The Facts
- Former Pres. Donald Trump has taken the lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical GOP presidential nomination race, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds.
- The poll, released on Friday, shows that DeSantis has dropped 27% since December.
- DeSantis’s previous 14-point advantage at the end of last year has fallen to a 13-point deficit, and he now trails Trump 51% to 38% among likely Republican and Republican-leaning Independent primary voters in a hypothetical race.
Sources Split
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The Spin
Pro-Trump narrative
Trump's popularity has surged in the polls recently. In fact, he has successfully cashed in on the controversy of his recent indictment in March, with his campaign raising millions of dollars. As much as critics may hope for his political downfall, he doesn't appear to be going anywhere anytime soon.
Republican narrative
While DeSantis has fallen behind in the polls, he still has a lot of time left to course correct — he hasn't even officially launched a presidential bid yet. Trump was somewhat weakened when many of the candidates he endorsed in the November midterm elections were defeated by Democrats. DeSantis is a promising alternative to Trump and may win over the "Never Trumpers" both in and outside the Republican Party.
Metaculus Prediction
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