The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
With two high-level diplomatic meetings in recent months, both the US and Saudi Arabia have demonstrated a commitment to diplomatic progress. Former Pres. Trump had success in similar agreements, and Biden has the respect to make a true diplomatic breakthrough to further the security for the region and the globe at large.
Establishment-critical narrative
Any possible US-brokered deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel would be time-consuming, difficult, complex, and politically farfetched. The Saudis would likely prefer Trump as an arbiter, Republicans wouldn't want to support Biden, and Democrats disagree with the Kingdom's poor human rights record. It is unlikely that the US has the political capital to make this breakthrough happen anytime soon.
Metaculus Prediction
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