"There is a 5% chance of the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) being signed into law in 2026."Oct 12, 2026

Polymarket

Joshua Riezman"If I had to put a view on it, that it gets done in this session, I'm probably sub 50% right now personally, but that's not zero."Oct 12, 2026

The Block

Brian Gardner"A week ago, we thought the bill’s chances were below 20%. We now think the odds have improved to 35-40% of passing. That’s a significant improvement in a week, but we think odds are still against the bill passing in 2026."Oct 12, 2026

Stifel

Crypto Briefing"The market for the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 shows a current 39.5% probability of a YES outcome."Jul 13, 2026

Crypto Briefing

Tim Scott“At the end of the day, we win; there’s no question that this will become law. The only question is how we get it to the finish line and when does that happen. I think we have a really good shot at September.”Oct 12, 2026

Banking

Jake Claver"The Clarity Act is unlikely to pass in 2026."Oct 12, 2026

Facebook

Gautam Chhugani"Clarity is the most consequential crypto market structure bill in U.S. history, but the chances of its 2026 passing seems to be dwindling."Aug 03, 2026

Coindesk

BSCN"CLARITY Act won't pass this year!"Aug 10, 2026

The Political Group"We now put the chance the CLARITY Act becomes law by Dec. 31, 2026 at 7%."Sep 26, 2026

The Political Group

CoinDesk"As of Friday, traders gave the bill a 32% chance of passing by Dec. 31, 2026, down roughly 30 percentage points from when the market launched on Jan. 11."Jul 17, 2026

Coindesk

Yahoo Finance"Prediction market odds on the CLARITY Act passing before 2027 collapsed from nearly 75% to 50% in a single week."May 26, 2026

Yahoo Finance

KuCoin"Galaxy Digital, one of the more closely watched institutional voices in crypto policy analysis, just cut its probability estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law this year from 75% down to 60%."Jun 09, 2026

KuCoin

Hester M. Peirce"I am still optimistic that it will get done this summer."Oct 12, 2026

Cryptonews

CoinDesk"If the partisan rift remains when the senators vote, it's highly unlikely that Clarity can become law this year."Aug 08, 2026

CoinDesk

Forbes"It does seem like CLARITY may be dead in the water because after the summer recess, the focus is going to be on the midterms and not on trying to get a complicated bill like CLARITY passed."Oct 12, 2026