Portugal set for snap general election as PM faces confidence vote
GuardianMAR 18
Portugal Set for Third Election in Three Years as Government Loses Confidence Vote
Above: Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro leaves meeting with the country's president at Belém Palace in Lisbon on March 12, 2025, a day after his motion for a confidence vote was defeated in Parliament. Image copyright: Patricia de Melo Moreira/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Despite corruption allegations, the AD has governed Portugal effectively, delivering economic growth, budget surpluses, and reduced debt. The Spinumviva inquiry also lacks evidence, and Montenegro's coalition maintains public support. Ironically, ex-Socialist Prime Minister António Costa, who resigned over Operation Influencer, still faces corruption charges tied to a USB drive scandal, underscoring the AD's relative stability.
Left narrative
The AD's minority rule has been a disaster, weakening Portugal's democracy and fueling Chega's exponential rise by exploiting economic woes and nostalgia for the early 20th-century Salazar era. Corruption scandals and austerity have eroded trust in the liberal-conservative establishment, proving it incapable of stability. True left-wing policies are needed to counter the far-right and restore social justice.
Right narrative
The AD's narrow 2024 win stemmed from fear of a Socialist resurgence, not support for their rule. Their corruption scandals, like the Twins Affair and Montenegro's company dealings, expose their failures, boosting Chega's anti-establishment appeal. Rising violent crime has also fueled public demand to halt mass migration, a Chega priority, suggesting their no-confidence vote could further erode AD’s grip and strengthen the nationalists.