The Facts

  • Almost three months into Ukraine's counteroffensive, multiple reports have confirmed that Ukrainian forces have now broken through the first line of Russian defenses in the Zaporizhzhia region.
  • Speaking to Jordanian media late last week, US Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that Ukrainian progress has been "bloody, long, and slow." However, he added that: "Specifically on the axis of advance that they're attacking on right now, they've attacked through the first main defensive belt."
  • These Ukrainian gains have largely centered around the Zaporizhzhia village of Robotyne. Though Ukrainian forces claimed to have liberated Robotyne last week, parts of its territory — which remained under Russian artillery fire — were still disputed.

Sources Split


The Spin


Narrative A

Now that Ukraine has broken through the first line of Russian defenses — the most heavily mined and protected — its progress going forward will be much swifter. Ukrainian forces will keep pushing Russia out of its territory and carry on advancing towards the Sea of Azov.

Narrative B

Ukraine has made modest gains, but they have come at the expense of significant losses and equipment. Ukraine is unlikely to drive Russia out of all its territory, and if Kyiv overextends itself in aim of this goal, it may leave itself exposed to a new Russian offensive sweeping through its territory.


Metaculus Prediction

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.18.0

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.18.0