Opinion | Population Decline Isn’t a Problem (and ‘More Babies’ Isn’t a Solution)
New York TimesJan 30, 2023
A study commissioned by the Club of Rome published Monday reported the world population could peak at 8.6B in 2050 before declining rapidly to 7B in 2100 based on current economic trends.
The study estimates the population could even peak at 8.5B in 2040 before declining to around 6B by 2100 if extreme poverty is eliminated and economic development is accelerated through an unprecedented investment in poverty amelioration.
Slowing population growth does not pose an existential threat to the planet. In fact, it brings many economic and environmental benefits to a world struggling with the threat of climate change. A rapidly-growing population just creates more pressure on the natural environment and man-made infrastructure alike.
Overpopulation is an overstated problem. We can't solve our climate change or environmental issues by having fewer babies. With fewer people around, who will come up with the next world-bending ideas? Despite popular rhetoric, overpopulation isn't the threat stagnating birth rates — which don't just represent a crisis for a specific country but are an existential threat to the entire planet — are.
More than half of the global population increase between now and 2100 will occur in low- or lower-middle-income countries. We can’t expect those countries to make the necessary investments to provide for their growing populations. It’s up to the rest of the world to bridge wealth inequality between the global haves and have-nots to make sure marginalized countries can provide their populations with a good quality of life. While there might not be a global population bomb, there will certainly be a global population imbalance.
There's a 50% chance that it would take at least 855 years to recover the population above 1B again if the human population declines to fewer than 100M, according to the Metaculus prediction community.