Virginia Sets Special Election for Connolly's Congressional Seat

Virginia Sets Special Election for Connolly's Congressional Seat
Above: Glenn Youngkin at the Road to Majority Faith and Freedom Conference in Washington, DC, on June 22, 2024. Image copyright: Andrew Leyden/Contributor/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Spin

Democratic narrative

This special election in a safely blue district serves as the first real test of Democratic voter sentiment following Donald Trump's return to the White House, particularly in a district with a high concentration of federal workers facing potential government cuts. The race will determine whether voters prefer a more pro-establishment approach or a more disruptive one, challenging traditional politics.

Republican narrative

Republicans must not overlook the fact that this is a safely blue district. After all, Virginia's 11th Congressional District is actually a winnable suburban swing seat despite its reputation. The GOP must choose the right candidate, one that is unafraid to stand for MAGA in Virginia, to flip this race red.

Metaculus Prediction

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