UN: 3.3B Live in Countries Spending More on Debt Than Health, Education

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The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The Western-backed Ukraine war and the pandemic haven't caused a debt crisis but rather have exposed the inadequacy of the global banking system. Since the US dollar remains the only global reserve currency, third-world countries are forced to deal with the consequences of rising costs of goods and skyrocketing Federal Reserve interest rates. This system, while overflowing the pockets of the major Western financial institutions, pushes developing nations into a black hole of debt and subsequent social unrest.

Pro-establishment narrative

Despite common accusations against the West, China's meddling in the financial affairs of developing regions — most notably in Africa — cannot be swept under the rug. The countries that have recently defaulted on their debt, namely Zambia and Sri Lanka, held as much as 50% of their debt from China. In response, however, Beijing has refused to forgive its loans or even join international debt relief efforts. When China balks at such relief programs, it pushes these struggling nations to the brink of collapse, destroying any opportunities to reignite their economies.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

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