Canadian Election: Conservative Leader Poilievre Loses Ottawa-Area Seat

Canadian Election: Conservative Leader Poilievre Loses Ottawa-Area Seat
Above: Canadian Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and his wife Anaida at an election night event at the Rogers Centre in Ottawa, early Tuesday, April 29, 2025. Image copyright: Kamara Morozuk/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

Liberal Party narrative

Poilievre's defeat reflects voters' rejection of his Trump-style populism and "Canada First" rhetoric, which alienated moderate voters, particularly public servants in his Ottawa-area riding who feared job cuts under a Conservative government. The Liberal campaign successfully linked Poilievre to Donald Trump at a time when Canadians were concerned about Trump's tariff threats and comments about annexation.

Conservative Party narrative

The Conservative loss was more a strategic misstep than a rejection of conservative ideas. Despite gaining seats and achieving their highest vote share since 1988, the party focused its pre-election campaign on Trudeau — who resigned in March — leaving Poilievre without his intended opponent. Carney’s rise, combined with Trump’s trade war threats, reshaped the race, galvanizing the Left and creating a wave of opposition the Conservatives were powerless to stop.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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