EU Adopts 11th Round of Sanctions on Russia

Image copyright: European Union [via European Council press office]

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

These new sanctions continue to punish Russia for its illegal invasion of Ukraine. Seeking to punish third countries who seek to circumvent sanctions by selling EU goods to Russia is a logical evolution of the restrictions. This is a move in the right direction.

Establishment-critical narrative

The EU's ability to sanction third countries selling EU goods to Russia was severely weakened during negotiations. The EU knows it cannot start sanctioning countries outside of its jurisdiction — understanding that if it did so, it would drive those countries straight to the Kremlin. It can't tolerate that fate.

Pro-Russia narrative

The West's sanctions have backfired against them. Russia has continued to trade independently of the West and its economy continued to grow over the last year. The West, meanwhile, has suffered a cost-of-living crisis driven by soaring energy bills.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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