The Facts
- It has been revealed that First Republic Bank customers withdrew more than $100B from their accounts in the first three months of 2023, amid concerns about the health of the global banking system.
- The San Francisco-based bank says its deposits have fallen by over 40% since the end of December. Shares in the bank fell by more than 20% after the drop in deposits was announced.
- The bank has stated that withdrawals stabilized this month, but that deposits have continued to fall slightly. Rival banks have fared significantly better, reporting just single-digit declines in deposits during the first quarter.
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The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
First Republic is in a hot mess right now, but it's not entirely the bank's fault. Its high-net-worth depositors were spooked by the fall of Silicon Valley Bank — a similar midsized, Bay Area lender that catered to a similarly wealthy clientele, which caused a run by rapidly pulling uninsured funds. Thankfully several major Wall Street banks have deposited over $30B in funds into the bank, effectively saving it and protecting a huge part of the US economy.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US is divesting from working people and is instead investing in banks and venture capitalists. In reality, banks don't keep money safe, they gamble with it. Wall Street risks the money of working Americans time and time again and, when this strategy inevitably goes wrong, the government bails them out. The system needs to change.
Metaculus Prediction
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