Report: Israel, Hamas Set to Reach Hostage Deal

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The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Though the Israel Defense Forces are getting closer to the hostages, a tactical assault on Hamas to free the captives could lead to the deaths of many Israelis. Tel Aviv doesn't have the mandate to make its people collateral damage in the war against Hamas. It must do whatever it takes to bring its citizens home immediately, including a prisoner exchange or a temporary ceasefire, which will also see much-needed aid reach Gaza.

Pro-establishment narrative

While freeing hostages is of the utmost important, Israel must not succumb to international pressure. Hamas has a history of forcing unfair deals, and if entered into carelessly, it could use the ceasefire to regroup and rearm itself and perpetuate its dominance in Gaza. Any negotiation with the terrorists could be destructive to Israel's future, which is why it must proceed cautiously.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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