Will Abdul El-Sayed Win Michigan's 2026 Senate Election?

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Last Updated 20 hours ago

Mike Rogers“We have enough votes in the bank to win this race.”Jul 23, 2026

ABC17NEWS

VotePredictor"There's an 82% chance Abdul El-Sayed will win the 2026 US Senate election in Michigan."Oct 12, 2026

VotePredictor

Pollsmax"Abdul El-Sayed has a 61.5% chance of winning."Oct 12, 2026

Pollsmax

PredictIt"There's a 69% chance the Democrats will win the 2026 US Senate election in Michigan."Oct 12, 2026

PredictIt

Scott Tranter“El-Sayed’s got the momentum... Michigan’s going to start voting in about a month on the early side. And look, everything you know about Michigan – about a third of that voting to come in before Election Day. So Mike Rogers’s time is running out.”Sep 22, 2026

Kalshi News

Polymarket"There's a 70% chance Abdul El-Sayed will win the 2026 US Senate election in Michigan."Oct 12, 2026

Polymarket

Mark Penn"It is highly likely that you’re gonna find 5% of those Stevens voters who are going to switch to the other side, and that alone would give a margin of victory to Rogers."Aug 06, 2026

Mediaite

Hugh Hewitt"Republicans need only turn out the same electorate as voted in 2024 and Rogers will win the 2026 race."Aug 06, 2026

FOX News

Abdul El-Sayed"I’m going to beat Mike Rogers by seven.”Oct 12, 2026

Politico

The Economist"Now that the race pits Dr El-Sayed against Mike Rogers, a former congressman, the party’s probability of victory has fallen to 48%—a decline so steep that Democrats’ chances of controlling the Senate dipped from 53% to 49%.”Aug 07, 2026

Political Wire

Oddschecker"Prediction markets give Abdul El-Sayed a 65% chance to win the seat, while Mike Rogers has climbed to 36%"Oct 12, 2026

Oddschecker

PredictMarketCap"There's a 74% chance Abdul El-Sayed will win the 2026 US Senate election in Michigan."Oct 12, 2026

PredictMarketCap

Sabato's Crystal Ball“We continue to believe that progressive Abdul El-Sayed (D) will underperform what a Democratic Senate candidate could or should get in Michigan in a year like 2026... yet we still have viewed him as a soft favorite to win, and we’re going to formalize that by pushing his race to Leans Democratic.”Sep 22, 2026