The Sanctions Against Russia Are Starting to Work
AtlanticDec 07, 2023
US Places Further Sanctions on Russian War Capabilities
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The Facts
As many as 300 firms and individuals were on Wednesday placed on US sanctions lists in a renewed effort to blunt Russia's war machine.
Nearly 200 entities were sanctioned by the US Dept. of the Treasury and more than 80 were sanctioned by the US Dept. of State. Alongside entities from Russia, the list included roughly 20 names from China or Hong Kong, as well as non-Russian entities located in Belgium, Azerbaijan, Slovakia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.
The Spin
Narrative A
When Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, the world came together to send him a message by placing many of the firms that prop up Russia's military under sanctions. While it could initially be argued that they didn't go far enough or they had little impact, two years later we're starting to see the measures restrict Russia's military as well as the livelihood of its general population, turning them against their leader. The sanctions are having a positive impact.
Narrative B
Despite the West's big talk on sanctions, ask any politician about dual-use equipment being used by Russia and they'll go silent. In fact, when you look at who is providing Russia with this kind of gear, you'll find that it's not firms from China or Iran — but indeed companies in the US and Europe. Part of the problem is that despite the wording of the sanctions, there are insufficient means of enforcing the measures. As a result, sanctions are having little impact.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that Russia will impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.