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Will H5N1 Bird Flu Achieve Become a Pandemic by 2030?

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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention"While the current public health risk is low, CDC is watching the situation carefully and working with states to monitor people with animal exposures."Jan 09, 2026

Avian Influenza (Bird Flu)

Ed Hutchinson“The question about reassortment is not ‘When is it going to happen?’, but ‘Why isn't it happening all the time?’ Because there are so many influenza variants out there, and we don't really know the barriers to it taking off.”Jun 15, 2026

BBC Science Focus Magazine

Marc Johnson“This virus might not go pandemic, but it is really trying hard, and it sure is getting a lot of opportunities.”Apr 30, 2025

The Economic Times

Jacob Lemieux" I think we are living next to a volcano, and it may erupt or it may not. But we need to prepare for the possibility of a pandemic."Aug 04, 2026

Harvard

Adrian Esterman"There will be another pandemic — that’s a near certainty over time. A reasonable estimate is around a ~10% chance in the next 5 years. The most plausible current candidate is H5N1 avian influenza, which is why many countries are already stockpiling vaccines."Apr 15, 2026

Bruce D. Walker“I think we’re all wondering whether this is a minor blip or if we are facing what may turn into an existential threat.” Aug 04, 2026

Harvard

Marie-Anne Rameix-Welti"What we fear is the virus adapting to mammals, and particularly to humans, becoming capable of human-to-human transmission, and that virus would be a pandemic virus."Aug 04, 2026

Reuters

"We believe that H5N1 is unlikely to become pandemic at least in the near future. "Oct 08, 2024

Ncbi

World Health Organization"The global public health risk posed by Gs/Gd-like high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) viruses as low."May 18, 2026

WHO

Gregorio Torres"We need to be prepared to respond early enough. But for the time being, you can happily walk in the forest, eat chicken and eggs and enjoy your life. The pandemic risk is a possibility. But in terms of probability, it's still very low."Aug 04, 2026

Reuters

Dr. Angela Rasmussen“It could become a pandemic tomorrow, and it could never become a pandemic. We just don’t know."Jan 16, 2025

Science News

Robert Goldstein"As infectious disease doctors and public health professionals, we worry all the time, but I think we’re in the four to five range right now. I do think we need to have a healthy worry about H5N1, but the risk to humans at this moment remains low."Aug 04, 2026

Harvard

RGA"Scientific evidence suggests the current threat of a major new human pandemic from H5N1 is low."Apr 11, 2025

Default

Marie-Anne Rameix-Welti"The positive point with flu, compared to COVID, is we have specific preventative measures in place. We have vaccine candidates ready and know how to manufacture a vaccine quickly." Aug 04, 2026

Reuters