Poll: Biden Leads Trump for First Time in a Month

Poll: Biden Leads Trump for First Time in a Month
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The Spin

Democratic narrative

The guilty verdict in the Manhattan hush money trial has already taken its political toll on Donald Trump as some voters were quick to reconsider their support for the criminally convicted former president. With both candidates locked in a tight race for the White House, this modest shift toward Biden may prove pivotal for his victory.

Republican narrative

The Democratic lawfare campaign against Trump in a bid to prevent his return to the White House has backfired. First, the indictments bolstered support for the former president in GOP primaries. Now, hopes that a guilty verdict in the New York trial would help Biden in the race waned as support for Trump has grown stronger even in deep blue Virginia.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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