Is weakening support for Ukraine war following a historical pattern?
Responsible StatecraftMar 05, 2023
In an exclusive interview with the Associated Press, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on Tuesday that the potential shift of political forces in Washington — particularly in light of the 2024 elections — could have drastic consequences for Ukraine if support for intervention in the country were to run dry.
Zelenskyy did not mention the current Republican frontrunners — former Pres. Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — by name, but said: "The United States really understands that if they stop helping us, we will not win." Both Trump and DeSantis have made statements questioning long-term support for Ukraine, though DeSantis walked back his comments after criticism from elements within his party.
As of last month, an AP-NORC poll suggested that less than half of the US population supported providing US weapons to Ukraine. It was one of many indicators that public support is gradually eroding for all aspects of the Biden administration's Ukraine policy. Developing war weariness among the public is a commonly repeated trend, previously seen towards conflicts in South Korea, Vietnam, and Afghanistan. Pres. Biden should tread carefully, as electoral victory for the Democrats may soon rely on him reneging on his pledge to support Kyiv for 'as long as it takes.'
Despite the shift in GOP attitudes concerning the conflict in Ukraine — which appears to indicate a veering towards unfettered isolationism — the 2024 election is a long way off, and there is very little the Trump-DeSantis factions can currently do to affect military spending. In addition, Western intervention can continue even without support from inside the White House, through initiatives such as the IMF's recently announced $16B loan package to help rebuild the Ukrainian economy. US and Western support for Kyiv will remain stalwart.
There is a 50% chance that the US will provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft by Dec. 20, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.