Global Markets Plunge as Trump's Tariffs Sparks Trade War

    Global Markets Plunge as Trump's Tariffs Sparks Trade War
    Above: Pedestrians walk past an electronic board showing the numbers of the Nikkei Stock Average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange along a street in Tokyo on April 4, 2025. Image copyright: Kazuhiro Nogi/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

    The Spin

    Anti-Trump narrative

    Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs have ignited widespread global economic turmoil, prompting JP Morgan to raise the likelihood of a recession to 60%. These aggressive measures jeopardize decades of free trade progress, risking a global stagflation crisis. This ill-conceived decision has disrupted supply chains, driven up consumer prices, and wiped out trillions in market value.

    Pro-Trump narrative

    While pessimists predict disaster, Trump's tariffs can trigger "expansionary uncertainty" in competitive markets. Unlike traditional assumptions, businesses aren't stagnating — they're racing to adapt by reshoring production and rebuilding supply chains. This short-term turbulence is a necessary process that will ultimately yield extraordinary growth as manufacturing revives and trade relationships are recalibrated.

    Metaculus Prediction


    Public Figures


    The Controversies



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