Manchin Prompts Speculation of Presidential Bid

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The Spin

Republican narrative

While he may have given the Democrats a slight Senate majority, the party's political victory provided by Joe Manchin may be wearing off. The Democrat from a deeply red state has shown his disfavor for Biden before, and this time it may be felt at the 2024 presidential and Senate levels. The GOP has been calling for Manchin to switch parties for a reason: he and his constituents are growing more and more conservative and anti-Biden by the day. Manchin could be a nightmare for Biden in 2024.

Democratic narrative

Since Biden announced his reelection campaign in April, the incumbent Democrat has raised more than $72M through just 38 fundraisers. While past campaigns have raised more in the same time frame, the Biden campaign has rolled out his reelection bid slowly and will only pick up the pace. Furthermore, despite questions surrounding his age, Biden blows every GOP challenger out of the water in the polls. Manchin poses little long-term threat to the Biden campaign.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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